By Andrew Salmon
So, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in, firmly backed by U.S. President Donald Trump, have granted us an Olympic breathing space amid the tensions roiling the peninsula. With Pyongyang abruptly announcing that it will come to PyeongChang ― something Moon has long been pressing and hoping for ― spiraling tensions look to, at least temporarily, evaporate.
I may be a naive dolt, but I consider this to be, on balance, a good thing. However, the cynics are out in force.
Some are quibbling with South Korea's offer to pay logistic expenses for the (very large) contingent the North is sending South. Others fear that Moon is a hapless "simp" who will be "played" by the crafty Kim. Hawks snarl that the suspension of winter drills degrades the alliance's military readiness. And the babbling chorus of curmudgeons talks down any negotiations with North Korea as wasted time.
The first issue is frankly inconsequential. South Korea is one of the richest nations on earth, North Korea one of the poorest, and the monies spent make no real difference to either state. The sanctions Seoul is talking about lifting during the Games look likely to relate to regime individuals, who might form part of the delegation the North will be sending, so allowing them freedom of travel.
Those who insist that a temporary freeze in joint military drills is impossible to grant have forgotten that the Clinton administration did exactly this. The interregnum did not degrade the capabilities of the U.S. or South Korean armed forces, but did permit some promising diplomatic maneuvers to take place. That those initiatives did not ultimately bear fruit may have has as much to do with a change of administration in the US as with North Korea perfidy.
The conviction that military considerations trump diplomatic considerations is questionable: if we are not at actual war, carrots and sticks have equal weight. To those who talk down all talks with the North, I offer you Churchill: "To jaw-jaw is better than to war-war."
I am not suggesting we all sit down and sing "Kumbaya," while dispatching genteel maidens to traipse across the DMZ to bond with their northern "sisters." (Though I don't see how either of these initiatives would do any harm.)
And yes, the challenges ahead are gargantuan. Even amid the overall bonhomie of the North-South talks last week, the Northern delegation bristled when the South gingerly raised denuclearization.
The risk of North Korea playing the "peace" and "ethnic nationalism" cards ― cards with real traction among the South Korea public ― to leverage the U.S. and South Korea apart is real and should not be discounted. But while some segments of the Southern public go "ga-ga" at any apparent Northern amity, I am unconvinced that Moon is as gullible or anti-U.S. as some paint him. I think (and hope) he will recognize such a ploy for what it is.
Let us dream a dream. Perhaps ― just perhaps ― there might be some kind of breakthrough during the Games. Perhaps, related parties (notably, Pyongyang, Seoul and Washington) can reach some agreement, on something. For example, they might agree to continue negotiations through the customarily tense spring exercise season.
Should we not give this rare diplomatic opportunity a chance?
And even if a significant breakthrough is likely just a pipe dream, the Winter Games are real.
The Olympics is a festival of sport, fun, goodwill and globalism. The irony taking place on a divided peninsula that is one of the tensest geopolitical flashpoints on earth should be overlooked by nobody. In ancient Greece, warring states held a temporary truce during the Olympics. We should borrow a leaf from their playbook.
Above all, we should do everything in our power to ensure that this all-too-brief carnival of peace and engagement takes place in the most ideal environment possible. Call me a pathetic naif if you wish, but for their efforts on this front, I applaud Moon, Trump and (more grudgingly) Kim.
And after the Games? Well, I doubt if the legion of curmudgeons, cynics and hawks will be disappointed for long. Harsh realities will almost certainly intrude soon enough.
Andrew Salmon (andrewcsalmon@yahoo.co.uk) is a Seoul-based reporter and author.
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I may be a naive dolt, but I consider this to be, on balance, a good thing. However, the cynics are out in force.
Some are quibbling with South Korea's offer to pay logistic expenses for the (very large) contingent the North is sending South. Others fear that Moon is a hapless "simp" who will be "played" by the crafty Kim. Hawks snarl that the suspension of winter drills degrades the alliance's military readiness. And the babbling chorus of curmudgeons talks down any negotiations with North Korea as wasted time.
The first issue is frankly inconsequential. South Korea is one of the richest nations on earth, North Korea one of the poorest, and the monies spent make no real difference to either state. The sanctions Seoul is talking about lifting during the Games look likely to relate to regime individuals, who might form part of the delegation the North will be sending, so allowing them freedom of travel.
Those who insist that a temporary freeze in joint military drills is impossible to grant have forgotten that the Clinton administration did exactly this. The interregnum did not degrade the capabilities of the U.S. or South Korean armed forces, but did permit some promising diplomatic maneuvers to take place. That those initiatives did not ultimately bear fruit may have has as much to do with a change of administration in the US as with North Korea perfidy.
The conviction that military considerations trump diplomatic considerations is questionable: if we are not at actual war, carrots and sticks have equal weight. To those who talk down all talks with the North, I offer you Churchill: "To jaw-jaw is better than to war-war."
I am not suggesting we all sit down and sing "Kumbaya," while dispatching genteel maidens to traipse across the DMZ to bond with their northern "sisters." (Though I don't see how either of these initiatives would do any harm.)
And yes, the challenges ahead are gargantuan. Even amid the overall bonhomie of the North-South talks last week, the Northern delegation bristled when the South gingerly raised denuclearization.
The risk of North Korea playing the "peace" and "ethnic nationalism" cards ― cards with real traction among the South Korea public ― to leverage the U.S. and South Korea apart is real and should not be discounted. But while some segments of the Southern public go "ga-ga" at any apparent Northern amity, I am unconvinced that Moon is as gullible or anti-U.S. as some paint him. I think (and hope) he will recognize such a ploy for what it is.
Let us dream a dream. Perhaps ― just perhaps ― there might be some kind of breakthrough during the Games. Perhaps, related parties (notably, Pyongyang, Seoul and Washington) can reach some agreement, on something. For example, they might agree to continue negotiations through the customarily tense spring exercise season.
Should we not give this rare diplomatic opportunity a chance?
And even if a significant breakthrough is likely just a pipe dream, the Winter Games are real.
The Olympics is a festival of sport, fun, goodwill and globalism. The irony taking place on a divided peninsula that is one of the tensest geopolitical flashpoints on earth should be overlooked by nobody. In ancient Greece, warring states held a temporary truce during the Olympics. We should borrow a leaf from their playbook.
Above all, we should do everything in our power to ensure that this all-too-brief carnival of peace and engagement takes place in the most ideal environment possible. Call me a pathetic naif if you wish, but for their efforts on this front, I applaud Moon, Trump and (more grudgingly) Kim.
And after the Games? Well, I doubt if the legion of curmudgeons, cynics and hawks will be disappointed for long. Harsh realities will almost certainly intrude soon enough.
Andrew Salmon (andrewcsalmon@yahoo.co.uk) is a Seoul-based reporter and author.
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