The Korea Times
amn_close.png
amn_bl.png
National
  • Politics
  • Foreign Affairs
  • Multicultural Community
  • Defense
  • Environment & Animals
  • Law & Crime
  • Society
  • Health & Science
amn_bl.png
Business
  • Tech
  • Bio
  • Companies
  • World Expo 2030
amn_bl.png
Finance
  • Companies
  • Economy
  • Markets
  • Cryptocurrency
amn_bl.png
Opinion
  • Editorial
  • Columns
  • Thoughts of the Times
  • Cartoon
  • Today in History
  • Blogs
  • Tribune Service
  • Blondie & Garfield
  • Letter to the Editor
amn_bl.png
Lifestyle
  • Travel & Food
  • Trends
  • People & Events
  • Books
  • Around Town
  • Fortune Telling
amn_bl.png
Entertainment & Arts
  • K-pop
  • Films
  • Shows & Dramas
  • Music
  • Theater & Others
amn_bl.png
Sports
  • Hangzhou Asian Games
amn_bl.png
World
  • SCMP
  • Asia
amn_bl.png
Video
  • Korean Storytellers
  • POPKORN
  • Culture
  • People
  • News
amn_bl.png
Photos
  • Photo News
  • Darkroom
amn_NK.png amn_DR.png amn_LK.png amn_LE.png
  • bt_fb_on_2022.svgbt_fb_over_2022.svg
  • bt_twitter_on_2022.svgbt_twitter_over_2022.svg
  • bt_youtube_on_2022.svgbt_youtube_over_2022.svg
  • bt_instagram_on_2022.svgbt_instagram_over_2022.svg
The Korea Times
amn_close.png
amn_bl.png
National
  • Politics
  • Foreign Affairs
  • Multicultural Community
  • Defense
  • Environment & Animals
  • Law & Crime
  • Society
  • Health & Science
amn_bl.png
Business
  • Tech
  • Bio
  • Companies
  • World Expo 2030
amn_bl.png
Finance
  • Companies
  • Economy
  • Markets
  • Cryptocurrency
amn_bl.png
Opinion
  • Editorial
  • Columns
  • Thoughts of the Times
  • Cartoon
  • Today in History
  • Blogs
  • Tribune Service
  • Blondie & Garfield
  • Letter to the Editor
amn_bl.png
Lifestyle
  • Travel & Food
  • Trends
  • People & Events
  • Books
  • Around Town
  • Fortune Telling
amn_bl.png
Entertainment & Arts
  • K-pop
  • Films
  • Shows & Dramas
  • Music
  • Theater & Others
amn_bl.png
Sports
  • Hangzhou Asian Games
amn_bl.png
World
  • SCMP
  • Asia
amn_bl.png
Video
  • Korean Storytellers
  • POPKORN
  • Culture
  • People
  • News
amn_bl.png
Photos
  • Photo News
  • Darkroom
amn_NK.png amn_DR.png amn_LK.png amn_LE.png
  • bt_fb_on_2022.svgbt_fb_over_2022.svg
  • bt_twitter_on_2022.svgbt_twitter_over_2022.svg
  • bt_youtube_on_2022.svgbt_youtube_over_2022.svg
  • bt_instagram_on_2022.svgbt_instagram_over_2022.svg
  • Login
  • Register
  • Login
  • Register
  • The Korea Times
  • search
  • all menu
  • Login
  • Subscribe
  • Photos
  • Video
  • World
  • Sports
  • Opinion
  • Entertainment & Art
  • Lifestyle
  • Finance
  • Business
  • National
  • North Korea
  • 1

    Korea's Coast Guard apprehends 22 Chinese after illegal entry attempt

  • 3

    Ruling party vows to investigate China's alleged influence operations

  • 5

    TREASURE takes flak for excluding Dokdo from its Japan tour map

  • 7

    SEVENTEEN's unique approach to artistry: A deep dive into self-production and collaboration

  • 9

    Koreans' happiness rising slowly but surely: presidential panel

  • 11

    Korea crashes out of medal contention in men's basketball

  • 13

    Korean shipbuilders seek lead over Chinese rivals in selling LNG carriers to Qatar

  • 15

    30 out of 74 major financial companies lack female board member

  • 17

    Traffic on major expressways eases on final day of holiday

  • 19

    BTS' Jungkook to release first solo album 'Golden'

