President-elect braces for looming security challenges

By Kim Sang-woo

On March 9, Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party was elected as the next president of South Korea in the closest race ever. Yoon beat Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea with a razor-thin margin of 0.73 percent or roughly 247,000 votes.

Nevertheless, as soon as Yoon appeared to be the winner, Lee conceded, and President Moon Jae-in congratulated his victory, making way for a peaceful transfer of power. It was indeed a triumph for Korean democracy when global democratic backsliding was prevalent.

Yoon, a political novice, faces the Herculean task of reuniting a polarized society disillusioned by corruption, sky-high housing prices, income and gender inequalities, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as numerous diplomatic challenges that need to be addressed.

But the fact that nearly half of the electorate voted for his DPK opponent, and that the opposition party will still maintain the majority in the National Assembly, at least until the April 2024 general election, could make it difficult for the president-elect to mobilize the support needed to implement key campaign pledges.

The unconventional president-elect could be the person to correct the vicious cycle of retribution politics, transform decision making processes with greater transparency, and devolve power to the cabinet and other agencies and become the first president of South Korea to break away from the imperial presidency which ended in the tragic demise of previous presidents.

Yoon wants to reduce the president's staff by 30 percent and abolish the senior secretaries, who ran all the ministries. This will be a fundamental change in the right direction.

The President-elect has no prior foreign policy experience, but he will be surrounded by seasoned veterans and experts.

His foreign policy platform emphasizes closer alignment with the United States through a "comprehensive strategic alliance."

Yoon will continue to implement the agenda of the Biden-Moon May 2021 summit with cooperation across multiple sectors.

He will also actively support President Joe Biden's Indo-Pacific Strategy to pivot to a more comprehensive alliance with the U.S. and subsequently join the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. He also supports the Quad, comprising major Asia-Pacific countries, and will seek eventual membership, but first start cooperating in the working groups.

In his Feb. 8 Foreign Affairs article, Yoon said that it was time to expand South Korea's role in the international community by "championing freedom, peace, and liberal democratic values in Asia and beyond."

Yoon has been critical of the conciliatory approach of the Moon government toward North Korea, instead advocating a policy that emphasizes deterrence and "peace through strength."

Yoon and his advisers, therefore, have argued for the reinforcement of U.S. extended deterrence against North Korea through joint military exercises, the updating of military operation plans, and increased deployment of U.S. military assets.

Having said that, Yoon has made it clear that he is open to dialogue and negotiations with North Korea. He would like to open a trilateral communication channel between Seoul, Washington, and Pyongyang.

He promised unconditional humanitarian assistance to the North and vowed to support a peace treaty if Pyongyang takes clear steps to reverse its nuclear program.

The President-elect has been critical of Moon's hedging, "balanced diplomacy" (or strategic ambiguity) approach to Beijing.

In 2017, when the THAAD missile defense system was deployed in South Korea, China retaliated with a barrage of sanctions which cost South Korean companies billions of dollars.

As a result, the Moon administration pledged the so called "Three No's" referring to "no additional THAAD batteries", "no South Korean integration into the U.S. regional missile defense system" and "no trilateral alliance with the US and Japan."

Yoon criticized the Moon administration's Three No's, which, in his view, undermined South Korea's sovereign right to defend itself against the North Korean nuclear threat. National security comes first, Yoon believes, and South Korea should never be bullied to choose between China and the U.S.

Yoon even contemplates additional THAAD interceptors if North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities continue to grow.

Chinese bullying resulted in anti-Chinese opinion among the South Korean people to rise to more than 80 percent. Hence, Yoon will have public support in assuming a more principled approach towards China.

But China is South Korea's most important trading partner, and Yoon is aware of that. He declared to initiate a "new era of mutual respect and cooperation with China" based on a regular high level strategic dialogue.

The president-elect consistently conveyed his desire to improve relations with Japan during the election, which offers an opportunity for Tokyo to reach out to the new president. Yoon said that the second leader he will meet after Biden is Prime Minister Kishida of Japan.

Yoon's views, particularly on North Korea, but also on the Indo-Pacific, are closer to Tokyo's, which allow for deeper functional cooperation.

Yoon may be more willing to downplay historical issues for the sake of improving bilateral as well as U.S.-South Korea-Japan trilateral relations, therefore, less likely to disrupt the relationship for domestic political gain.

His challenge will be getting public support to improve relations with Tokyo, which is still unpopular.

The top priority of the new government, however, will be overcoming political polarization in the country.

Yoon will have to convince the Korean people that he is devoted to national interest rather than to party or personal interests. And successfully work with the National Assembly controlled by the rival DPK.

At the end of the day, South Korean domestic politics will largely determine the success or failure of the Yoon government's policy initiatives, because despite his efforts for change, both external and domestic constraints could prevent Yoon from a radical departure from politics as usual of the past.

The president-elect should be constantly reminded that, "all's well that ends well."

Kim Sang-woo (swkim54@hotmail.com) is a former lawmaker and is currently chairman of the East Asia Cultural Project. He is also a member of the board of directors at the Kim Dae-jung Peace Foundation.