NATO summit poses both opportunities, challenges for Korea

By Kim Sang-woo

The NATO summit in Madrid on June 30 adopted a new Strategic Concept. And for the first time, NATO members included China as posing a "systemic challenge" to Euro-Atlantic security.

The most significant concern is the "deepening strategic relationship" between Moscow and Beijing.

In a statement on June 30, the White House said the inclusion of leaders from Japan, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea at the NATO summit had provided the opportunity to "strengthen the rules-based international order."

During the summit, South Korea's President Yoon Suk-yeol warned of threats to universal values at a time of new conflict and competition, referring to Russia's aggression in Ukraine and Beijing's engagement with Russia.

This was the first time a South Korean president had been invited to a NATO summit, and it showed that South Korea and other Asian democracies are being driven closer to European democracies by mutual fears of Russian and Chinese power.

While in Madrid, U.S. President Joe Biden, Yoon and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met briefly on the sidelines of the NATO summit. It was the first such trilateral meeting since 2017.

In a separate address to NATO members, Yoon reportedly said the international community must show that its will to denuclearize North Korea is stronger than Pyongyang's "reckless will to develop nuclear and missile programs."

The newly adopted Strategic Concept of NATO also states that "the erosion of the arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation architecture has negatively impacted strategic stability," specifically citing North Korea's nuclear and missile programs and use of chemical weapons.

There is undoubtedly unease in Seoul over how Beijing perceives Yoon's participation in the NATO summit. Beijing certainly views the summit with deep suspicion, as representing the emergence of a Cold War-style global alliance to contain China, particularly in light of other developments such as the AUKUS partnership comprising Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States and the potential expansion of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance.

The Yoon administration has been trying to assuage Beijing's concerns by publicly stating that South Korea has no intention to join an international anti-China coalition or become a NATO member, while also conveying its deep concern about China's growing power, its crackdown on human rights, its unwillingness to enforce sanctions on North Korea as it once did and its strong ties with Russia.

Russia was also concerned about South Korea's attendance at the summit. South Korea has already become the first Asian country to join NATO's cyberdefense unit based in Estonia. And Russia labeled South Korea an "unfriendly nation" because it joined the sanctions regime against Russia.

South Korea's concern is that its growing closeness with Japan and NATO could lead China and Russia to more actively support North Korea. Already China and Russia have been blocking further sanctions on North Korea at the U.N. since the invasion of Ukraine began. North Korea might end up being one of the big winners of the Ukraine war.

Nevertheless, it was a successful debut on the world stage for South Korea's newly elected president, earning him newfound respect internationally.

Speaking at a press conference on June 30, Biden said that Americans and the rest of the world will have to pay more for gasoline and energy as a price of containing Russian aggression. How long? "As long as it takes," he said.

However, his remarks neglected the enormous problems that he and other NATO leaders face in keeping their people committed to backing up Ukraine with money, weapons and sanctions against Russia, despite the damage it is doing to their countries and an uncertain outcome on the battlefield.

"Russia is waging two wars right now," Greg Ip writes in the Wall Street Journal. "A hot war with Ukraine whose costs are measured in death and destruction, and a Cold War with the West whose costs are measured in economic hardship and inflation."

Russian leader Vladimir Putin might fold over time in the face of a more determined West and better armed Ukraine, writes Ip, but he's wagering that Putin can "inflict a high enough short-term cost on Western consumers that political support for Ukraine will crumble."

The Madrid summit ended with an overwhelming consensus among Europeans and Asian democracies that a Ukrainian defeat would be disastrous for Europe and the world order. Yet, there are still lingering doubts about the eventual outcome.

It was tragic news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe died on July 8 after being shot while giving a speech at a campaign event in the city of Nara.

The tragedy has generated an extraordinary outpouring of sympathy for the former prime minister, both at home and abroad. No doubt, it will act as a unifying moment for the nation.

Japan's governing party and its coalition partner scored a major victory in the July 10 parliamentary election, possibly propelled by sympathy votes in the wake of the assassination.

Results in the race for the parliament's upper house showed the governing party and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, securing more than a majority. The results suggested an amendment to Japan's pacifist constitution is now a real possibility.

The Liberal Democratic Party and its junior partner as well as two supportive opposition parties together are certain to secure enough seats needed for an amendment proposal, which requires a two-thirds majority in both houses. The governing bloc already has secured support in the lower house.

The gains may allow Kishida to revise Japan's war-renouncing constitution, a dream Abe never achieved in his lifetime, but ironically may have facilitated by his death.

It may well be a game-changer for the geopolitical chessboard if Japan becomes a "normal state" that can wage war.

Kim Sang-woo (swkim54@hotmail.com), a former lawmaker, is currently chairman of the East Asia Cultural Project. He is also a member of the board of directors at the Kim Dae-jung Peace Foundation.