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These grim fates should be no surprise: All Korean presidencies end badly. Late-term, Korean presidents are at risk of impeachment, exile or assassination. Post-term, suicide, death sentences or jail sentences for themselves, their family members and their aides, beckon.
The verdict last Friday was damning. At least, it was damning against presidential crony Choi Soon-sil and presidential aide An Chong-bum, even though both have already been jailed: The judge's two hour sentencing speech referred to them both as much as to the ex-president herself.
It sets critical important precedents for South Korean leaders.
One key learning point is that asking or "coercing" companies to fund or support national projects ― such as sports or sportspersons ― can have criminal repercussions. In fact, meeting company heads for discussions behind closed doors can prove fatal.
Another is that blacklisting persons ― to be clear, making them illegible for state financial assistance ― is criminal.
Some may cheer these events. Others may not. Among the latter, I suggest, should be President Moon.
For him, a genteel retirement of speaking opportunities, good deeds and autobiography writing appears ― from all previous experience ― to be an ever-more distant dream. Particularly so when the political pendulum swings the other way, as it eventually will.
My suggestion to the current president ― who is, as far as I know, a perfectly decent fellow ― is to hire a high-powered, fully-briefed, well-connected legal aide to steer him clear of all dodgy business and persons. This aide should be at his side, at all times, on all business, 24-7 ― like a bodyguard.
In fact, given that the legal system has taken down more presidents than assassins, I suggest that this new Blue House role be dubbed "legal bodyguard." Or possibly, "legal risk auditor" or "presidential protector against future crimes."
The aide should ideally be a lawyer, rather than politician or bureaucrat. He/she must have powers that supersede the presidential chief of staff, the prime minister, all ministers and any lowly aide. After all, the foregoing persons must be considered potential criminals.
And it is not just the political sphere that is a minefield.
Given that Park's downfall resulted largely from her association with Choi, and given that so many other presidents have been legally entrapped due to the malfeasances of family members, the "legal bodyguard" should command an elite team overseeing the president's wife and family members. Ditto the president's chums, and any business associates who might incriminate him, down the line.
Of course, the team cannot operate independently. There also needs to be a team overseeing its activities: "The auditors of the auditors," or perhaps "The praetorian guard."
Moon is fortunate in that there are no Olympic ― or World Cup-level events looming over South Korea's horizon at present ― sports foundations can be deadly. And he needs to carefully oversee generous disbursement of state funds. Certainly, if I were a struggling artiste, I would hire a lawyer to ensure a steady supply of government cash.
Alas, it may be too late. Vernacular media reports that the government is already severing funds to think tanks and to individuals therein who do not lean in its ideological direction. While this may not be exactly "black listing" it is (if proven), essentially the same thing: Withdrawing funds on the basis of ideological bias.
Given all this, Moon is advised to legally prepare for his ex-presidency, well in advance. Presidents may be above the law, but ex-presidents are subject to its full force ― in spades.
Andrew Salmon (andrewcsalmon@yahoo.co.uk) is a Seoul-based reporter and author.