By Yang Moo-jin
The situation on the Korean Peninsula, which has been frozen since the Hanoi summit between the United States and North Korea, is still in a stalemate. North Korea is focusing on self-reliance and internal solidarity while refusing to engage in dialogue with the U.S. and South Korea. However, the conflux of problems, including sanctions against North Korea, natural disasters, COVID-19 and the de facto closure of the border for preventive measures against the pandemic are exacerbating North Korea's economic difficulties.
Under these circumstances, the restoration of the inter-Korean communication lines on July 27 was expected to be an important turning point. At the time of the reopening of the inter-Korean communication lines, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) supported this expectation, calling the reopening "a big step toward restoring trust and promoting reconciliation" with "a positive effect on the improvement and development of inter-Korean relations."
But these hopes did not last long. North Korea denounced the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises in August as "the most intensive expression of its hostile policy toward Korea," and effectively cut off the inter-Korean communication lines again on Aug. 10, after they had previously been restored with great difficulty.
On Aug. 26, the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises ended. It is fortunate that there has been no military response from North Korea, so it is time quickly to revive the atmosphere for the resumption of dialogue and improvement of relations, which was built on the trust between the leaders of the two Koreas.
North Korea is likely to emphasize its importance through provocation if it thinks that the U.S. will return to Obama's policy of "strategic patience" or that North Korea is a low priority for the U.S. Based on this understanding, I would like to make some suggestions as a scholar.
First, I hope that the U.S. makes its policy position clear so as to bring North Korea to the negotiating table. It will be of great help to create an environment for dialogue if the U.S. makes public that not only denuclearization, but also North Korea's concerns ― such as sanctions relief, security guarantees and a peace regime ― will be discussed when the dialogue resumes, and that corresponding measures will be fully considered in the process of phased denuclearization.
From North Korea's point of view, the U.S. is all talk and no action, although North Korea has taken good-faith measures towards denuclearization and building trust, such as halting nuclear and inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) test launches, closing the Punggye-ri nuclear test site and returning the remains of U.S. soldiers.
Pyongyang's disparagement of the Biden administration's proposal, to meet anytime and anywhere without condition, as "hypocrisy to conceal aggressive intention," in the Aug. 10 statement of Kim Yo-jong, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's powerful sister, can be interpreted as a request for Washington to show its will to improve relations through actual actions.
If the U.S. presents concrete outcomes that North Korea can achieve through future negotiations, it can show the sincerity of the Biden administration's North Korea policy principle of resolution through dialogue and diplomacy, and it can be a good cause for North Korea to return to dialogue.
Second, I hope that North Korea comes to the table and engages in serious negotiations. While the Trump administration preferred attempting grand bargains through so-called "big deals," the Biden administration is advocating a phased and pragmatic approach aimed at reducing threats.
As it can be seen that the U.S. and North Korea are in agreement with each other to a considerable degree when it comes to the denuclearization methodology, North Korea needs to show flexibility, breaking away from its rigid position that it will resume dialogue only when the U.S. abandons its hostile policy toward the North.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration has announced a new North Korea policy that is different from the Obama and Trump administrations, but it has not even started dialogue with North Korea.
In addition, there may be political constraints that make it difficult to provide substantive concessions to North Korea before the start of dialogue. I believe that it is more reasonable and pragmatic for North Korea to return to the negotiating table and listen to the Biden administration's North Korea policy, to achieve what it wants while having negotiations.
Third, I hope that North Korea responds to the South Korean government's proposal for cooperation in overcoming the COVID-19 pandemic. South Korea is constantly emphasizing the importance of health and medical cooperation with North Korea, including the prevention of the spread of COVID-19, saying that South and North Korea, connected by sky, land and sea, share a common destiny in the fight against infectious diseases.
In addition, South Korea has announced its plans to discuss the issue of establishing a videoconferencing system between the two Koreas. If North Korea responds, a system that enables inter-Korean dialogue even during the COVID-19 pandemic ― such as videoconferencing and safe face-to-face talks ― can be completed as soon as possible.
The continuation of the current stalemate is in no one's interest. While spending time doubting the intentions of the other party, the security threat posed by North Korea's strengthening of its nuclear capabilities will intensify, and the economic development and improvement of people's livelihoods that North Korea wants will inevitably be constrained. I hope that the U.S. and North Korea make a courageous decision to break away from the accusatory cliche of "you first" and make a wise choice.
