By John Burton
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This state of affairs has not necessarily been a bad thing. We have seen tensions ease on the Korean Peninsula. The possibility of war has receded. North Korea has not conducted a nuclear test or missile launch in more than a year. Inter-Korean reconciliation has blossomed with President Moon Jae-in visiting North Korea and Kim Jong-un promising to respond with a return visit to Seoul.
But can this situation last? Will it get better or worse?
The nuclear talks have stalled largely over the issue whether the U.S. should first ease sanctions and establish normal relations before North Korea begins dismantling its nuclear program as demanded by Pyongyang or whether this sequence should be reversed as demanded by Washington.
Talks involving U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the new U.S. North Korea envoy Stephen Biegun with senior North Korean negotiators have been suspended.
Even if the talks resume soon, discussions will likely get tougher since the two sides are likely to disagree over what constitutes the "complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula" as promised in the Singapore declaration. Does this mean just the removal of nuclear weapons from North Korea or an unlikely pledge by the U.S. that it will abandon any nuclear weapons that can be used against North Korea?
Moreover, North Korea hawks in Washington are starting to reassert their voices, saying that North Korea is cheating on its promises. There have been a recent spate of U.S. intelligence leaks claiming that Pyongyang is continuing to produce and deploy nuclear-armed missiles at military bases around the country despite its recent closure of a test stand for new rocket engines.
But it is unlikely that we will see a move back to the situation in 2017 when it appeared the U.S. and North Korea were on the brink of nuclear conflict. This was when Trump was threatening "rocket man" with "fire and fury."
Nikki Haley, Trump's outgoing U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, let the cat out of the bag recently when she revealed in an interview with Atlantic magazine that Trump's rhetoric against North Korea amounted to a giant bluff, a play on Richard Nixon's "madman" strategy of frightening adversaries into making concessions. Haley said Trump had no intention of launching an attack against North Korea unless Pyongyang had fired a missile at or close to the U.S.
Instead, "love" now reigns between Trump and Kim. Trump plans to hold a second summit with Kim early next year despite Pyongyang's failure to start dismantling its nuclear weapons program. John Bolton, Trump's national security adviser and superhawk whose appointment was once seen as raising the possibility of a U.S. attack on North Korea, is now making excuses for Trump's "softly, softly" approach. Although the North Koreans "have not lived up to the commitments so far, that's why I think the president thinks another summit is likely to be productive," he said.
This rather benign view is likely to encourage President Moon Jae-in to continue with his rapprochement with the North despite recent worries in Seoul that such a policy would anger Washington.
Momentum in implementing tension reduction measures between the two Koreas has not slackened. In recent weeks, we have seen North and South Korea blowing up some of their guard posts in the DMZ and clearing mines as they prepare for the joint excavation of the remains of soldiers killed during the Korean War. A survey to establish rail links continues.
What has added to Moon's confidence is that he was told by Trump during the G20 summit in Argentina that he appreciated Seoul's initiatives to reduce military tensions with Pyongyang, while endorsing his middleman role in helping arrange a second Trump-Kim summit.
If Kim does visit South Korea, it would further support the reconciliation process. An inter-Korean deal to promote economic development could create favorable conditions for a Trump-Kim summit such as the U.S. agreeing to ease U.N. sanctions, provide economic aid and declare a formal end to the Korean War in return for Pyongyang presenting an inventory of its nuclear arms.
Trump appears committed to finding a way to break the current impasse. Whether he can do so will depend on whether he will be willing to make big concessions up front. One major reason why Trump will stick to his dovish North Korea policy is that it potentially represents one of his biggest foreign policy achievements. As for Kim, he may decide to cooperate knowing that Trump's eventual successor may not be so easy to deal with.
John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.
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