By John J. Metzler
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But as the conflict churns on, few people have noticed the mixed signals that formerly blockaded port cities have cautiously reopened averting a famine but conversely that fighting dangerously near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant could, through pure stupidity, create a horrific nuclear accident.
Back in 1986 the Soviets' mega-screwup at the Chernobyl power plant in Ukraine created a regional humanitarian disaster which through incompetence and cynical cover-up massively spilled radiation, which still lurks in the forests of Ukraine and Belarus.
Today we are tiptoeing around a wider tragedy with active Russian military forces based at the Zaporizhzhia plant, Europe's largest nuclear facility, where fighting continues.
Following up on a successful diplomatic deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey to reopen blocked Ukrainian ports such as Odesa, so that needed fertilizers, grain and wheat can be shipped outside to world markets, mostly in the developing world, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres returned to Ukraine to pursue a double-edged diplomatic strategy.
First, convince the Russians not to use the nuclear plant as a military base. Equally get international IAEA inspectors into the complex to monitor what's really going on.
Speaking in Lviv with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the U.N. chief stated clearly, "I remain gravely concerned about the unfolding situation in and around Europe's largest nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia … Common sense must prevail to avoid any actions that might endanger the physical integrity, safety or security of the nuclear plant."
Guterres added bluntly, "We must tell it like it is, any potential damage to Zaporizhzhia is suicide." He added, "The area needs to be demilitarized." Concerted behind-the-scenes diplomacy by the U.N. chief now may have led to a compromise by Moscow.
French President Emmanuel Macron appeared to gain a surprising win when Vladimir Putin said he would allow the IAEA nuclear inspectors at Zaporizhzhia. But before we cheer too loudly, recall the stillborn fate of IAEA monitors in Saddam's Iraq 20 years ago and the constant cat-and-mouse games regularly played to deceive them.
As significant as the U.N.-Turkish deal, the Black Sea Grain initiative, reached recently to reopen Ukrainian ports and allow food shipments to the world, seems to be bearing fruit.
Guterres proudly stated, "In less than one month, 21 ships have departed from Ukrainian ports and 15 vessels have left Istanbul for Ukraine to load up with grain and other food supplies."
More than 689,000 tons of grain and other food produced by Ukrainian farmers are making their way to world markets. In Istanbul, Turkey, the U.N. chief witnessed efforts that the U.N. World Food Programme (WFP) vessel Brave Commander is carrying grain and foodstuffs to people suffering from drought in the Horn of Africa.
Significantly wheat prices dropped by almost 8 percent following the signing of the U.N. agreements. At the same time, Russia's economy is stagnating due to sanctions and the high cost of the Ukraine war. Russia's Central Bank predicts the GDP shrinking by 4 to 6 percent this year.
Foreign firms have already cut or curtailed operations. Half of Moscow's foreign exchange reserves remain frozen. Even Russia's bloated energy revenues face shortfalls either from Western sanctions or ironically Putin's spiteful and punishing natural gas cutbacks to European countries such as Germany where an 80 percent energy cut is planned.
So the fighting slogs on into September. The war's summer stalemate combined with Russia's economic downturn caused by Western sanctions have likely crippled Putin's ability to score an outright military victory in Ukraine.
Whether the Ukrainians now have the military momentum to counterattack and seriously erode earlier Russian gains remains problematic too.
While the Balkan wars in the 1990s following the breakup of former Yugoslavia produced mass carnage, refugee flows and battles not seen in Europe since World War II, we tend to forget the current Ukraine war has reached a far higher intensity and danger of regional conflict not experienced at a level since WWII.
Europe remains mired in a deep political funk this summer. Still this is 2022 not 1942.
So can there be U.N.-sponsored ceasefires to stop the carnage and just maybe outline the path to future peace talks? Aug. 24 marked the 31st anniversary of Ukraine's renewed independence from Russia. Now, six months into the war, will overdue political maneuvering replace the lethal military maneuvering tearing Ukraine asunder?
John J. Metzler (jjmcolumn@earthlink.net) is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of "Divided Dynamism ― The Diplomacy of Separated Nations: Germany, Korea, China."
