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WASHINGTON ― Watch out for Japan. Also watch out for China. And watch out for nukes. These days, in Northeast Asia, everyone has to watch out for everything with increasing trepidation.
It may seem heartening to Americans that Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has initiated a brand new "strategy" for defense against Japan's enemies, near and far. In Washington, the cognoscenti in the White House, Pentagon and State Department can be happy that Japan at last is committed to picking up its share of the load, planning to increase defense spending from 1 percent to 2 percent of the country's gross domestic product, which topped $5.4 trillion for 2022. In five years, according to plan, Japan's military budget could double its current level of about $47.2 billion for the current fiscal year.
Koreans, among others, may not be so thrilled to see Japan rising again militarily. Memories of Japanese colonial rule over Korea burn deep in the Korean psyche. South Korea may find common cause with Japan against North Korea, but then again, we may be sure many South Koreans will also look with misgivings on an immense Japanese military build-up. Who can trust the Japanese, years from now, while fighting off the North Koreans, to stay away from South Korea? It's easy to imagine a return if not to Japanese rule, at least to an unequal partnership in which the Japanese play a dominant role.
But a resurgence of Japanese militarism is not the only concern. In Seoul, President Yoon Suk Yeol has said it might be a good idea for South Korea to have its own nuclear weapons. At least he's considering the possibility. As long as "they" have them, why not "us"? Looking far ahead, it's not hard to imagine a war in which North and South Korea fire tactical nukes against one another in a battle to the death on both sides.
The Pentagon has promised, repeatedly, to defend the South with its "nuclear umbrella," but who can be sure the Americans will really come to the rescue? And would South Korea want to go on as a military dependency of the United States when it's already a massive arms producer, capable of meeting most of its own military needs?
In the web of alliances and "commitments," one great question is what's China doing or likely to do? China now has so many internal issues and problems, including the spread of COVID-19, that it would be quite surprising if President Xi Jinping were to order an invasion of the off-shore island province of Taiwan as he's been threatening. China, however, has not only a huge army but also an expanding nuclear stockpile. The Chinese are fabricating still more warheads, and China's missiles can deliver nukes to targets anywhere in the region.
In North Korea, Kim Jong-un has also been talking about firing tactical nukes. He can do nothing of the sort, however, without Xi's endorsement. It's hard to believe that Xi would go along with Kim's dream of attacking America's two northeast Asian allies, South Korea and/or Japan, when China does a roaring business with both of them as well as the United States.
Kim knows full well an attack on anyone would be catastrophic, an invitation for the Americans to go to war with the full approval of much of the rest of the world with the notable exception of the North's only friends and allies, China and Russia. As far as the Chinese are concerned, Kim can order missile tests and maybe another nuclear test, but that's about it.
Against this background, if war does not seem imminent, it's at least a danger for which both Japan and South Korea have to be prepared. But could they fight as allies? President Biden seemed delighted with Kishida's new defense strategy when they met last Friday at the White House. In response to intimidation by China and Russia in the form of intrusions into Japan's air defense identification zone and threats from North Korea, the Japanese will be acquiring hundreds of Tomahawk missiles and more warplanes, including drones, from the U.S. to retaliate against their enemies.
All of this puts South Korea in a difficult position. Spurred on by the Americans, the South Korean and Japanese navies have conducted joint exercises, and they're also exchanging intelligence information. As long as Japan refuses concessions on so many other differences springing from the era of Japanese rule over Korea, however, we may be sure Koreans will look with suspicion if not alarm on the prospect of Japan's renaissance as a major military power.
Donald Kirk (kirkdon4343@gmail.com) writes from Seoul as well as Washington.
