Visible hand to address invisible climate change

By Yoo Yeon-chul

The Atomic Scientists in the Science and Security Board brought up an insightful perspective in their 2022 Doomsday Clock statement last January: Nuclear weapons and climate change are equally the two most serious existential threats to humankind. Nuclear weapons are regarded as a visible and immediate threat, while climate change is considered as invisible and slow onset threat.

For this reason, taking swift action in tackling climate change is difficult. However, here comes a visible hand in addressing the climate threat: the scientific findings and suggestions made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), chaired by Dr. Lee Hoe-sung since 2015.

The IPCC is the U.N. body for objectively assessing the science related to climate change. IPCC provides each government with periodic scientific assessment reports that are published every six to seven years. The latest Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was published in 2014 and provided the main scientific input to the Paris Agreement adopted in 2015.

IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) will be completed in September 2022. The report of Working Group III (WG III), the third installment of AR6, was released on April 4, 2022.

To summarize the WG III report, it firstly explains the recent development in climate change. From 2010 to 2019, the average annual global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions were at their highest levels in human history, but the rate of growth has slowed. The costs of solar and wind energies and batteries have decreased up to 85 percent since 2010 as a result of sustained climate action.

Secondly, the report projects that without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, limiting global warming to 1.5 Celsius degrees is beyond reach.

If we continue with the current policies that have been implemented by 2020, GHG emissions are projected to rise beyond 2025. This will lead to a global warming of 3.2 degrees by 2100.

Thirdly, this report suggests that the scenario of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees requires GHG emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest and to be reduced by 43 percent by 2030. At the same time, methane emissions would need to be reduced by around one third.

In this report, the following points capture our attention.

WG III introduces a new chapter on the social aspects of mitigation, which explores the "demand side." Changes in our lifestyles and behaviors through the right policies can result in a 40 to 70 percent reduction in GHG emissions by 2050.

The decreased costs of electrified vehicles accelerate their adoption. There are growing concerns about obtaining the critical minerals needed for their batteries. Supply diversification strategies and circular material flows can reduce the risks for battery production.

Nuclear energy is classified as one of the various mitigation options to offer substantial potential to reduce net emissions. Also, agriculture, forest, and other land use can provide emissions reductions and remove and store carbon dioxide at scale. However, land cannot compensate for delayed emissions reductions in other sectors. This means that using land for reducing emissions should not overshadow the primary use of land for food security.

In order to limit global warming to below 2 degrees, there needs to be three to six times more funding for combating climate change. There is sufficient global capital that is yet to be funneled into investments related to climate change. Clear signals from the government, including stronger alignment of public sector finance, can reduce the risk of private investment.

Climate governance is most effective when it integrates across the public sectors and connects national and sub-national policy-making levels. Coordinated cross-sectoral policies can maximize synergies in response to climate change.

There is a strong link between sustainable development and climate risks. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adopted under the U.N. 2030 Agenda can be used as a basis for evaluating climate action in the context of sustainable development.

As mentioned earlier, the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) is due in September 2022. This synthesis report compiles the WG I, WG II, and WGIII report, released in August 2021, February 2022, and April 2022, respectively.

IPCC has already published 4 Special Reports on 1.5 degrees (2018), Land, Ocean and Guideline on GHG Inventories (2019).

During the leadership of Chairman Lee, IPCC is expected to produce eight reports in total, the greatest number in its history. There has been progress in the number of participating Korean experts ― from none in the First Assessment Report released in 1990, AR 6 now has 18 Korean authors, including a coordinated leading author as a result of numerous research findings. Special thanks should go to Chairman Lee, his team and many experts involved for their strenuous and timeless efforts.

The Republic of Korea is proud of the 8th U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon whose legacies are the Paris Agreement on climate change and Sustainable Development Goals adopted in 2015, and the current IPCC Chairman Lee whose legacies are eight significant reports on tackling climate change.

In this regard, Korea should make exemplary efforts and play a central role in addressing climate change and achieving the sustainable development goals. This will improve our national competitiveness for continuous prosperity in the coming age. The new administration should bear this in mind when placing the highest value on climate and energy issues as one of top national agenda.

Yoo Yeon-chul (ycyoo87@gmail.com) was ambassador for climate change at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and is now serving as vice chair of the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). He also served as Korea's ambassador to Kuwait.