Putin's recklessness and changed international order

By Park Jung-won

Does history repeat itself? Witnessing the scenes of war taking place in Ukraine caused by Russia's paranoid leader, Vladimir Putin, the world is asking this question as if haunted by the ghost of Adolf Hitler. Only hours before the invasion, Putin said he wanted peace and had no intention of invading Ukraine, despite having massed tanks near its border.

He then gave an emergency speech at 5:50 a.m. on Feb. 24 to announce "special military operations," justifying the invasion as a measure to protect Russians and Russian-speaking residents living in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. The stark difference between his words and actions is reminiscent of Hitler's own hypocrisy prior to starting World War II.

As Carl von Clausewitz, a 19th-century Prussian military theorist, said, "War is nothing but a continuation of politics with the admixture of other means." The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a historic event that is an attempt by force to alter the status quo in the international order that has been maintained since the end of World War II. Putin's immediate intention was to quickly establish a pro-Russian puppet government by occupying the capital, Kyiv, and overthrow the current Zelenskyy regime.

However, as clearly implied by his distorted perception of history in his speech to the Russian parliament in 2005 that the collapse of the Soviet empire was "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century," his real aim was much more grandiose: to restore Russia's status, shrunken since the end of the Cold War, to that of a hegemonic power in the international order that is currently dominated by the United States and China.

Putin has already failed drastically in this reckless adventure. European countries that had been relatively neutral have now sided with the U.S. The inhuman pictures of Russian troops targeting and bombing a theater where some 1,000 people, including children and senior citizens, were hiding, attacking pregnant women and children in hospitals, as well as civilians lining up to buy bread, have made Putin a "public enemy" of the international community.

This is the reason why many experts say Putin's invasion has been a real gift to President Joe Biden's administration, which had been stumbling to keep allies in lockstep to maintain a "liberal international order." Biden, who had been criticized for his substance-free "America is back" rhetoric, has now easily accomplished his goal of Western solidarity as a result of this Russia-Ukraine War.

China's president, Xi Jinping, is perhaps the only person who can stop Putin's madness. China is now in a tight spot, putting its position to a real international test. With this war, China has become alienated from the rest of the world that is furious about Russia's barbaric acts against innocent civilians in Ukraine. The only benefit that China might receive is that the U.S. has for the time being lost some of its focus on Asia.

However, there are more ominous signs for China's future. If China continues to maintain strong economic ties to Russia, its own economic interests will suffer as Western economic sanctions continue. Xi will be constantly stuck with a headache caused by its choice to align itself with an international pariah.

Of much greater worry to China, however, are the horrifying implications of the "deterrent effects" of the economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the U.S. and much of the rest of the world with regard to its own ambitions. The scale, comprehensiveness and substantial effects of sanctions, even if they also cause pain to those that employ them, have made China panic. China now knows that it would likely face a similar blowback if it invades Taiwan in the future.

The biggest reason why Russia has failed in its initial military strategic aims in this war is its underestimation of Ukraine's ability to hold together and defend itself. Russia's poor preparation in terms of military strategy and tactics has also become evident. Its front-line units have reached a point where they cannot conduct operations due to basic logistical supply problems such as food and fuel, leaving many Western security experts stunned.

Yet, considering the Russian political system, this was an inevitable result. As the former U.S. national security adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski, once said, Russia could choose to be a democracy or an empire, but not both. Russia currently finds itself with an anachronistic leader trapped in notions of chauvinistic nationalism and romantic militarism who is surrounded by a few greedy oligarchs who are unwilling to push back against his misguided policies. The failure to establish in post-Cold War Russia a democratic system that could constrain such an unbalanced leader has made this reality unavoidable.

As Russia continues to have difficulty taking over Ukraine by means of conventional warfare, it is feared Putin might eventually decide to use tactical nuclear weapons to gain a military advantage. If that were to happen, an escalation of the conflict beyond Ukraine leading to World War III would become a terrible prospect. Nevertheless, the most important question to ask amid this tragic situation should be what the Ukrainian people genuinely want.

Their humble dream is to live in a liberal democracy and market economy without suffering constant Russian security threats. The world has been inspired by the Ukrainian people's stiff resistance. Ukraine is now teaching a valuable lesson that war can never be won with military force alone. The existence of a courageous leader and patriotic citizens are the greatest driving force to win the war. For the South Korean people, who have been living next to bellicose, revisionist countries, this war is not merely a story of "others."

Park Jung-won (park_jungwon@hotmail.com), Ph.D. in law from the London School of Economics (LSE), is a professor of international law at Dankook University.