By Yun Byung-se
To many top policymakers around the world, the remainder of this year will be a most hectic time. It is the high season of diplomacy ― both regionally and globally. This year, it will be more so than ever, due to the war in Ukraine, supply chain disruptions and economic security issues, energy and food crises, the pandemic, the U.S.-China competition, the climate crisis and the nuclear threat ― to say the least.
For about three months, starting with the United Nations General Assembly in September, the G-20 leaders' summit, the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting and the East Asia Summit in November and other summits will occur one after the other. Most will be attended by key world leaders, including the United States, China, Russia, South Korea and Japan.
On the margins of these meetings, mini-lateral or plurilateral summits of various formats will be held. Regional blocs will hold their own summits, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit (SCO) in September and the ASEAN summit in November.
What makes these summits and meetings different from previous years is the gravity, urgency and sensitivity of the issues they are dealing with. Many of them tend to be couched in nice diplomatic terms, but have big implications for ongoing geopolitical and geoeconomic conflicts.
Over the last several months, we have already witnessed the opening rounds prior to the main games, such as the NATO and EU summits, the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) foreign ministers' meeting, the 10th Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference, as well as the emergency special session of the United Nations General Assembly ― the 11th since the founding of the United Nations ― on Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The U.S. and likeminded countries came together, while China and Russia stood alone or formed their own coalitions. In the coming weeks, U.S. President Joe Biden will make the most of all available occasions, particularly to highlight the growing threat from the Eurasian landmass, and Chinese and Russian leaders will respond in kind. Out of the "three Cs," competition and confrontation are now prevailing over cooperation.
What we see is a fragmented and divided world, epitomizing the advent of a new cold war or the post-post-Cold War. This kind of atmosphere hampers collaboration even on urgent global agendas, especially on three major crises ― the climate, the pandemic and nuclear ― that require the leadership and examples of the core countries more than ever.
As we saw or experienced throughout this year, climate change has now reached the level of a climate crisis. We do not even need Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports to verify this phenomenon. Unusually hot temperatures, extremely heavy rains and flooding, long droughts, forest fires across the world ― including in Europe, North America, China, Australia, South Asia and the Korean Peninsula ― as well as the rapid melting of Greenland's ice sheets, bear testimony to the reality of our "sick planet Earth."
The COVID-19 pandemic, currently in its third year, shows little sign of coming to an end, as witnessed by the continuing emergence of new variants. It is known as the most severe pandemic in recent history, since the Spanish flu, which lasted 25 months in the early 20th century.
The nuclear threat has entered a new dimension as Russia and North Korea publicly implied their willingness to use their nuclear weapons preemptively against neighboring non-nuclear weapon states, such as Ukraine and South Korea. Now, North Korea has the capability to fire nuclear-tipped missiles anytime anywhere, including Iskander-type tactical missiles which were also deployed in Kaliningrad by Russia, targeting NATO countries.
This is one key reason we cannot ignore or downplay Kim Jong-un's public remarks that the nuclear button is in ready mode on his desk. Whereas the world observed the International Day against Nuclear Tests last week, North Korea is getting ready for its seventh nuclear test.
Last month, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned at the 10th NPT review conference that nuclear conflict, once unthinkable, is back in the realm of possibility. "The war in Ukraine has raised geopolitical tensions to levels not seen since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis," he said. "Today, humanity is just one misunderstanding, one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation."
It is no coincidence that North Korea was among the only five countries which opposed the U.N. General Assembly resolution against Russia's invasion of Ukraine. That resolution was adopted in March by a vote of 141 member countries in favor.
On managing the abovementioned most dangerous threats to the world, William MacAskill, professor of philosophy at Oxford University, wrote in the latest edition of Foreign Affairs magazine that "from climate change to nuclear war, engineered pandemics, uncontrolled artificial intelligence, and other destructive technologies not yet foreseen, a worrying number of risks conspire to threaten 'the end of humanity.' If we act wisely, the coming century will be defined by the recognition of what we owe the future. If we mess up, our grandchildren's grandchildren might never see the light of day."
In a similar vein, the Global Trends 2040 report by the U.S. National Intelligence Council pointed out that technological advances may increase the number of existential threats and that they require the development of resilient strategies to survive.
When global leaders meet in the coming weeks at the United Nations and other fora, they should not confine themselves to their national or bloc interests or even those of the current generation, but map out the survival strategies for our species ― both its current and future generations ― on planet Earth to avoid the fate of Icarus, who ignored the warnings of impending danger.
Whether it is regarding another global pandemic, the accelerating climate crisis, a nuclear or a technology Armageddon, we cannot afford to indulge in any further mistakes or imprudent behavior. As Prof. MacAskill has emphasized, humanity must avoid the fate of Icarus ― but still fly. This is the right time to strategize and act on an agenda for humanity in a more holistic way, going beyond the climate, the pandemic and nuclear diplomacy.
Yun Byung-se, former foreign minister of South Korea, is now a board member of Korea Peace Foundation and is a member of several ex-global leaders' forums and task forces, including the Astana Forum and its Consultative Council as well as the Task Force on U.S. Allies and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation sponsored by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
