By Daniel Shin
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Life is too short. Hence, we should not brag about it. The queen's funeral teaches us important lessons about death. Death is fair to all. Death cannot be cheated. We send our best regards to those who lost their dear ones this year.
Miu Kakiya is a prolific Japanese novelist, who wrote a book called, "The 70-year-old Death Bill, Approval." In her own imagination, Kakiya created the context where ordinary families live under a legal bill that enforces mandatory death at the age of 70, as the government wants to solve many societal issues around the aging population. Kakiya talks about life and society with her ingenious imagination, sharp gaze and pleasant sense of humor.
Her work has been widely praised for broadening understanding of real-world problems. The entire plot of her book is quite crazy, though. We can't imagine a world in which the government determines the moment of our death. Fiction is fiction. However, Kakiya subtly touches on social issues that Japan is already facing at the moment. It will be burdensome to take care of a very aged population.
Chie Hayakawa, a Japanese film director, raised a similar issue in her short film, "Plan 75," as part of the omnibus feature film called "Ten Years Japan." Set in the near future where an increasing elderly population has become detrimental to society, Hayakawa also imagines a nation where retired seniors or other citizens deemed "unproductive" are systematically eliminated.
In Hayakawa's dystopian short film, the government's "Plan 75" encourages senior citizens to be euthanized to fix the problems of aged society. It can be interpreted as political commentary with her own view, but that is what Japan may face in the coming decades if the Japanese don't plan for the worst. Certainly, it shouldn't be done that way, but what if the value of human beings is measured by the bottom line of society when there is slow economic growth and a shortage of young workers and helpers to take care of elderly people.
East Asia is aging faster than any other region. Japan's super-aged society, ranked the oldest country in the world with 29 percent of its population aged 65 or older. By 2035, it will grow to be one-third of the population. There are now more aged adults wearing diapers than babies in Japan.
China has one of the fastest growing aging populations in the world. By 2040, people aged 60 years or older will reach 28 percent of the population. Currently, people aged 60 or older account for more than 267 million of the population. This phenomenon will shrink the workforce and increase public spending, posing risks for public finances and necessary healthcare delivery. As a result, it increases the challenges to sustainable economic growth.
Managing an aging society requires sophisticated policy design addressing issues such as childcare, education, employment practices, healthcare and pensions. That is why effective preparation for an aging society calls for strong leadership that can build social consensus and make challenging political decisions.
Policy change for the elderly requires a paradigm shift primarily in the ways that healthcare and pensions are delivered and also financed. It should be done without burdening the next generation. For example, in the U.S. alone, the nation is spending $250 billion taking care of Alzheimer's patients. That's going to surpass $1 trillion by 2050, which is enough to take down the entire U.S. healthcare system.
Life expectancy has increased significantly over the past 30 years, driven by numerous technological innovations, which is a good thing. But, it has enormously pushed up healthcare costs as a by-product. I am not arguing that we need drastic measures as we saw in the aforementioned fictional scenarios. However, an aging population puts budgetary pressure on society as a whole. The number of workers declines relative to the number of consumers. The ratio of those working to those not working is set to move from 4 to 1, to 4 to 2.5 by 2050. It will create a financial burden on our next generations and put enormous pressure on society as a whole.
The elderly contribute to the economy by providing money for consumption in a variety of ways. However, prolonged life expectancies create huge uncertainty for the elderly. The elderly will abstain from spending if they do not have enough savings or there is no social security to support their living after retirement. They will not freely spend their life savings. The existing pensions won't be enough. One crucial fact is that we all have to live the lives of the elderly, perhaps for far too long.
The elderly may earn money from continuing to work after retirement, but overall productivity will not be as good as they wish. If there is no proper job or reskilling training in this technologically advanced work context, life won't be easy for them. Therefore, policymakers should consider protecting and expanding financial security and assistance programs for the elderly, including public health insurance as well as the universal basic income, tailored to standards of living for the elderly beyond the existing pensions. Financial security is vital to maintaining health and quality of life.
Nothing beats old friends. We can't buy friendship with money. Dignity comes from respect. Dignity is a given. Dignity identifies a worthy, high and honorable condition as part of being human. We should make the elderly feel wanted and valued like all people have the right to be recognized for their inherent humanity and treated equally. People do not need to be a king or queen to be dignified. Simple paid work could strengthen and restore dignity for the elderly. What we need to give them is not money, but meaning, as all want to be remembered through the work we leave behind or through our relationships in life.
Daniel Shin is a venture capitalist and senior luxury fashion executive, overseeing corporate development at MCM, a German luxury brand. He also teaches at Korea University.