  • 2

    Public transit fares to increase in Seoul and Busan this week

  • 4

    Genesis GV80 Coupe looks to compete with Mercedes-Benz, BMW

  • 6

    Korean steelmakers on alert over initiation of EU carbon border tariff

  • 8

    Block Party returns to Yongsan for 2nd year

  • 10

    Korea wins gold medal in men's team Go

  • 12

    Pilot dead after civilian helicopter crashes into reservoir in Pocheon

  • 14

    Dream-pop band Nice Legs revisits Korea for Block Party

  • 16

    Dong-A Socio Group’s honorary chairman passes away at 96

  • 18

    Hyundai, Kia to extend earnings rally on strengthening dollar, solid sales

  • 20

    Lawmakers want chairmen of financial firms held accountable over misconduct

Close scrollclosebutton

Close for 24 hours

Open
  • The Korea Times
  • search
  • all menu
  • Login
  • Subscribe
  • Photos
  • Video
  • World
  • Sports
  • Opinion
  • Entertainment & Art
  • Lifestyle
  • Finance
  • Business
  • National
  • North Korea
Opinion
  • Editorial
  • Columns
  • Thoughts of the Times
  • Cartoon
  • Today in History
  • Blogs
  • Tribune Service
  • Blondie & Garfield
  • Letter to the Editor
Thu, October 5, 2023 | 08:36
Guest Column
2023: Upcoming crisis for China's policy toward Korean Peninsula
Posted : 2023-01-25 16:40
Updated : 2023-01-25 16:40
Print PreviewPrint Preview
Font Size UpFont Size Up
Font Size DownFont Size Down
  • facebook
  • twitter
  • kakaolink
  • whatsapp
  • reddit
  • mailto
  • link

By Yun Sun

The year 2022 was not what can be called a stable and peaceful year for the Korean Peninsula. The well-speculated nuclear test by North Korea did not happen, but Pyongyang conducted dozens of missile tests. Most observers still believe that another nuclear test is just a matter of time. Many might see that new nuclear test as potentially the most significant challenge for the peace and stability of the Northeast Asia region. However, for China, the geopolitical consequences of such a provocation will be the true crisis and a real test of China's policy toward the Korean Peninsula.

Sanctions, COVID-19 and the continued tension/stalemate between the U.S. and North Korea have buried Pyongyang's hopes for economic opportunities and development. Many observers see the policy of the Biden administration as a new version of "strategic patience," which keeps the door for diplomacy open without lowering the bar for engagement and increases military deterrence against North Korea while maintaining international pressure. For China, North Korea's suspension of nuclear tests and missile tests since 2018 was not received with any reciprocal reward from the international community. For instance, China and Russia both called for the U.N. to ease some sanctions but that did not occur.

Nonetheless, in the context of the U.S.-China strategic competition, China's mentality about North Korea has undergone subtle shifts. For the longest time, the North Korea nuclear issue had been regarded as a potential area of cooperation between the U.S. and China as well as an important area of strategic leverage for Beijing vis-a-vis Washington. The great power competition inevitably increased the space for North Korea to manipulate the great powers so as to improve its own external environment.

Under the circumstances, the negative outlook that China is watching for is the return to "bipolarity" in Northeast Asia, that between a "northern triangle" (China, Russia, and North Korea) and a "southern triangle" (the U.S., Japan, and South Korea). Such a scenario not only solidifies the hostility and adversarial nature of regional dynamics, but also directly undermines China's desired regional security structure, which includes a relatively neutral Japan, a relatively pro-China South Korea, and an absolutely pro-China North Korea. Such a structure would best serve China's goal of weakening the U.S.' security presence and influence in the Western Pacific.

As Brookings Institution research has noted, within this strategy South Korea is the "lynchpin." Since President Park Guen-hye's inauguration in 2013, over the past ten years, China has developed high expectations for South Korea's external alignment choices. South Korea's support of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and President Park's attendance at China's 2015 military parade both demonstrated to China the malleability of Seoul's preferences.

Although South Korea's THAAD deployment and Chinese reactions to this event sank bilateral relations, the following Moon Jae-in administration largely followed a balancing diplomacy toward the U.S. and China. Given that South Korea is a U.S. security ally, its willingness to stay neutral between the U.S. and China was of great encouragement to China.

As such, the focus of U.S.-China discord on the Korean Peninsula in past years appears to be on the North Korea nuclear issue. But in reality, the competition for South Korea, especially over influencing and shaping Seoul's strategic choices, is the most profound and contentious issue.

However, the political tide in South Korea does not appear to be in China's favor since the 2022 election. The new-in-2022 Yoon Suk Yeol administration has been seen as bringing major uncertainty to Sino-ROK relations. Yoon has vowed to pursue deterrence as the core of his policy toward North Korea ― a reinforcement of the pursuit of security cooperation with the U.S. and a 180-degree shift from the previous Moon administration's focus on engagement, diplomacy and dialogue with North Korea.

