By Bernard Rowan
As if the Kim Jong-un era didn't seem bad enough, now we have the era of Donald Trump as American president. These two chief executives have treated the public to an exchange of insults, taunts, and threats that leave many struggling to understand the prospect of war on the peninsula. Some see the American president as poised to attack the North. Many worry about the North's response to any pre-emptive strike.
Recently, Trump tweeted that North Korea "understands only one thing." His chief diplomat said diplomacy would continue until "the first bomb drops." Trump hosted a dinner with many top military brass and spoke of "the quiet before the storm." Kim has made all kinds of usual and unusual counterclaims and promises. Oh, and the North has continued to conduct missile and bomb tests. The United States, South Korea and their allies have continued their exercises. China has conducted many maneuvers. The Russians poise and pose too, including Putin's puppy.
The United States isn't planning to attack North Korea. There are high stakes in any pre-emptive strike, even one meant to reduce the entirety of North Korea to a fallout zone. No one should think South Korea's existence, Seoul and the entire country, is a tactical chip in some equation of "getting tough." The entire point of the allied forces' posture is to deter a North Korean attack on South Korea, not to prompt one.
There's scarce proof that we have the ability to wipe out the North's conventional forces. All I've heard of late is a call to station Aegis missile systems on destroyers off the coast of North Korea ― to stop missiles targeting Guam.
It's a sober fact that military relations on the peninsula remain in conventional deterrence. Nothing about the nuclear posturing of the North or the reality of nuclear forces changes this equation. It just adds to the potential calculus of lost lives, lost investments, and guilt and shame following any attack. The key players don't want peace enough, and they haven't the means to stop the North without unacceptable costs and death.
So what's up with Trump and Kim Jong-un? I've written a lot about the North Korean leader up until now, so this column focuses on Trump. The answer is that Trump is what American culture used to call "a dodger."
Aaron Copeland recorded a famous 19th century folk song, "The Dodger", sung by William Warfield. "Yes, the candidate's a dodger, yes, a well-known dodger, yes, the candidate's a dodger, and I'm a dodger too." It adds, "He'll meet you and treat you, and ask you for your vote. But look out boys, he's a dodgin' for your note . . ."
The dodger lies (artfully) to get what he wants. Trump wants to keep pressure on the North and China. He's threatened the North with annihilation. He's threatened to penalize countries doing business with the North. He wants China to do more to hem in the North. His actions have had some impact, with China agreeing to close or end businesses in the North.
Trump uses rhetoric to pressure allies and cause Kim to lose face. In doing so, he masks a strategic goal to keep the current world order. His gambit is to gain more Chinese and allied investments and relieve fiscal burdens on the U.S.A.
Trump probably thinks he's winning this game; look for him to tell more whoppers. It's a dangerous game because the North's power depends on the kinds of dodging Trump's rhetorical world masquerades. It's also dangerous because if someone calls his bluff, his dodge will look weak. Let's see if Trump follows through on his threats in application to Russia. That 20th century bad boy just gave Big Brother a support for Internet crimes with the TransTeleCom link.
Trump's not a good dodger, and his actions will decrease American power on the side of credibility in the short-term. More critical long-term capability losses will occur if his policies aren't reversed.
Trump shortchanged his grandchildren and millions of others by jettisoning the Trans-Pacific Partnership and associated global investments. He's not much of a trade negotiator, infrastructure builder, or anything more than a posturing global apprentice.
Warily take heart, friends of Korea. Trump's a dodger, not a fighter. He won't attack I say.
Bernard Rowan (browan10@yahoo.com) is associate provost for contract administration and professor of political science at Chicago State University. He is a past fellow of the Korea Foundation and former visiting professor at Hanyang University.
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Recently, Trump tweeted that North Korea "understands only one thing." His chief diplomat said diplomacy would continue until "the first bomb drops." Trump hosted a dinner with many top military brass and spoke of "the quiet before the storm." Kim has made all kinds of usual and unusual counterclaims and promises. Oh, and the North has continued to conduct missile and bomb tests. The United States, South Korea and their allies have continued their exercises. China has conducted many maneuvers. The Russians poise and pose too, including Putin's puppy.
The United States isn't planning to attack North Korea. There are high stakes in any pre-emptive strike, even one meant to reduce the entirety of North Korea to a fallout zone. No one should think South Korea's existence, Seoul and the entire country, is a tactical chip in some equation of "getting tough." The entire point of the allied forces' posture is to deter a North Korean attack on South Korea, not to prompt one.
There's scarce proof that we have the ability to wipe out the North's conventional forces. All I've heard of late is a call to station Aegis missile systems on destroyers off the coast of North Korea ― to stop missiles targeting Guam.
It's a sober fact that military relations on the peninsula remain in conventional deterrence. Nothing about the nuclear posturing of the North or the reality of nuclear forces changes this equation. It just adds to the potential calculus of lost lives, lost investments, and guilt and shame following any attack. The key players don't want peace enough, and they haven't the means to stop the North without unacceptable costs and death.
So what's up with Trump and Kim Jong-un? I've written a lot about the North Korean leader up until now, so this column focuses on Trump. The answer is that Trump is what American culture used to call "a dodger."
Aaron Copeland recorded a famous 19th century folk song, "The Dodger", sung by William Warfield. "Yes, the candidate's a dodger, yes, a well-known dodger, yes, the candidate's a dodger, and I'm a dodger too." It adds, "He'll meet you and treat you, and ask you for your vote. But look out boys, he's a dodgin' for your note . . ."
The dodger lies (artfully) to get what he wants. Trump wants to keep pressure on the North and China. He's threatened the North with annihilation. He's threatened to penalize countries doing business with the North. He wants China to do more to hem in the North. His actions have had some impact, with China agreeing to close or end businesses in the North.
Trump uses rhetoric to pressure allies and cause Kim to lose face. In doing so, he masks a strategic goal to keep the current world order. His gambit is to gain more Chinese and allied investments and relieve fiscal burdens on the U.S.A.
Trump probably thinks he's winning this game; look for him to tell more whoppers. It's a dangerous game because the North's power depends on the kinds of dodging Trump's rhetorical world masquerades. It's also dangerous because if someone calls his bluff, his dodge will look weak. Let's see if Trump follows through on his threats in application to Russia. That 20th century bad boy just gave Big Brother a support for Internet crimes with the TransTeleCom link.
Trump's not a good dodger, and his actions will decrease American power on the side of credibility in the short-term. More critical long-term capability losses will occur if his policies aren't reversed.
Trump shortchanged his grandchildren and millions of others by jettisoning the Trans-Pacific Partnership and associated global investments. He's not much of a trade negotiator, infrastructure builder, or anything more than a posturing global apprentice.
Warily take heart, friends of Korea. Trump's a dodger, not a fighter. He won't attack I say.
Bernard Rowan (browan10@yahoo.com) is associate provost for contract administration and professor of political science at Chicago State University. He is a past fellow of the Korea Foundation and former visiting professor at Hanyang University.
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