Why Ukraine matters to South Korea

By Kim Won-soo

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is an outright affront to the international norm of non-aggression. It is wreaking humanitarian havoc on a scale never seen in Europe since the end of World War II. Its impact on the global economy is devastating as Russia and Ukraine are major players in global fuel and food supply chains. Following the invasion, oil prices are spiking and food supplies to those in need in the developing world are at risk.

There is no doubt that the longer the invasion lasts, the more serious the humanitarian and other socio-economic consequences will be. South Koreans are watching the volatile situation in Ukraine with a great deal of concern mostly for economic and humanitarian reasons.

South Korean media has primarily highlighted those aspects of the invasion while largely disregarding the strategic side. This approach, however, is mistaken because the greatest impact will likely be felt on the strategic side. Here are three strategic considerations that require South Korea's attention.

Firstly, the invasion reflects the strategic tectonic shifts occurring along the fault lines between the United States and its allies on the one hand and China, Russia and their allies on the other. The fault lines are now drawn in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, the Middle East, the South/East China Seas and the Korean Peninsula. This phenomenon is akin to the ideological confrontation of the Cold War era.

While many in the West believe the rise of China is to blame, the bigger culprit would be the restructuring of U.S. overseas commitments. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan is a prime example. Those with an irredentist agenda on the fault lines may be tempted to change the status quo forcefully by exploiting the perceived power vacuum left by the retreating United States. This is why South Korea ― a country surrounded by powerful neighbors embroiled in intense territorial disputes ― must pay close attention to the developments in Ukraine.

Secondly, the Russian invasion raises the specter of a nuclear war, which has long been considered a taboo given how destructive nuclear weapons are. The invasion represents the first ever attempt by a nuclear power to alter the status quo by force, making threats of nuclear retaliation against any intervening power.

Russia is using the nuclear threat to deter any country from providing Ukraine with conventional military support. Without the protection of extended nuclear deterrence by a formal ally, Ukraine has fallen prey to brazen nuclear blackmail. South Korea, as a nuclear umbrella state, must learn the lesson and redouble its efforts to uphold the credibility of allied nuclear protection.

Last but not least, the invasion is the first serious stress test for the Biden administration's pivot to Asia. Before and after the invasion, Washington was quick to reassure the partners in Asia of its security commitments. It reaffirmed that the United States remained willing and ready to handle a two-front contingency.

But when it comes to demonstrating how robust one's commitment really is, actions speak louder than words. Extra effort is needed to prevent miscalculation and explore the space for diplomacy to narrow down the scope for misunderstanding. Unless Washington shows its resolve through action, those on the other side may miscalculate and embark on a risky venture.

These strategic undercurrents will continue to play out, but there are uncertainties as well. First of all, it is uncertain how the situation will evolve on the ground in Ukraine, although it is unlikely that President Putin will change course anytime soon. Therefore, it depends in large part on how determined the Ukrainian people are in opposing one of the top military powers of the world. It will also depend on how much the world can chip in diplomatically to help mediate the way-out. The type and extent of support provided by the U.S. and Europe will be crucial.

Regardless, one thing is clear. The developments in Ukraine will be closely watched by the major powers on both sides as well as the players along the fault lines. As one of the fault line states, South Korea cannot afford to remain an idle bystander to the Ukraine crisis. Korea should be clear in its solidarity with the Ukrainian people who are showing incredible courage to put up a seemingly unwinnable fight against a Goliath.

Korea needs to be steadfast in its opposition to aggression and condemn these crimes against humanity under any circumstances. Korea must be clear-minded in its analysis of the various factors influencing military decisions on the ground and how they affect the broader strategic considerations mentioned above.

Korea must be vigilant in its preparation for what its neighbors might be emboldened to do in case they learned the wrong lesson from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Korea must also step up its diplomatic efforts to expand the common ground between major powers to reduce misunderstanding.

In the Northeast Asia region, there are high stakes for Korea in helping the U.S. and China manage their growing competition responsibly and in a peaceful manner. It is imperative that the South Korean President-elect make it a priority to review Korea's policy in light of these urgent and serious strategic implications from Ukraine upon taking office.

The need for cool-headed analysis is all the greater as polarized domestic politics has long muddled public discourse on what constitutes Korea's core national interests. South Korea must do everything it can to make sure it does not become another Ukraine. It requires our unity.

Kim Won-soo (wsk4321@gmail.com) is the former under secretary-general of the United Nations and high representative for disarmament. He is now the chair of the international advisory board of the Taejae Academy (Future Consensus Institute) and the chair professor of Kyung Hee University.