As long as South Korea does not seek engagement and reconciliation with North Korea, China's diplomatic influence is rendered obsolete and useless, hence depriving China of key leverage vis-a-vis South Korea. In addition, Yoon's commitment to democratic values in his diplomacy, his aspiration for the Indo-Pacific Strategy, as well as South Korea's cooperation with the U.S. on supply chain issues, are all touching a nerve for China.

China, so far, has adopted a pacifying policy toward the Yoon administration. Despite its concern over Yoon's policy, Beijing still arranged for the Xi-Yoon meeting in Bali during the G20 Summit. Many have wondered why China has not played hardball with Seoul yet. It could be because no serious offense like the 2016 THAAD deployment has taken place. It could also be because Yoon is still early in his presidency, while Park was already at the end of hers in 2016. In addition, South Korea's strong relationship with the U.S. has to make Beijing think twice about whether its punitive measures might push Seoul further into Washington's arms.

What this means is that any serious provocation by North Korea, especially a nuclear test, will raise questions that are impossible to answer for China's South Korea policy. If North Korea does conduct another nuclear test, South Korea will undoubtedly demand China take necessary punitive actions and sanctions measures. But in the U.S.-China strategic competition, considering North Korea's strategic value, China will expectedly fail to meet Seoul's expectations.

A disappointed South Korea will instead seek to deepen its security ties and deterrence with the U.S. to counter the North Korean threat. The more disappointed Seoul is with Beijing, the stronger it will wish to seek such cooperation with the U.S. The measures South Korea will take to defend its national security will inevitably pose a threat to China's national security. The history of the 2016 THAAD episode will inevitably repeat itself.

Therefore, for China, the risks and crises on the Korean Peninsula might begin with the North, but will eventually manifest in China's relationship with South Korea.


Yun Sun is a senior fellow and co-director of the East Asia Program and director of the China Program at the Stimson Center. This article is published in cooperation with the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament (APLN) (www.apln.network).


 
wooribank
LG
Top 10 Stories
1POSCO Future M, LG Chem, EcoPro BM hit by plunging lithium, nickel prices POSCO Future M, LG Chem, EcoPro BM hit by plunging lithium, nickel prices
2Gangnam gears up for festival showcasing various K-culture events Gangnam gears up for festival showcasing various K-culture events
3North Korea lays groundwork for US disarmament talks: experts North Korea lays groundwork for US disarmament talks: experts
4South Korea to found cyberwarfare reserve forces in 2025 South Korea to found cyberwarfare reserve forces in 2025
5Samsung targets mid-range market with affordable S23 FE Samsung targets mid-range market with affordable S23 FE
6Seoul's parks abuzz with fall festivals Seoul's parks abuzz with fall festivals
7Bank of Korea takes first step to adopt centralized digital currency Bank of Korea takes first step to adopt centralized digital currency
8Task force planned to prevent opinion-rigging on Daum portal Task force planned to prevent opinion-rigging on Daum portal
9Seoul to invest W5 tril. to become fintech powerhouse Seoul to invest W5 tril. to become fintech powerhouse
10Seoul stocks tumble on concerns over Fed's prolonged monetary tightening Seoul stocks tumble on concerns over Fed's prolonged monetary tightening
Top 5 Entertainment News
1Crime thriller, romance series set to roll out in October Crime thriller, romance series set to roll out in October
2Korean literature featured as animation works at Incheon Airport Korean literature featured as animation works at Incheon Airport
328th BIFF opens with star-studded red carpet event28th BIFF opens with star-studded red carpet event
4[PHOTOS] Kep1er returns with 'Magic Hour' to mesmerize fans PHOTOSKep1er returns with 'Magic Hour' to mesmerize fans
5TREASURE takes flak for excluding Dokdo from its Japan tour map TREASURE takes flak for excluding Dokdo from its Japan tour map
DARKROOM
  • Turkey-Syria earthquake

    Turkey-Syria earthquake

  • Nepal plane crash

    Nepal plane crash

  • Brazil capital uprising

    Brazil capital uprising

  • Happy New Year 2023

    Happy New Year 2023

  • World Cup 2022 Final - Argentina vs France

    World Cup 2022 Final - Argentina vs France

CEO & Publisher : Oh Young-jin
Digital News Email : webmaster@koreatimes.co.kr
Tel : 02-724-2114
Online newspaper registration No : 서울,아52844
Date of registration : 2020.02.05
Masthead : The Korea Times
Copyright © koreatimes.co.kr. All rights reserved.
  • About Us
  • Introduction
  • History
  • Contact Us
  • Products & Services
  • Subscribe
  • E-paper
  • RSS Service
  • Content Sales
  • Site Map
  • Policy
  • Code of Ethics
  • Ombudsman
  • Privacy Statement
  • Terms of Service
  • Copyright Policy
  • Family Site
  • Hankook Ilbo
  • Dongwha Group