Flawed US weapon sale pitch

By Oh Young-jin

During his recent visit to Korea, U.S. President Donald Trump boasted that U.S. weapons are the world's best and he had Korea ordering them worth billions of dollars.

There are two questions as to his boast: 1) Did he take credit for the deals made by somebody else? 2) Are U.S. weapons the best in the world?

While his predecessor Obama was in power, Korea had ordered 40 Joint Strike Fighters (JSFs) from Lockheed Martin, the biggest U.S. defense contractor, at the cost of $6.43 billion.

Also in Korea's shopping cart are four of Northrop Grumman's Global Hawks, the drone that is capable of worldwide surveillance. The price is set at $1 billion.

The two projects amount to somewhere between $7 and 8 billion but, if they were all there were to explain Trump's boasted billions, Trump would be as good as stealing the credit from Obama.

There should be other deals to make Trump's claim true. They could include JSTARS ― joint surveillance and target attack radar system. Currently, Northrop Grumman's E-8 JSTARS on the platform of Boeing 707. Boeing is to replace it with B737 platform. About $2.5 billion can be allocated for a fleet of four to six. This system received attention as the North is relying more on mobile missile launch systems. It has a U.S. competitor ― Raytheon's ASTOR Hwaker 800 XP based on a smaller business jet platform.

P-8 Poseidon anti-submarine aircraft is made by Boeing. About 4 trillion won is allocated for a fleet of four. Boeing's 737 is the platform. It is to replace the aging P3C Orion fleet but get a higher priority after the North demonstrated its ambition to develop submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). Its European competitor is Swordfish of Sweden's Saab with a smaller platform.

No movement has been made on both JSTARS and Poseidon projects, when asked how the Trump visit has been affecting their bids.

Then, a nuclear-powered submarine project, part of President Moon Jae-in's campaign pledges and former Chief of Naval Operations and Defense Minister Song Young-moo's dream project. Cheong Wa Dae confirmed the project is one among those agreed by Moon and Trump.

The U.S. has never sold its nuclear submarine so it is plausible to help Korea build or allow it to buy from Britain or France. Even if Korea can leapfrog much of the development stage with U.S. help or training support from a European seller, any accident involving such a sub can lead to a nuclear accident. The accident could be a disaster, if it happens in the rather small body of water in the East Sea or West Sea. Reactions from China and Japan are a moot point. Plus, how to deal with radioactive waste from high to low level is a great challenge.

They represent a potential jackpot of billions of dollars for U.S. defense contractors. But those projects have been in the list of acquisition for years perhaps except for the nuclear submarine project. "Korea is slow," an industry source said.

In other words, it remains to be seen whether Trump's visit will make any difference and his touted billions will be translated into reality.

There are legal problems, as well.

President Moon has mentioned Korea's willingness to buy more U.S. weapons. Korea has traditionally purchased U.S. weapon systems for most of its military needs because of interoperability and the security ties. But it is not clear whether the President has the authority to forgo the due process ― invitation of bidders and evaluation of products ― and unilaterally decide which weapons to buy.

He would run the risk of creating a scandal over weapon purchases. Uprooting defense procurement corruption was one of Moon's top campaign pledges.

Related to the second question, it is pretty clear that Korea has not always gotten the best deals from the U.S. For instance, Korea will get 40 F35s from Lockheed Martin but it won't contractually repair them, while Japan has a lot better deal to manufacture and repair their JSFs. ROK Air Force will have to send its JSFs to Japan for general repairs and to Australia for engines.

Then, Korea's F35s are for air superiority, sacrificing weapons carrying ability for stealthy functions. That was why Boeing's F15 Silent Eagle, despite its being nonexistent model, was almost selected over F35 for its better bomb carrying ability.

There was a rumor that Lockheed enlisted the help of Choi Soon-sil, Park Geun-hye's friend who is suspected of wielding presidential authority.

Boeing's 737 platforms for JSTARS and Poseidon are too bulky for missions in Korea, critics argue.

As in case with F35s, the U.S. doesn't allow Korea to conduct its own maintenance on 59 F15s. A Boeing's sale guarantee of 85 percent operation ratio or performance-based logistics (PBL) means that 10 are constantly out of action.

Four additional E737 Peace Eye airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) systems, also on the Boeing platform, can be considered for Korea's purchase but were sold to Korea with limited surveillance on movements on the ground. If they properly functioned, the need for JSTARS could be made proportionally unnecessary.

To both questions, the right answer is "depends."

If the new deals are consummated, Trump could be exonerated from credit stealing.

If U.S. treats Korea as a closer ally and give it similar privileges to those to Japan or Australia, Korea could get the best weapons not only in name but in practice as well. That also makes good on Trump's claim on the quality of American weapons.

Oh Young-jin (foolsdie5@ktimes.com and foolsdie@gmail.com) is The Korea Times' chief editorial writer.