Why US midterm elections matter for Korea

By Troy Stangarone

In less than two weeks, Americans will go to the polls for the midterm elections. It would be understandable if most South Koreans only casually follow the results or missed them entirely. The recent stagnation in job growth in South Korea and changing relations with North Korea are of immediate concern.

At the same time, midterms don't see the White House up for grabs, and historically less than half of eligible Americans will vote as well. But this might be one time to watch the results closely.

Midterm elections are traditionally a referendum on the current president and there is little reason to see this midterm as any different. Historically, the president's party has lost seats in a midterm election in the House of Representatives every time since the post-World War II era with just two exceptions: 1998 and 2002 due to anomalies that will not be replicated in 2018.

In recent years, America has become increasingly polarized and rather than working to bridge those divisions in the tradition of prior presidents, President Donald Trump has sought to benefit from those divisions for his own political gain. As a result, Trump has strong approval among his supporters, but has yet to see his approval rating above 50 percent in his presidency.

Off year and by-elections since Trump's election have seen Democrats increasingly motivated and recent polling by the Washington Post suggests that 75 percent of Americans are sure to vote in the midterms. While the percentage of eligible voters who actually vote will undoubtedly be less than that and closer to historical norms, it does suggest that there is strong interest in the current election and that turnout is likely to increase.

This is not a good sign for Republicans and the president. Presidents with approval ratings near 40 percent, as is the case with President Trump, tend to see their party lose a significant number of seats in Congress and polling indicates that Democrats are likely to retake the House.

In another poll by the Washington Post that focuses on the 69 battleground seats, Democrats are preferred by 4 percent. In contrast, in those same districts in 2016, Republicans were favored by 15 percent. FiveThirtyEight, a leading political analysis site, places the odds of Democrats retaking the House at 6 in 7, but in one bright spot for Republicans is that they have a 4 in 5 chance of retaining control of the Senate.

Whether Democrats are able to retake the House or Republicans are able to maintain control, the next Congress will look significantly different than the current one. Due to a high number of retirements, nearly 15 percent of the members will be new regardless of who wins, and if there are a high number of upsets the number of new members will grow.

The turnover in the Senate will likely be smaller, but it will remain fairly evenly divided with no party having more than a slim majority.

Americans won't be focused on the issues that will impact South Korea when they vote, but the results will determine the political capital that President Trump has for the next two years and shape the Congress that will be needed to implement his decisions on trade and North Korea that will impact the Korean Peninsula.

This could especially be true when it comes to North Korea. Despite the political divisions in the United States, North Korea has been one area of bipartisan consensus and Congress has played an important role in shaping U.S. sanctions on North Korea.

Currently pending before the Senate is legislation (S. 2736) that would codify U.S. policy toward negotiations with North Korea with the objective of the complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement of North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Repealing sanctions will be increasingly difficult if the Trump administration doesn't address the concerns of Congress, which extend beyond the dismantlement of North Korea's nuclear program.

Because the Trump administration has expressed a preference to conclude a treaty with North Korea, it would require a super-majority, or 67 votes, in the Senate. If an agreement requires a change in U.S. law or appropriations, similar to the 1994 Agreed Framework, it would also require majority support in the House.

If President Trump is unable achieve a deal that is better than the Iran accord that he withdrew from, Senate approval of a treaty or the approval by both chambers of a more general agreement with North Korea would become increasingly problematic for substantive and political reasons.

President Trump will no longer be able to merely lean on his Republican majority in Congress. Instead, he will have to reach out to Democrats if he wants a lasting success on North Korea. Something which would make President Jimmy Carter's herculean effort to convince the U.S. Senate to pass the Panama Canal treaties in 1978 seems effortless.

While the Trump administration could follow the course of the Obama administration and reach an executive agreement with North Korea instead of a treaty, it would face the same uncertain future as the Iran deal and lack the stability a treaty could bring.

If Democrats regain control of the House, expect vigorous oversight of any Trump administration agreement reached with North Korea, particularly if the deal is perceived to be weaker on North Korean nuclear dismantlement than the Iranian accords.

If the current polling is accurate, the American public is likely to send a strong signal to President Trump that it does not approve of how he has handled his presidency. How he adjusts to that could play an important role in whether the Trump administration will be successful in reaching a lasting agreement with North Korea.

Troy Stangarone (ts@keia.org) is the senior director of congressional affairs and trade at the Korea Economic Institute.