By Andrew Hammond
U.K. Conservative MPs last week selected their final two candidates to replace Boris Johnson as prime minister in a contest that increasingly has an "Alice in Wonderland" fantasy quality to it.
That is, Foreign Secretary Truss (a "Remainer" in the 2016 Brexit referendum) has since then moved to the Conservative right wing and is seen as the continuity candidate for Johnson by his supporters. Meanwhile, ex-Finance Minister Rishi Sunak (a long-time Brexiteer who was formerly Johnson's closest ally) is now being criticized by some Conservatives, especially friends of Johnson, as being too left-wing.
The Conservative leadership contest has two phases. The first, which has now finished, was when the party's MPs decide which two candidates should reach the final stage from an original cast of eleven. In the final round of MP voting, Sunak won 137 votes, Truss 113 and Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt, who has now been eliminated, 105.
Now, the party's membership of less than 200,000 will make the final choice before Sept. 5. The Conservative members, which amount to about 0.3 percent of the UK population, are disproportionately old (44 percent are over 65), white (97 percent), and geographically skewed toward London and Southern England (54 percent), so are not very representative of the wider U.K. population.
Unlike in 2019, when Mr. Johnson was the clear favorite to win the Conservative leadership from start to finish, there is still no overwhelmingly strong frontrunner in 2022. While Mr. Sunak has won the most support from Conservative MPs, polls indicate that he could get beaten by Mrs. Truss now that the wider party membership gets to vote, and the result is too close to call.
At this early stage, Truss is the favorite, but Sunak could still win out in the coming weeks if he outshines her in the upcoming leadership debates (called "hustings") around the country. Leadership hustings between Sunak and Truss are now being held around the country starting soon with the winner announced on Sept. 5 after a postal ballot, completed by party members.
Sunak and Truss will now try to secure an endorsement from Mordaunt who was knocked out last week, which could be influential with party members. Mordaunt is likely to receive a significant Cabinet role in the next Government.
So far, the leadership contest has hurt the national image of the Conservatives with significant intra-party infighting. The opposition Labour Party will also be relieved that an "outsider" candidate like Mordaunt has not been selected as they would have had the most chance of "shaking up" the political landscape in a way that Truss and Sunak may not be able to as established, senior Cabinet ministers for the last few years.
Labour has also been adding up the cost of the policy pledges of the Conservative candidates and claimed these amount to ￡330 billion of unfunded spending commitments. This cost includes the estimate of the ￡38 billion of tax cuts Truss has promised to introduce if she wins power, including reversing next April's increase in corporation tax costs at ￡14.5 billion.
It is too early to assess the full policy implications of the leadership contest, which won't become clearer till at least next month. One of these is tax cuts, however, with Sunak favoring fiscal prudence, while Truss has said she wants early, significant personal tax cuts too, including scrapping April's rise in National Insurance, introduced by the government whilst he was still at the Treasury.
Sunak has rubbished these proposals, saying tax rises are needed to repair the public finances after the pandemic and accusing Truss of peddling "something-for-nothing economics." He has said he wants to lower the tax burden, but this should only be done when inflation, currently running at its highest level for 40 years, has been brought under control.
Ultimately, party members will take a long hard look at both candidates and decide who is best placed to beat Labour in the next election. Truss lacks charisma and is widely seen as robotic, like Theresa May.
Meanwhile, Sunak recently received (like Johnson) a police fine over the Downing Street "partygate" issue so he also is tarnished in the eyes of some voters. He has also recently been criticized over the tax affairs of his wife, Akshata Murty, whom he met while studying at Stanford University, who is the daughter of Indian billionaire N.R. Narayana Murthy.
Neither Truss nor Sunak is likely to have the electoral success that Johnson enjoyed in 2019. So the Conservatives have a very tough choice to the make in coming weeks as the person selected will almost certainly lead the party into the next general election in 2023 or 2024.
Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
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That is, Foreign Secretary Truss (a "Remainer" in the 2016 Brexit referendum) has since then moved to the Conservative right wing and is seen as the continuity candidate for Johnson by his supporters. Meanwhile, ex-Finance Minister Rishi Sunak (a long-time Brexiteer who was formerly Johnson's closest ally) is now being criticized by some Conservatives, especially friends of Johnson, as being too left-wing.
The Conservative leadership contest has two phases. The first, which has now finished, was when the party's MPs decide which two candidates should reach the final stage from an original cast of eleven. In the final round of MP voting, Sunak won 137 votes, Truss 113 and Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt, who has now been eliminated, 105.
Now, the party's membership of less than 200,000 will make the final choice before Sept. 5. The Conservative members, which amount to about 0.3 percent of the UK population, are disproportionately old (44 percent are over 65), white (97 percent), and geographically skewed toward London and Southern England (54 percent), so are not very representative of the wider U.K. population.
Unlike in 2019, when Mr. Johnson was the clear favorite to win the Conservative leadership from start to finish, there is still no overwhelmingly strong frontrunner in 2022. While Mr. Sunak has won the most support from Conservative MPs, polls indicate that he could get beaten by Mrs. Truss now that the wider party membership gets to vote, and the result is too close to call.
At this early stage, Truss is the favorite, but Sunak could still win out in the coming weeks if he outshines her in the upcoming leadership debates (called "hustings") around the country. Leadership hustings between Sunak and Truss are now being held around the country starting soon with the winner announced on Sept. 5 after a postal ballot, completed by party members.
Sunak and Truss will now try to secure an endorsement from Mordaunt who was knocked out last week, which could be influential with party members. Mordaunt is likely to receive a significant Cabinet role in the next Government.
So far, the leadership contest has hurt the national image of the Conservatives with significant intra-party infighting. The opposition Labour Party will also be relieved that an "outsider" candidate like Mordaunt has not been selected as they would have had the most chance of "shaking up" the political landscape in a way that Truss and Sunak may not be able to as established, senior Cabinet ministers for the last few years.
Labour has also been adding up the cost of the policy pledges of the Conservative candidates and claimed these amount to ￡330 billion of unfunded spending commitments. This cost includes the estimate of the ￡38 billion of tax cuts Truss has promised to introduce if she wins power, including reversing next April's increase in corporation tax costs at ￡14.5 billion.
It is too early to assess the full policy implications of the leadership contest, which won't become clearer till at least next month. One of these is tax cuts, however, with Sunak favoring fiscal prudence, while Truss has said she wants early, significant personal tax cuts too, including scrapping April's rise in National Insurance, introduced by the government whilst he was still at the Treasury.
Sunak has rubbished these proposals, saying tax rises are needed to repair the public finances after the pandemic and accusing Truss of peddling "something-for-nothing economics." He has said he wants to lower the tax burden, but this should only be done when inflation, currently running at its highest level for 40 years, has been brought under control.
Ultimately, party members will take a long hard look at both candidates and decide who is best placed to beat Labour in the next election. Truss lacks charisma and is widely seen as robotic, like Theresa May.
Meanwhile, Sunak recently received (like Johnson) a police fine over the Downing Street "partygate" issue so he also is tarnished in the eyes of some voters. He has also recently been criticized over the tax affairs of his wife, Akshata Murty, whom he met while studying at Stanford University, who is the daughter of Indian billionaire N.R. Narayana Murthy.
Neither Truss nor Sunak is likely to have the electoral success that Johnson enjoyed in 2019. So the Conservatives have a very tough choice to the make in coming weeks as the person selected will almost certainly lead the party into the next general election in 2023 or 2024.
Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
