Putin's path to self-destruction

By Park Jung-won

With each day's passing, it becomes increasingly obvious that Russia can never win its war with Ukraine. Vladimir Putin has caused the death or injury of over 100,000 young Russians and has spent nearly $70 billion in the execution of this unjust war. The notion that Russia held tight control over global energy and grain markets has also proved to be a fiction. Much of the world is ever more united in condemning Russia, and even China is quietly trying to distance itself from the mire Russia has created.

Putin's image as an iron man fighting the evil West to defend his country has degenerated into one of an inept imbecile. Once viewed as one of the world's foremost military powers, Russia now appears to be nothing more than a paper tiger. Countries that had been squarely in Russia's sphere of influence are now snubbing Putin. Ukraine is calling for Russia's veto power as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council to be stripped, while Germany and Japan have renewed their pushes to gain permanent seats.

Certainly, what has transpired is not at all what Putin and his cadres initially expected. The current outcome, however, is an inevitable result of the nature of Putin's regime. Contrary to Putin's argument, the root of this war was caused by his "rational" attempt to consolidate the domestic political power base that has allowed him to rule Russia for decades.

Here the term, "rational," might seem misleading, but it makes more sense when one recognizes the inherent conflict between Putin's autocratic regime and liberal reforms. It is irrational for such a personalized regime such as Putin's to adopt liberal, democratic reforms because their effects could pose a dangerous threat to his regime's survival.

Thus, Putin made a "rational" judgment to promote his regime's stability by appealing to Russian nationalism in a geopolitical context, rather than implementing comprehensive domestic reforms that could bring political, economic and social benefits to Russia. To the extent that such a coldly calculated choice is conducive to solidifying Putin's regime, it can be called "rational."

However, outside of Russia, the decision seems anything but rational. It marked the point where Putin started digging his own grave. Indeed, even just before Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, most security experts failed to predict that he would engage in such a reckless adventure. With the disappearance of independent media and opposition groups in Russia, as a result of his regime's brutal suppression, Putin had no way of assessing public opinion accurately.

Even if he had been surrounded by competent aides, he could not avoid relying on distorted public opinion created by his regime's own propaganda. The absence of an effective informational feedback mechanism that could be provided by independent media and opposition groups leaves autocratic regimes such as Putin's vulnerable to their own ignorance in the long term.

Seeing no way out, Putin's only option at this point is to double down on the war. He has ordered 300,000 reservists to be called up, essentially declaring a massive escalation. Putin has made clear his intention to end this war in any way that will somehow save face, betraying his pride. However, as the failures mount, one cannot guarantee that the broad class of elites in Russia who have buttressed Putin's regime until now will extend their support indefinitely.

The more Putin acts out, the more welcome Ukraine becomes. For Ukraine, the infrastructure of which has already been nearly destroyed, a partial restoration of its territory is not something it is willing to accept. Rather it will only be satisfied when all the areas illegally taken by Russia since 2014 have been restored. Ukrainians firmly realize that their country will never be secure in the future unless it achieves a "decisive victory" over Russia.

A recent poll showed the Ukrainians' unity of resistance against Russia: about 78 percent cannot imagine relations with Russia improving for at least a generation. Ukrainians have gained greater confidence than ever and their soldiers have probably never been so well armed. They are full of patriotism and have gained sophisticated combat experience from fighting Russian forces.

In World War II, Nazi German forces blockaded Leningrad (now St. Petersburg), Russia's second-largest city, from September 1941 to January 1944. More than 1 million Soviet troops were killed, captured or went missing during this period. The total number of casualties, including civilians, exceeded 4 million. The great composer, Dmitri Shostakovich, created his seventh symphony in the midst of the siege, which strongly united the citizens and troops who were surrounded by the Germans. That defiance was made possible because it was an unjust German invasion of the Soviet Union.

The current war, however, is an unjustified aggressive invasion against Ukraine of Putin, by Putin and for Putin, which is in and of itself an international criminal act. Putin has been forcibly taking his own people and plunging them into meaningless battles without justifiable cause. Even if an additional 300,000 reservist forces are forced to the fronts, would they fight with determination under these conditions?

Not a chance. Given his psychopathic personality, Putin might in desperation resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Nobody knows whether he will really use them. Maybe he does not know, either. But even in this worst case, the United States and the rest of the West will only become more united. Putin has put himself on an irreversible path to self-destruction.

Park Jung-won (park_jungwon@hotmail.com), Ph.D. in law from the London School of Economics (LSE), is a professor of international law at Dankook University.