By Park Moo-jong
Do you believe that South Korea could be empty by 2750, if its birthrate continues to drop like right now?
A "shocking" report by the National Assembly Research Service in 2015 predicted the worst scenario after 735 years, warning that "Koreans will be extinct by 2750."
To be more precise, only 20,000 men and 30,000 women will be alive on the Korean Peninsula in 2305, the report warns.
This is not an absurd story at all. Already in 2006, a world-renowned population expert and demographer at Oxford University warned that South Korea could become the first country on the globe to lose its entire population because of its low birthrate.
Based on the parliamentary report three years ago, I wrote in this column about the seriousness of the then social trend not to have children. However, nothing has been done over the past years ― rather, the situation has got worse.
The latest statistics prove this dreadful phenomenon. The birthrate plunged to 1.05 per woman last year from the average 1.3 from 2000 to 2014, less than half the level of the world's average of 2.42 in 2015 and the lowest among OECD member countries.
Adding insult to injury is an easy forecast that the rate will drop below 1 this year. For reference, the nation needs a birthrate of at least 2.1 in order to keep its population level stable.
Then, what has the government done to elevate the dismal birthrate, so far. Alarmed by one of the world's lowest birthrates of 1.08 in 2006, the government hurriedly set up the Presidential Committee on an Aging Society and Population Policy that year.
Since then, the government has poured more than 100 trillion won (about $88 billion) into programs to help raise the birthrate, or the number of children a woman chooses to have in her lifetime, to no avail.
To the humiliation of the government, however, the phenomenon continues to worsen. In other words, "all medicines have proven useless." The astronomical amount of money has been spent only to provide childcare allowances.
What's the root of the trouble? In fact, the cause is quite simple. Everybody knows it, except perhaps the policymakers in the government. Society has failed to create an environment for young people to live and raise children in with less difficulty. The key elements are a job, house and education.
Young women of childbearing age tend to resist having babies as they already do more than enough housework, often on top of a full-time job.
Most newly-weds complain that they face a heavy financial burden for housing, childcare and education. If childcare costs were halved, possibly with state subsidies, they would have more babies.
The social trend of people marrying aged 35 or older, and the increase in the number of people living alone are contributing to the low birthrate. It is common sense that a woman who gets married at 35 or older has little chance to have a second baby.
Over the past 15 years, I have officiated at weddings of more than 50 children of my friends and relatives, and I said to the new husbands and wives at the end of my message: "You are standing here now thanks to your parents, guests in this hall, our society and the state. You have to return the favor. In particular, you should repay what you owe to your country: Give births to three babies at least." Only two couples did so to my great disappointment.
I'd like to quote some phrases I wrote three years ago:
In his 1967 amazing song, "What a Wonderful World," Louis Armstrong (1901-1971) sang, "… I hear babies crying, I watch them grow. They will learn much more than I will never know ..."
The legendary African-American jazz and blues singer-trumpeter was describing the bright future half a century ago as he saw babies crying and friends shaking hands and really saying "I love you" in his "wonderful world."
But we are living today in a different world, not in such a wonderful world of Armstrong. No matter how noisy or loud babies crying are, I do wish to hear them cry in my neighborhood and elsewhere.
I am looking forward to the "fundamental ways" to help raise the birthrate which the presidential committee promised to unveil in October, that should include various privileges to newlywed couples and those who give birth to two or more children such as tax reductions, support for school expenses and house rent and establishment of free state-run nursing facilities.
Park Moo-jong (emjei29@gmail.com) is a standing adviser of The Korea Times. He served as the president-publisher of the nation's first English daily newspaper from 2004 to 2014 after working as a reporter since 1974.
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A "shocking" report by the National Assembly Research Service in 2015 predicted the worst scenario after 735 years, warning that "Koreans will be extinct by 2750."
To be more precise, only 20,000 men and 30,000 women will be alive on the Korean Peninsula in 2305, the report warns.
This is not an absurd story at all. Already in 2006, a world-renowned population expert and demographer at Oxford University warned that South Korea could become the first country on the globe to lose its entire population because of its low birthrate.
Based on the parliamentary report three years ago, I wrote in this column about the seriousness of the then social trend not to have children. However, nothing has been done over the past years ― rather, the situation has got worse.
The latest statistics prove this dreadful phenomenon. The birthrate plunged to 1.05 per woman last year from the average 1.3 from 2000 to 2014, less than half the level of the world's average of 2.42 in 2015 and the lowest among OECD member countries.
Adding insult to injury is an easy forecast that the rate will drop below 1 this year. For reference, the nation needs a birthrate of at least 2.1 in order to keep its population level stable.
Then, what has the government done to elevate the dismal birthrate, so far. Alarmed by one of the world's lowest birthrates of 1.08 in 2006, the government hurriedly set up the Presidential Committee on an Aging Society and Population Policy that year.
Since then, the government has poured more than 100 trillion won (about $88 billion) into programs to help raise the birthrate, or the number of children a woman chooses to have in her lifetime, to no avail.
To the humiliation of the government, however, the phenomenon continues to worsen. In other words, "all medicines have proven useless." The astronomical amount of money has been spent only to provide childcare allowances.
What's the root of the trouble? In fact, the cause is quite simple. Everybody knows it, except perhaps the policymakers in the government. Society has failed to create an environment for young people to live and raise children in with less difficulty. The key elements are a job, house and education.
Young women of childbearing age tend to resist having babies as they already do more than enough housework, often on top of a full-time job.
Most newly-weds complain that they face a heavy financial burden for housing, childcare and education. If childcare costs were halved, possibly with state subsidies, they would have more babies.
The social trend of people marrying aged 35 or older, and the increase in the number of people living alone are contributing to the low birthrate. It is common sense that a woman who gets married at 35 or older has little chance to have a second baby.
Over the past 15 years, I have officiated at weddings of more than 50 children of my friends and relatives, and I said to the new husbands and wives at the end of my message: "You are standing here now thanks to your parents, guests in this hall, our society and the state. You have to return the favor. In particular, you should repay what you owe to your country: Give births to three babies at least." Only two couples did so to my great disappointment.
I'd like to quote some phrases I wrote three years ago:
In his 1967 amazing song, "What a Wonderful World," Louis Armstrong (1901-1971) sang, "… I hear babies crying, I watch them grow. They will learn much more than I will never know ..."
The legendary African-American jazz and blues singer-trumpeter was describing the bright future half a century ago as he saw babies crying and friends shaking hands and really saying "I love you" in his "wonderful world."
But we are living today in a different world, not in such a wonderful world of Armstrong. No matter how noisy or loud babies crying are, I do wish to hear them cry in my neighborhood and elsewhere.
I am looking forward to the "fundamental ways" to help raise the birthrate which the presidential committee promised to unveil in October, that should include various privileges to newlywed couples and those who give birth to two or more children such as tax reductions, support for school expenses and house rent and establishment of free state-run nursing facilities.
Park Moo-jong (emjei29@gmail.com) is a standing adviser of The Korea Times. He served as the president-publisher of the nation's first English daily newspaper from 2004 to 2014 after working as a reporter since 1974.
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