North Korea needs urgent attention

By Sandip Kumar Mishra

North Korean nuclear and missile capabilities have grown alarmingly. In 2022, North Korea conducted several missile tests and according to South Korean Unification Minister Kwon Young-se, these tests seek to "tame South Korea." The unification minister feels that there are two other reasons for North Korea's incessant missile tests. One, North Korea wants to upgrade its weapons and two, North Korea wants to draw the attention of the U.S. government.

In response, South Korea had nothing new in its armor. Seoul has warned North Korea against these tests, declared that their defense is strong enough and would be further strengthened, and announced that more sanctions would be brought in to force North Korea to talk and denuclearize. South Korea keeps saying that the "ball is in the North Korean court" and they "hope" that North Korea will realize that it is better to talk.

On Oct. 1, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol said that it is time for North Korea to make a decision on denuclearization. Meanwhile, South Korea will conduct joint military drills with the U.S. to achieve an "alliance in action." Yoon has already announced his "audacious initiative" in which economic assistance has been promised in exchange for North Korea moving toward denuclearization.

The U.S. under the Biden administration first has a long review of North Korea policy and came out with an unimaginative and stale approach that the North Korean nuclear and missile programs are not acceptable and that Pyongyang should give them up. It seems that the U.S. is busy managing its contest with China, building its Indo-Pacific network, trying to articulate a China-free supply network including "Chip 4" and dealing with the Ukraine issue by isolating Russia.

These are complex issues and it would not be possible for the U.S. to bring back its attention to the North Korean issue anytime soon. Japan is another country that is directly threatened by North Korea's provocative behavior as well as the advancement of its nuclear and missile technologies. However, Japan also has no clear plan except for more sanctions and the policy of isolating North Korea.

Actually, many observers feel that South Korea, the U.S. and Japan have gone through a period of fatigue and they are not sure about their future course of action toward North Korea. In the meantime, they keep reiterating certain rhetorical positions which appear to be reasonable but are basically empty and may lead to the worsening of their position vis-a-vis North Korea.

First and foremost, it must be understood that North Korea, through its nuclear and missile tests, has been upgrading its weapons. There could be various strategic, tactical and immediate reasons for these tests but ultimately, they help North Korea to advance its technologies.

Second, it is important for South Korea, the U.S. and Japan to have defense preparedness against North Korean nuclear and missile arsenals. But such preparedness would not have much impact on the North Korean nuclear and missile programs. There must be plans and their execution to stop and, if possible, reverse it.

Third, if North Korea has been trying to draw the attention of the U.S. or the international community, it must not be avoided. We have had periods of "strategic patience" and the "principled wait" but it led to more sophistication of North Korea's arsenal rather than North Korea joining talks to denuclearize.

Fourth, the idea that more sanctions will cripple North Korea has also proved to be ineffective. A country must be connected to the world to get negatively affected by sanctions and North Korea is not. Furthermore, complete isolation of North Korea is not possible as China and now Russia would not stop formal and informal assistance to the North. Also, North Korea is a totalitarian state and any hardship experienced because of sanctions would be borne by its people and not by the regime.

Thus, waiting and hoping that North Korea will come to talk or having more sanctions and better defense preparedness is insufficient to deal with the North Korean issue. It would also be unproductive to keep oscillating between engagement and containment with the misperceived notion that both of them do not work. Engagement with North Korea is definitely a better option and one may say that it is the only realistic option.

Even though it has brought less than desired outcomes, other options have been worse. A long engagement would lead to more mutual dependency, the building of trust and normal inter-state exchanges between North Korea and other countries. In the course of things, then we may bring in the issue of denuclearization.

We must realize that getting North Korea to agree to denuclearization upfront is impossible now and it would be possible only if sufficient trust is built among the relevant parties. So, it is important for South Korea, the U.S. and Japan to realize the futility as well as the danger of their approaches and take up the issue with urgency and proactively bring their act together.

The author (sandipmishra10@gmail.com) is associate professor at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, India.