What to look for at the summit

By John Burton

No one believes anymore that the summit in Singapore between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will lead to Pyongyang immediately giving up its nuclear and missile programs. Many thorny issues remain such as what is meant by "denuclearization" of the Korean Peninsula. Does that mean just that North Korea would eventually dismantle its nuclear and missile programs or that the U.S. will also withdraw its nuclear umbrella from the peninsula?

Even if North Korea agrees to the U.S. interpretation of denuclearization, it will likely take months or even years of tedious negotiations to achieve that goal. In the meantime, North Korea will need to be assured that it can trust the U.S. in terms of security guarantees, while starting to receive economic benefits that makes the abandonment of its nuclear program worthwhile.

Trump seems to understand this situation and is treating the summit as a means to open serious negotiations. But a good starting point would be for Trump to declare at the summit his intention to bring a formal end to the Korean War, which he has already suggested he would do.

Trump is also showing other signs of flexibility, acknowledging that denuclearization will take time and that his policy of "maximum pressure" will not lead to new sanctions as long as talks continue.

The U.S. president appears to have accepted the advice of President Moon Jae-in that there should be a phased implementation of reciprocal steps rather than a demand that North Korea should first give up its nuclear and missile programs before it receives concessions.

Moon has apparently convinced Trump that Kim is serious about denuclearization in some form. Trump may be even willing to accept that a tough complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization (CVID) process may not be necessary if North Korea takes concrete actions to end its nuclear program. That could be accompanied by China, South Korea and Russia being allowed to resume offering economic aid to Pyongyang.

But to receive this economic aid, the U.S. will almost certainly demand that North Korea freeze the programs and outline a realistic timetable for their dismantlement that might be overseen by monitors from the International Atomic Energy Agency.

In return, the U.S. would promise not to undertake "provocative actions" as long as the negotiations continue. Signs of U.S. restraint could range from Trump no longer engaging in personal insults with Kim to scaling back joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises, including ending the deployment of nuclear-capable B-52 bombers in the exercises.

These early steps would test whether Kim is really committed to trading his nuclear weapons in return for economic benefits without greatly weakening U.S. leverage if he fails to adhere to his promises.

More difficult challenges will eventually follow. This includes first capping North Korea's nuclear and missile activities and later dismantling its nuclear arsenal. There might also be negotiations later to eliminate Pyongyang's chemical and biological weapons program and reducing its conventional armed forces.

But Trump should be given credit for jump starting the process toward denuclearization by agreeing to meet Kim at the beginning of negotiations rather than at their end. This provides needed momentum, which has been derailed in the past due to bureaucratic infighting on both sides, while establishing the precedent for more summits in the future to keep progress going if talks become stalled at lower levels.

Trump's willingness to meet face-to-face with Kim could prove particularly effective given the preference for top-down decision making in Korea. But for Trump to succeed, he must follow a clear strategy that would not be subject to the unpredictability that has characterized his administration. Only by following a consistent course, can Trump retain regional trust and confidence in U.S. leadership. If Trump resumes his vacillation, it might give Kim a moral advantage in seeking support from China and South Korea.

While a continuation of the president's capricious approach cannot be ruled out, Trump knows he has much at stake in making the summit and its aftermath a success. Even if he returns from Singapore without immediate concrete results, Trump is likely to declare that he has achieved a diplomatic breakthrough due to his famed deal-making skills. Apparent progress on the North Korean issue will help boost hopes that the Republican Party can keep control of Congress in the mid-term election, while serving as a distraction from Trump's involvement with "Russiagate."

There are many skeptics in Washington who believe that Trump is being taken for a ride by the North Koreans. That is still an open question. But if Trump's bold initiative pays off in terms of reducing the North Korean threat to the U.S. and northeast Asia, he should be recognized for having accomplished something significant.

John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is now a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.