By Troy Stangarone
On July 5, 1945, British citizens went to the polls for the first time since 1935. Less than two months earlier the Allies had celebrated VE Day, an achievement that should have easily garnered incumbent Prime Minister Winston Churchill another parliament in 10 Downing Street. However, when the votes were counted the Labour Party had won a 145 seat majority and Clement Attlee was Prime Minister.
The United Kingdom is not the United States, but Churchill's defeat in the aftermath of one of the most significant foreign policy successes of the 20th century highlights why foreign policy has minimal impact on elections. In the aftermath of the Second World War the election was fought on future of the country and issues such as unemployment and housing. It was domestic affairs rather than international affairs that was driving voters.
Since the end of the Second World War a similar pattern has emerged in the United States with the economy the most salient issue for voters. The 1992 election helps to illustrate this. Similar to Churchill President George H.W. Bush had successfully managed international events. He shepherded a peaceful end to the Cold War and assembled perhaps the world's largest ever coalition for the first Gulf War. Prior to the war President Bush's approval rating stood at 59 percent and would rise to 89 percent by the war's end. A little more than a year later he would lose to Bill Clinton. In exit polls voters identified the economy and jobs as the most important issue.
The one exception might be 1968 when domestic divisions over the Vietnam War were a factor in President Lyndon B. Johnson decision not to seek another term in office, but divisions over civil rights and the role of government in American lives were also dividing the country.
It's difficult to find another example of foreign policy playing such a defining role. The closest might be the 2004 election between President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry. In the aftermath of 9/11 and the Iraq War terrorism and Iraq were on the voters mind, but the economy and moral values were the two most important issues for voters that year. Though, voters favored those issues by a smaller margin than in previous presidential elections.
President Donald Trump's own election reinforces the role of the economy in driving elections. Exit polling indicate that 39 percent of Americans wanted a president that could bring about change and 47 percent wanted a president who would be more conservative than President Barrack Obama. But it wasn't a change in U.S. foreign policy that voters were focused on as 52 percent of Americans thought that the economy was the most important issue facing the country. Only 13 percent of Americans thought foreign policy was the most important issue.
Despite the limited role that foreign policy plays in U.S. elections the idea foreign policy could provide an October Surprise to shake up an election has become a recurring theme in U.S. politics. In the case of the 2020 election, North Korea has been floated as a potential candidate.
Earlier this year Harry Kazianis of the Center for the National Interest quoted a Trump campaign official as saying that "Ending the Korean War not only helps Trump achieve a historic milestone but it's something that if the timing is right, say in October, allows us a win Democrats would have a hard time blunting. How do you run against peace? You can't without looking like a sore loser or jealous."
A recent report from KINU has also suggested that North Korea could be one option for President Trump to improve his polling numbers, while former National Security Advisor John Bolton suggested in his recent book that Trump could look to North Korea for an October Surprise if his reelection campaign was in trouble.
Others such as former U.S. government official Victor Cha have suggested, however, that Trump may have already secured the foreign policy victories that he needs heading into the election with the recent peace deals between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
However, in the initial two weeks after the deal with the United Arab Emirates was announced on August 13 Biden's lead over Trump actually grew in FiveThirtyEight's poll of polls before beginning a slight decline as the race tightened. Peace in the Middle East appears to have done little to change the dynamics in a race already shaped by domestic concerns in the United States.
None of this of course precludes an "October surprise" between President Trump and Kim Jong-un, it just suggests that it is unlikely to sway voters already concerned about COVID-19, the economy, jobs, and healthcare.
Troy Stangarone (ts@keia.org) is the senior director of congressional affairs and trade at the Korea Economic Institute.
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The United Kingdom is not the United States, but Churchill's defeat in the aftermath of one of the most significant foreign policy successes of the 20th century highlights why foreign policy has minimal impact on elections. In the aftermath of the Second World War the election was fought on future of the country and issues such as unemployment and housing. It was domestic affairs rather than international affairs that was driving voters.
Since the end of the Second World War a similar pattern has emerged in the United States with the economy the most salient issue for voters. The 1992 election helps to illustrate this. Similar to Churchill President George H.W. Bush had successfully managed international events. He shepherded a peaceful end to the Cold War and assembled perhaps the world's largest ever coalition for the first Gulf War. Prior to the war President Bush's approval rating stood at 59 percent and would rise to 89 percent by the war's end. A little more than a year later he would lose to Bill Clinton. In exit polls voters identified the economy and jobs as the most important issue.
The one exception might be 1968 when domestic divisions over the Vietnam War were a factor in President Lyndon B. Johnson decision not to seek another term in office, but divisions over civil rights and the role of government in American lives were also dividing the country.
It's difficult to find another example of foreign policy playing such a defining role. The closest might be the 2004 election between President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry. In the aftermath of 9/11 and the Iraq War terrorism and Iraq were on the voters mind, but the economy and moral values were the two most important issues for voters that year. Though, voters favored those issues by a smaller margin than in previous presidential elections.
President Donald Trump's own election reinforces the role of the economy in driving elections. Exit polling indicate that 39 percent of Americans wanted a president that could bring about change and 47 percent wanted a president who would be more conservative than President Barrack Obama. But it wasn't a change in U.S. foreign policy that voters were focused on as 52 percent of Americans thought that the economy was the most important issue facing the country. Only 13 percent of Americans thought foreign policy was the most important issue.
Despite the limited role that foreign policy plays in U.S. elections the idea foreign policy could provide an October Surprise to shake up an election has become a recurring theme in U.S. politics. In the case of the 2020 election, North Korea has been floated as a potential candidate.
Earlier this year Harry Kazianis of the Center for the National Interest quoted a Trump campaign official as saying that "Ending the Korean War not only helps Trump achieve a historic milestone but it's something that if the timing is right, say in October, allows us a win Democrats would have a hard time blunting. How do you run against peace? You can't without looking like a sore loser or jealous."
A recent report from KINU has also suggested that North Korea could be one option for President Trump to improve his polling numbers, while former National Security Advisor John Bolton suggested in his recent book that Trump could look to North Korea for an October Surprise if his reelection campaign was in trouble.
Others such as former U.S. government official Victor Cha have suggested, however, that Trump may have already secured the foreign policy victories that he needs heading into the election with the recent peace deals between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
However, in the initial two weeks after the deal with the United Arab Emirates was announced on August 13 Biden's lead over Trump actually grew in FiveThirtyEight's poll of polls before beginning a slight decline as the race tightened. Peace in the Middle East appears to have done little to change the dynamics in a race already shaped by domestic concerns in the United States.
None of this of course precludes an "October surprise" between President Trump and Kim Jong-un, it just suggests that it is unlikely to sway voters already concerned about COVID-19, the economy, jobs, and healthcare.
Troy Stangarone (ts@keia.org) is the senior director of congressional affairs and trade at the Korea Economic Institute.
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