Bernard Rowan
China's proposal of a "freeze for freeze" deserves some comment. I'll eventually say it needs a thaw. China claims to want a nonnuclear peninsula. Never mind her nukes or those of America and other players. China proposes the North halt her nuclear tests (freeze) in exchange for the U.S. and South Korea ending their military exercises (for freeze). Trump claims Xi knows it's a nonstarter. The Chinese government continues to state it as a serious proposal. The North needs to agree but has already shown its contempt for the idea.
The United States and South Korea have conducted military exercises for decades. The names change (Team Spirit, Foal Eagle, Key Resolve, Ulchi Freedom Guardian, Vigilant Ace and what have one), but they go on and on and on. The North routinely denounces them as foreshadowing war or a devastating response from the bastion of enlightenment that is nationalist juche freedom (in dregs), but to no benefit. This year China conducted various maneuvers and exercises too. The North's normal existence is a glorified military maneuver. China and Russia have danced a ballet or two together, with more promised, and have claimed to deter the United States or North Korea.
There's bitter cold in this freeze for freeze notion. China wishes to consolidate her regional position with any U.S. agreement to drawback exercises. China would like South Korea as well as North Korea to hew to her side. Nowhere does China propose to stop military exercises or to scale back her force postures. Russia's happy to play spoiler, using calculated tactics.
Analyses of the proposal abound: China wants to wriggle away from Trumpian pressure for China "to do more." China wants to forestall anything that could result in the North's collapse or destruction and an American-allied nation landing at its gates. China wants to prevent World War III in its backyard (or in its yard).
The North is China's largest trade partner, and its landmass is a barrier to direct invasion. China isn't America's ally, and its model frames a rival global compass. It wants some counterbalance to Japan, Australia and New Zealand, India, the Philippines, and Vietnam. It wants Taiwan. It's not getting that far in the bigger picture.
China moves methodically to develop spheres of influence long-term. Touch an African country, for example, and one can find Chinese money, capital and human investments, and thriving relations. The Bluewater navy begins to unfold. It's built something like an island in the South China Seas that most already calculate to accept. China's military grows and reaches global respectability. China and Russia have entered various military and economic cooperation projects.
If Obama thought the American "Pivot to Asia" would be a cakewalk, he miscalculated more wildly than with the Arab Spring pipe dream. Trump's too happy to kill the gosling by jettisoning the TransPacific investment initiative. He's returning America to a bygone era of bilateralism, isolationism, and lowered credibility in international relations.
North Korea continues to unfold the third Kim diva's divine might. Frequent nuclear tests and "improvements" complement the already big conventional threats. Will Pyongyang lose it and unleash some bombs that wreak destruction? Trump claims he'll not stand it any longer. He treats us to the same. Tests, threats, maneuvers, and non-allied reinforcements and realignments buy little security. Trump doesn't perhaps know what it means, but he single-handedly galvanizes an unstable trilateral world (Russia, China, and America).
This morass of change, instability and deterrence stymies the United States and China. The frozen quality of the "freeze for freeze" tells volumes about the real thaw that's needed ― in Sino-American foreign relations. Each nation competes for (continued) global primacy. Neither can win the 21st century race. Each reduces each, and that's not good competition. In the Korean standoff melodrama, human civilization will not achieve its potential.
South Korea can't solve the cold in this freeze proposal herself. The current calls for multi-national and unconditional peace talks make sense, but I see no reason the North will play along. The Sino-American big chill needs more warmth first.
Bernard Rowan is associate provost and professor of political science at Chicago State University. He is a past fellow of the Korea Foundation and former visiting professor at Hanyang University. Reach him at browan10@yahoo.com
China's proposal of a "freeze for freeze" deserves some comment. I'll eventually say it needs a thaw. China claims to want a nonnuclear peninsula. Never mind her nukes or those of America and other players. China proposes the North halt her nuclear tests (freeze) in exchange for the U.S. and South Korea ending their military exercises (for freeze). Trump claims Xi knows it's a nonstarter. The Chinese government continues to state it as a serious proposal. The North needs to agree but has already shown its contempt for the idea.
The United States and South Korea have conducted military exercises for decades. The names change (Team Spirit, Foal Eagle, Key Resolve, Ulchi Freedom Guardian, Vigilant Ace and what have one), but they go on and on and on. The North routinely denounces them as foreshadowing war or a devastating response from the bastion of enlightenment that is nationalist juche freedom (in dregs), but to no benefit. This year China conducted various maneuvers and exercises too. The North's normal existence is a glorified military maneuver. China and Russia have danced a ballet or two together, with more promised, and have claimed to deter the United States or North Korea.
There's bitter cold in this freeze for freeze notion. China wishes to consolidate her regional position with any U.S. agreement to drawback exercises. China would like South Korea as well as North Korea to hew to her side. Nowhere does China propose to stop military exercises or to scale back her force postures. Russia's happy to play spoiler, using calculated tactics.
Analyses of the proposal abound: China wants to wriggle away from Trumpian pressure for China "to do more." China wants to forestall anything that could result in the North's collapse or destruction and an American-allied nation landing at its gates. China wants to prevent World War III in its backyard (or in its yard).
The North is China's largest trade partner, and its landmass is a barrier to direct invasion. China isn't America's ally, and its model frames a rival global compass. It wants some counterbalance to Japan, Australia and New Zealand, India, the Philippines, and Vietnam. It wants Taiwan. It's not getting that far in the bigger picture.
China moves methodically to develop spheres of influence long-term. Touch an African country, for example, and one can find Chinese money, capital and human investments, and thriving relations. The Bluewater navy begins to unfold. It's built something like an island in the South China Seas that most already calculate to accept. China's military grows and reaches global respectability. China and Russia have entered various military and economic cooperation projects.
If Obama thought the American "Pivot to Asia" would be a cakewalk, he miscalculated more wildly than with the Arab Spring pipe dream. Trump's too happy to kill the gosling by jettisoning the TransPacific investment initiative. He's returning America to a bygone era of bilateralism, isolationism, and lowered credibility in international relations.
North Korea continues to unfold the third Kim diva's divine might. Frequent nuclear tests and "improvements" complement the already big conventional threats. Will Pyongyang lose it and unleash some bombs that wreak destruction? Trump claims he'll not stand it any longer. He treats us to the same. Tests, threats, maneuvers, and non-allied reinforcements and realignments buy little security. Trump doesn't perhaps know what it means, but he single-handedly galvanizes an unstable trilateral world (Russia, China, and America).
This morass of change, instability and deterrence stymies the United States and China. The frozen quality of the "freeze for freeze" tells volumes about the real thaw that's needed ― in Sino-American foreign relations. Each nation competes for (continued) global primacy. Neither can win the 21st century race. Each reduces each, and that's not good competition. In the Korean standoff melodrama, human civilization will not achieve its potential.
South Korea can't solve the cold in this freeze proposal herself. The current calls for multi-national and unconditional peace talks make sense, but I see no reason the North will play along. The Sino-American big chill needs more warmth first.
Bernard Rowan is associate provost and professor of political science at Chicago State University. He is a past fellow of the Korea Foundation and former visiting professor at Hanyang University. Reach him at browan10@yahoo.com
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