By Imran Khalid
Shinzo Abe is proving to be one of the most atypical prime ministers of Japan in recent history. Not just one, but there is a long list of attributes that make Abe stand out among the big club of Japanese premiers.
Since 1885 when Ito Hirobumi took charge as the first prime minister, 63 people (including those who have served more than one time) have worked as prime minister of Japan until today. It means the average tenure of a Japanese premier is almost two years or so.
Apart from the almost perpetually fractionated Diet, which always remains divided into small splinter and pressure groups, two other factors have been responsible for this 133 year-old musical chair being played among Japanese politicians with regard to the office of prime minister.
One strong and well-entrenched tradition of Japanese corporate culture, which entails the CEO of a company quit their job in case a scandal erupts that directly or indirectly affects the future of the organization, has also drastically influenced the Japanese political system where the prime ministers are expected to leave the office even if a minor scandal is associated with his government.
Another major tradition of the Japanese political system is related to the decline in public approval ratings below the magical number of 30 percent ― the Japanese prime minister is traditionally expected to tender his resignation if there is a drop in his public approval ratings below 30 percent. These two major factors have practically produced so many frequent premature departures of the Japanese prime ministers.
But it seems that Abe, despite being a strong advocate of preservation of traditional values in all spheres of Japanese political and social culture, is now seriously trying to break the tradition of "political self-sacrifice" in the Japanese political system. Two long-running scandals have been hovering around him, but he is not showing any intention to leave the seat.
Instead, he has become more active in the international arena to establish his credentials and stature as a world leader ― his forthcoming long tours of Europe and the Middle East are a clear indication that he is not relenting to the mounting pressure from his detractors at home. The two scandals, both involving schools, are related to his alleged nepotism and favoritism.
The first case revolves around allegations that Abe improperly wielded his influence to help a close friend bypass bureaucratic red tape to facilitate him in getting regulatory approval to establish the veterinary medicine department at his university, KakeGakuen, in southern Japan.
A number of witnesses and proofs show that the office of Prime Minister Abe was used to get the regulatory approval on the fast track, violating the established protocols and SOPs, by creating the "shortest possible schedule" to open the veterinary department at the university.
The second scandal is also related to an educational institution, Moritomo Gakuen, an exceedingly traditional kindergarten that is quite popular among conservative politicians. One of the compulsory rules is that every morning the students must recite the 1890 Imperial Rescript on Education that exalts the virtues of the empire, one of the shibboleths of Japan's far right.
It is alleged that in 2016, the owner was allotted a piece of land in Osaka, western Japan, from the national government at around 14 percent of the market value in order to set up an elementary school. After the public outcry over this issue, the Finance Ministry, which was responsible for the deal, first tried to justify the low price due to toxic waste at the site, then the finance ministry officials claimed that transaction and documentation of the deal had not been kept properly.
However, documents were found later and presented to the parliament where it was discovered that the documents had been tampered with to remove the name of Abe's wife, who was once named the honorary principal of the school. Further allegations have surfaced, though not proven yet, that the new school was given a donation of 1 million yen by Akia Abe.
Interestingly, despite such haunting scandals, the approval rating of Abe and his cabinet stood at 44.9 percent in June, up 6 percentage points from the previous month to surpass the disapproval rating for the first time since early March, the latest Kyodo News poll showed last month. The rate is better than 38.9 percent in May and 37 percent in April, when public support for the Cabinet hit the second-lowest level in Kyodo polls since Abe returned to power in 2012.
The disapproval rating declined to 43.2 percent from 50.3 percent in May and 52.6 percent in April. The last time the approval rate for the Cabinet eclipsed the disapproval rate was in early March, when they stood at 48.1 percent versus 39.0 percent. Perhaps this kind of approval rating is the kind of reassurance that has emboldened Abe to remain unmoved by such scandals which are generally considered to be a big ticket to go home in Japanese politics.
Unlike his recent predecessors, who were most of the time compromise figures without even the clout to rein in their own party, Abe also has much stronger control over different factions of his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) party within as well as outside the Diet.
There is no denying that most of Abe's predecessors since 1990, with the exception of Junichiro Koizumi who had a relatively long run from 2001 to 2006, failed to make their presence felt in the domain of international politics because of their very short stints which did not allow them enough time to develop a relationship with other global leaders.
Abe, in contrast, is a different kind of power broker, and he is using his long stay at the helm to increase his visibility in the global political fabric. The close associates of Abe have repeatedly made it clear through their direct and indirect gestures that Abe is here for a long game this time.
Nepotism, influence-peddling and document-forging are perhaps very sensitive allegations by the standards of Japanese politics, but Abe seems to be little compelled to throw in the towel over these matters. His approval rating is still at a reasonably acceptable level and this is more than enough to him to think that Japanese voters are adjusting themselves to the realities of politics.
Plus the positive impact of Abenomics policies is quite visible in different economic indicators e.g., 11.8 percent GDP growth, which had been stagnant for the last two decades, dropping of the unemployment rate to 2.4 percent and incremental growth of the workforce to 5 percent. In the last five years, Abe has been able to make Japan a leader of global free trade ― a surprise move from the prime minister of a country that has always been notorious for its barriers to imports.
Apart from assuming the leadership of the Asian Trans-Pacific Partnership, Abe has also spearheaded the free trade agreement with the European Union, perhaps the largest such bilateral trade agreement in history that amounts to almost 30 percent of global GDP. The string of successes in domestic and international affairs has heartened Abe to ignore the mounting pressure of scandals.
