By Andrew Salmon
"Tensions are spiking" around the Korean peninsula ― again. Global media are issuing dire Armageddon scenarios ― again. Social media is alive with conjecture about what dire steps Pyongyang or Washington will take next ― again. Anxious friends and relatives are calling Seoul and asking expatriates for reassurance ― again.
Sigh. Given the frequency of "spiking tensions," it is time for an expat form letter. Allow me...
Dear Mum and Dad/Dear Son and Daughter/Dear Colleague (DELETE AS APPROPRIATE):
Thank you for your concern. Let me (yet again) reassure you: Nobody in Seoul is digging bunkers. Nobody is hoarding bottled water or instant noodles. There are no air raid drills or missile alerts. Neither US nor ROK troops are on full alert. Local capital markets ― those hyper-sensitive indicators of risk ― have barely moved. (In fact, as of this month, foreign ownership of Korean stock is at an all-time high of over 33 percent.) And the shops, bars and restaurants here are doing business as usual.
None of this indicates impending doom.
True: Extra US military assets have been deployed to the region. However, this is common in times of "spiking tensions." (Note: These "tensions" actually affect only a handful of politicians, generals, diplomats and journalists ― barely a few thousand persons in a nation of 51 million.) It is not suggestive of imminent war. No advance combat indicators ― major US reinforcements arriving in Korea, the evacuation of US civilian personnel; security lock-downs at US bases in Korea and region-wide ― are being noted.
Please, stop giving credence to hysterical global and social media commentary. Do you remember the exact same fears in 2013? When ― despite warnings of the 1953 armistice being rescinded; of a return to Korean War combat; of fiery apocalypse ― nothing actually happened?
Yes, everyone has gone haywire over US President Donald Trump and his recent vitriol aimed at Kim Jong-un. Don't panic! He was merely stating what former US presidents have said ― warning North Korea of US resolve, etc, etc. The only difference is he was using the bellicose rhetoric North Korea uses endlessly. Common sense should tell you: A war of words and a war of weapons are very different things.
Moreover, for both sides the risk-reward ratio regarding commencing hostilities does not add up.
If the North Koreans really take on the Americans, such as with a missile strike at Guam, they are throwing their regime and their national existence into the balance. They got away with a lot of provocations ― seizing spy ships, shooting down spy planes, murdering US troops with axes ― in the 1960s and ‘70s when the US was mired in Vietnam. Today's US military is far stronger and more confident, while North Korea's conventional military has been degraded. And Beijing recently stated that it will not support Pyongyang if it aggresses.
For the United States: A pre-emptive strike may be able to take out a few missile launch sites but will not be able to degrade all of Pyongyang's mobile launchers. And they may destroy nuclear production facilities, but will almost certainly be unable to destroy existing fissile stockpiles, currently estimated to be capable of making 60 warheads. Meanwhile, Pyongyang could retaliate against South Korea, which could draw Washington into its nightmare scenario: A ground war in Asia, and possibly World War III against China.
So for both sides the potential rewards of military action are low, the risks stratospheric. For this reason, war looks unlikely.
Frankly, if North Korea wanted to cause chaos in the South ― or annihilate it ― it could do so, deniably, with neither artillery nor missiles.
Agents could plant bombs in economic targets like Samsung factories, sending financial markets haywire. Agents could release biological weapons into water supplies or subway ventilation systems, killing thousands. A mini-submarine packed with nuclear materials could infiltrate Busan or Incheon harbor one dark night and press the detonator, killing millions.
There is no defense against such threats. But in six decades, such things have not transpired. That should tell you a thing or two.
So don't panic! I will keep calm and stay in Seoul.
Sincerely -
ADD NAME.
PS. Of course, I have been wrong before…
Ends
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Sigh. Given the frequency of "spiking tensions," it is time for an expat form letter. Allow me...
Dear Mum and Dad/Dear Son and Daughter/Dear Colleague (DELETE AS APPROPRIATE):
Thank you for your concern. Let me (yet again) reassure you: Nobody in Seoul is digging bunkers. Nobody is hoarding bottled water or instant noodles. There are no air raid drills or missile alerts. Neither US nor ROK troops are on full alert. Local capital markets ― those hyper-sensitive indicators of risk ― have barely moved. (In fact, as of this month, foreign ownership of Korean stock is at an all-time high of over 33 percent.) And the shops, bars and restaurants here are doing business as usual.
None of this indicates impending doom.
True: Extra US military assets have been deployed to the region. However, this is common in times of "spiking tensions." (Note: These "tensions" actually affect only a handful of politicians, generals, diplomats and journalists ― barely a few thousand persons in a nation of 51 million.) It is not suggestive of imminent war. No advance combat indicators ― major US reinforcements arriving in Korea, the evacuation of US civilian personnel; security lock-downs at US bases in Korea and region-wide ― are being noted.
Please, stop giving credence to hysterical global and social media commentary. Do you remember the exact same fears in 2013? When ― despite warnings of the 1953 armistice being rescinded; of a return to Korean War combat; of fiery apocalypse ― nothing actually happened?
Yes, everyone has gone haywire over US President Donald Trump and his recent vitriol aimed at Kim Jong-un. Don't panic! He was merely stating what former US presidents have said ― warning North Korea of US resolve, etc, etc. The only difference is he was using the bellicose rhetoric North Korea uses endlessly. Common sense should tell you: A war of words and a war of weapons are very different things.
Moreover, for both sides the risk-reward ratio regarding commencing hostilities does not add up.
If the North Koreans really take on the Americans, such as with a missile strike at Guam, they are throwing their regime and their national existence into the balance. They got away with a lot of provocations ― seizing spy ships, shooting down spy planes, murdering US troops with axes ― in the 1960s and ‘70s when the US was mired in Vietnam. Today's US military is far stronger and more confident, while North Korea's conventional military has been degraded. And Beijing recently stated that it will not support Pyongyang if it aggresses.
For the United States: A pre-emptive strike may be able to take out a few missile launch sites but will not be able to degrade all of Pyongyang's mobile launchers. And they may destroy nuclear production facilities, but will almost certainly be unable to destroy existing fissile stockpiles, currently estimated to be capable of making 60 warheads. Meanwhile, Pyongyang could retaliate against South Korea, which could draw Washington into its nightmare scenario: A ground war in Asia, and possibly World War III against China.
So for both sides the potential rewards of military action are low, the risks stratospheric. For this reason, war looks unlikely.
Frankly, if North Korea wanted to cause chaos in the South ― or annihilate it ― it could do so, deniably, with neither artillery nor missiles.
Agents could plant bombs in economic targets like Samsung factories, sending financial markets haywire. Agents could release biological weapons into water supplies or subway ventilation systems, killing thousands. A mini-submarine packed with nuclear materials could infiltrate Busan or Incheon harbor one dark night and press the detonator, killing millions.
There is no defense against such threats. But in six decades, such things have not transpired. That should tell you a thing or two.
So don't panic! I will keep calm and stay in Seoul.
Sincerely -
ADD NAME.
PS. Of course, I have been wrong before…
Ends
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