Yang Moo-jin (yangmj@kyungnam.ac.kr) is a professor at the University of North Korean Studies and the vice chairman of the Korean Association of North Korean Studies. He is also a standing committee member of the National Unification Advisory Council and a policy consultant at the Ministry of Unification.
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Under these circumstances, the restoration of the inter-Korean communication lines on July 27 was expected to be an important turning point. At the time of the reopening of the inter-Korean communication lines, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) supported this expectation, calling the reopening "a big step toward restoring trust and promoting reconciliation" with "a positive effect on the improvement and development of inter-Korean relations."
But these hopes did not last long. North Korea denounced the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises in August as "the most intensive expression of its hostile policy toward Korea," and effectively cut off the inter-Korean communication lines again on Aug. 10, after they had previously been restored with great difficulty.
On Aug. 26, the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises ended. It is fortunate that there has been no military response from North Korea, so it is time quickly to revive the atmosphere for the resumption of dialogue and improvement of relations, which was built on the trust between the leaders of the two Koreas.
North Korea is likely to emphasize its importance through provocation if it thinks that the U.S. will return to Obama's policy of "strategic patience" or that North Korea is a low priority for the U.S. Based on this understanding, I would like to make some suggestions as a scholar.
First, I hope that the U.S. makes its policy position clear so as to bring North Korea to the negotiating table. It will be of great help to create an environment for dialogue if the U.S. makes public that not only denuclearization, but also North Korea's concerns ― such as sanctions relief, security guarantees and a peace regime ― will be discussed when the dialogue resumes, and that corresponding measures will be fully considered in the process of phased denuclearization.
From North Korea's point of view, the U.S. is all talk and no action, although North Korea has taken good-faith measures towards denuclearization and building trust, such as halting nuclear and inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) test launches, closing the Punggye-ri nuclear test site and returning the remains of U.S. soldiers.
Pyongyang's disparagement of the Biden administration's proposal, to meet anytime and anywhere without condition, as "hypocrisy to conceal aggressive intention," in the Aug. 10 statement of Kim Yo-jong, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's powerful sister, can be interpreted as a request for Washington to show its will to improve relations through actual actions.
If the U.S. presents concrete outcomes that North Korea can achieve through future negotiations, it can show the sincerity of the Biden administration's North Korea policy principle of resolution through dialogue and diplomacy, and it can be a good cause for North Korea to return to dialogue.
Second, I hope that North Korea comes to the table and engages in serious negotiations. While the Trump administration preferred attempting grand bargains through so-called "big deals," the Biden administration is advocating a phased and pragmatic approach aimed at reducing threats.
As it can be seen that the U.S. and North Korea are in agreement with each other to a considerable degree when it comes to the denuclearization methodology, North Korea needs to show flexibility, breaking away from its rigid position that it will resume dialogue only when the U.S. abandons its hostile policy toward the North.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration has announced a new North Korea policy that is different from the Obama and Trump administrations, but it has not even started dialogue with North Korea.
In addition, there may be political constraints that make it difficult to provide substantive concessions to North Korea before the start of dialogue. I believe that it is more reasonable and pragmatic for North Korea to return to the negotiating table and listen to the Biden administration's North Korea policy, to achieve what it wants while having negotiations.
Third, I hope that North Korea responds to the South Korean government's proposal for cooperation in overcoming the COVID-19 pandemic. South Korea is constantly emphasizing the importance of health and medical cooperation with North Korea, including the prevention of the spread of COVID-19, saying that South and North Korea, connected by sky, land and sea, share a common destiny in the fight against infectious diseases.
In addition, South Korea has announced its plans to discuss the issue of establishing a videoconferencing system between the two Koreas. If North Korea responds, a system that enables inter-Korean dialogue even during the COVID-19 pandemic ― such as videoconferencing and safe face-to-face talks ― can be completed as soon as possible.
The continuation of the current stalemate is in no one's interest. While spending time doubting the intentions of the other party, the security threat posed by North Korea's strengthening of its nuclear capabilities will intensify, and the economic development and improvement of people's livelihoods that North Korea wants will inevitably be constrained. I hope that the U.S. and North Korea make a courageous decision to break away from the accusatory cliche of "you first" and make a wise choice.
Yang Moo-jin (yangmj@kyungnam.ac.kr) is a professor at the University of North Korean Studies and the vice chairman of the Korean Association of North Korean Studies. He is also a standing committee member of the National Unification Advisory Council and a policy consultant at the Ministry of Unification.
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