By Bernard Rowan
Should I write a Trump retrospective, even a limited one? I'm talking about a retrospective of his recent swing through Asia. I think what we've seen with Trump's Asia Tour is just about all we're going to get. It's a Duke's mixture at best.
Trump's speech to the Korean National Assembly was long on generous if staid praise. If anything, it shows what I've previously called "Trump the dodger" at work. Having come all the way to South Korea, what could Trump point to about "strength" and "strong action"? The fleet that accompanied him represented strategic impatience. Gone was the bombast and false rhetoric of recent weeks, thanks be to someone else. His speech flatly appealed to Korea's advancement miracle by contrast with the North. And he took prudent advice not to perform a fake staring match at the DMZ.
Trump asked for movement on an improved free trade deal. Most analysts note structural factors beyond deal making account for U.S. trade imbalances with South Korea (in goods but not services). America's trade mismatches with Japan, China, and Germany dwarf that with South Korea. Asian leaders want regional initiatives, perhaps supplemented by bilateral side-conditions. Trump's "America First" theme and insistence on bilateral trade arrangements pleases his American voter base. However, it mainly reduces the American brand.
Much interest centered on meetings in Japan and China. We can see that Trump leans to Japan. He has single-handedly assured the conservative and static Abe of continued longevity. They mostly agreed to continue the alliance against North Korea. Asking Japan to buy more weapons from the U.S. is nothing. Japan now will lead the TransPacific Partnership remnant into greater progress. Trump gave Japan a pass and a gift.
Trump's proudest meetings occurred with Xi Xinping. The Chinese played sage to stroke Trump's bottomless ego. In the Hall of the People in the Forbidden City, he received the welcome of an emperor, which he isn't. He praised and bragged about the 250 billion dollars in deals with China. Many long in the works, they're mostly just on paper. We'll see how much happens.
That's a drop in the pan with China! If the news concerned deals for 250 trillion dollars over the next decade, Trump could crow big. China dwarfs America in economic potential, roughly estimated as gross national product times population (Organski and Kugler). Trump's signature great deal doesn't even amount to half of America's current annual trade deficit with China! He gave China a pass.
Pundits spill much ink on Trump's intervention to help several American shoplifters detained in China. Too little discussion occurred about the South China Seas, or of military agreements to avoid confrontation over North Korea or Taiwan. Trump tried to and did play the dealmaker. However, China still wants the US, South Korea, and Japan to stand down military exercises. That speaks volumes about Trump's diplomatic power and his Twittering back channel's efficacy.
Since his visit, Pyongyang has launched another missile, and American media and global warmongers are stoking the fires of crisis. They shouldn't equate a missile launch with a military attack. "Great powers" test missiles all the time and spend too much public money flying, mustering and submerged in all kinds of tests and maneuvers.
Trump also showed that he's a closet autocrat at heart. He stood toe-to-toe with a Philippine leader who referred to his predecessor as excrement. Two big dudes praised each other and pretended to laugh at inside jokes about the press. Trump was comfortable standing proud and tall with mostly idle talk in front of antidemocratic leaders.
The dodger leans left and right according to his view of self-interest. Even President Dodger reveals a leadership pattern. It's more the case we understand his longtime habits. Little learning shows except on tactics. Little real commitment gives to a strategy for less peace and more insecurity and mixed economic signals and results. Scavenging, juke' and jiving' and playing at the margins for self-proclaimed wins. That's Trump. Trump's subordinates mayn't compensate enough. The swing through Asia was just a dodger's gambit of the day, sadly.
Bernard Rowan is associate provost for contract administration and professor of political science at Chicago State University. He is a past fellow of the Korea Foundation and former visiting professor at Hanyang University. Reach him at browan10@yahoo.com
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Trump's speech to the Korean National Assembly was long on generous if staid praise. If anything, it shows what I've previously called "Trump the dodger" at work. Having come all the way to South Korea, what could Trump point to about "strength" and "strong action"? The fleet that accompanied him represented strategic impatience. Gone was the bombast and false rhetoric of recent weeks, thanks be to someone else. His speech flatly appealed to Korea's advancement miracle by contrast with the North. And he took prudent advice not to perform a fake staring match at the DMZ.
Trump asked for movement on an improved free trade deal. Most analysts note structural factors beyond deal making account for U.S. trade imbalances with South Korea (in goods but not services). America's trade mismatches with Japan, China, and Germany dwarf that with South Korea. Asian leaders want regional initiatives, perhaps supplemented by bilateral side-conditions. Trump's "America First" theme and insistence on bilateral trade arrangements pleases his American voter base. However, it mainly reduces the American brand.
Much interest centered on meetings in Japan and China. We can see that Trump leans to Japan. He has single-handedly assured the conservative and static Abe of continued longevity. They mostly agreed to continue the alliance against North Korea. Asking Japan to buy more weapons from the U.S. is nothing. Japan now will lead the TransPacific Partnership remnant into greater progress. Trump gave Japan a pass and a gift.
Trump's proudest meetings occurred with Xi Xinping. The Chinese played sage to stroke Trump's bottomless ego. In the Hall of the People in the Forbidden City, he received the welcome of an emperor, which he isn't. He praised and bragged about the 250 billion dollars in deals with China. Many long in the works, they're mostly just on paper. We'll see how much happens.
That's a drop in the pan with China! If the news concerned deals for 250 trillion dollars over the next decade, Trump could crow big. China dwarfs America in economic potential, roughly estimated as gross national product times population (Organski and Kugler). Trump's signature great deal doesn't even amount to half of America's current annual trade deficit with China! He gave China a pass.
Pundits spill much ink on Trump's intervention to help several American shoplifters detained in China. Too little discussion occurred about the South China Seas, or of military agreements to avoid confrontation over North Korea or Taiwan. Trump tried to and did play the dealmaker. However, China still wants the US, South Korea, and Japan to stand down military exercises. That speaks volumes about Trump's diplomatic power and his Twittering back channel's efficacy.
Since his visit, Pyongyang has launched another missile, and American media and global warmongers are stoking the fires of crisis. They shouldn't equate a missile launch with a military attack. "Great powers" test missiles all the time and spend too much public money flying, mustering and submerged in all kinds of tests and maneuvers.
Trump also showed that he's a closet autocrat at heart. He stood toe-to-toe with a Philippine leader who referred to his predecessor as excrement. Two big dudes praised each other and pretended to laugh at inside jokes about the press. Trump was comfortable standing proud and tall with mostly idle talk in front of antidemocratic leaders.
The dodger leans left and right according to his view of self-interest. Even President Dodger reveals a leadership pattern. It's more the case we understand his longtime habits. Little learning shows except on tactics. Little real commitment gives to a strategy for less peace and more insecurity and mixed economic signals and results. Scavenging, juke' and jiving' and playing at the margins for self-proclaimed wins. That's Trump. Trump's subordinates mayn't compensate enough. The swing through Asia was just a dodger's gambit of the day, sadly.
Bernard Rowan is associate provost for contract administration and professor of political science at Chicago State University. He is a past fellow of the Korea Foundation and former visiting professor at Hanyang University. Reach him at browan10@yahoo.com
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