He has been successful enough to not only control the power brokers within his fractionated LDP but also influence public opinion. Abe is planning to visit Europe and the Middle East this month on a weeklong tour that will include a signing ceremony for a free trade deal between Japan and the European Union.
He will also visit Saudi Arabia ― clearly showing that he is very confident about his strong political base at home and now he is venturing outside the boundaries of the Asia-Pacific region to claim a share in global leadership. But a lot still depends upon the simmering scandals that have the potential to sabotage his personal ambitions to become the longest serving prime minister of Japan.
Imran Khalid (ikhalid99@yahoo.com) is a freelance contributor based in Karachi, Pakistan. He has been contributing articles on international relations to various newspapers and journals in the region since 1995.
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Since 1885 when Ito Hirobumi took charge as the first prime minister, 63 people (including those who have served more than one time) have worked as prime minister of Japan until today. It means the average tenure of a Japanese premier is almost two years or so.
Apart from the almost perpetually fractionated Diet, which always remains divided into small splinter and pressure groups, two other factors have been responsible for this 133 year-old musical chair being played among Japanese politicians with regard to the office of prime minister.
One strong and well-entrenched tradition of Japanese corporate culture, which entails the CEO of a company quit their job in case a scandal erupts that directly or indirectly affects the future of the organization, has also drastically influenced the Japanese political system where the prime ministers are expected to leave the office even if a minor scandal is associated with his government.
Another major tradition of the Japanese political system is related to the decline in public approval ratings below the magical number of 30 percent ― the Japanese prime minister is traditionally expected to tender his resignation if there is a drop in his public approval ratings below 30 percent. These two major factors have practically produced so many frequent premature departures of the Japanese prime ministers.
But it seems that Abe, despite being a strong advocate of preservation of traditional values in all spheres of Japanese political and social culture, is now seriously trying to break the tradition of "political self-sacrifice" in the Japanese political system. Two long-running scandals have been hovering around him, but he is not showing any intention to leave the seat.
Instead, he has become more active in the international arena to establish his credentials and stature as a world leader ― his forthcoming long tours of Europe and the Middle East are a clear indication that he is not relenting to the mounting pressure from his detractors at home. The two scandals, both involving schools, are related to his alleged nepotism and favoritism.
The first case revolves around allegations that Abe improperly wielded his influence to help a close friend bypass bureaucratic red tape to facilitate him in getting regulatory approval to establish the veterinary medicine department at his university, KakeGakuen, in southern Japan.
A number of witnesses and proofs show that the office of Prime Minister Abe was used to get the regulatory approval on the fast track, violating the established protocols and SOPs, by creating the "shortest possible schedule" to open the veterinary department at the university.
The second scandal is also related to an educational institution, Moritomo Gakuen, an exceedingly traditional kindergarten that is quite popular among conservative politicians. One of the compulsory rules is that every morning the students must recite the 1890 Imperial Rescript on Education that exalts the virtues of the empire, one of the shibboleths of Japan's far right.
It is alleged that in 2016, the owner was allotted a piece of land in Osaka, western Japan, from the national government at around 14 percent of the market value in order to set up an elementary school. After the public outcry over this issue, the Finance Ministry, which was responsible for the deal, first tried to justify the low price due to toxic waste at the site, then the finance ministry officials claimed that transaction and documentation of the deal had not been kept properly.
However, documents were found later and presented to the parliament where it was discovered that the documents had been tampered with to remove the name of Abe's wife, who was once named the honorary principal of the school. Further allegations have surfaced, though not proven yet, that the new school was given a donation of 1 million yen by Akia Abe.
Interestingly, despite such haunting scandals, the approval rating of Abe and his cabinet stood at 44.9 percent in June, up 6 percentage points from the previous month to surpass the disapproval rating for the first time since early March, the latest Kyodo News poll showed last month. The rate is better than 38.9 percent in May and 37 percent in April, when public support for the Cabinet hit the second-lowest level in Kyodo polls since Abe returned to power in 2012.
The disapproval rating declined to 43.2 percent from 50.3 percent in May and 52.6 percent in April. The last time the approval rate for the Cabinet eclipsed the disapproval rate was in early March, when they stood at 48.1 percent versus 39.0 percent. Perhaps this kind of approval rating is the kind of reassurance that has emboldened Abe to remain unmoved by such scandals which are generally considered to be a big ticket to go home in Japanese politics.
Unlike his recent predecessors, who were most of the time compromise figures without even the clout to rein in their own party, Abe also has much stronger control over different factions of his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) party within as well as outside the Diet.
There is no denying that most of Abe's predecessors since 1990, with the exception of Junichiro Koizumi who had a relatively long run from 2001 to 2006, failed to make their presence felt in the domain of international politics because of their very short stints which did not allow them enough time to develop a relationship with other global leaders.
Abe, in contrast, is a different kind of power broker, and he is using his long stay at the helm to increase his visibility in the global political fabric. The close associates of Abe have repeatedly made it clear through their direct and indirect gestures that Abe is here for a long game this time.
Nepotism, influence-peddling and document-forging are perhaps very sensitive allegations by the standards of Japanese politics, but Abe seems to be little compelled to throw in the towel over these matters. His approval rating is still at a reasonably acceptable level and this is more than enough to him to think that Japanese voters are adjusting themselves to the realities of politics.
Plus the positive impact of Abenomics policies is quite visible in different economic indicators e.g., 11.8 percent GDP growth, which had been stagnant for the last two decades, dropping of the unemployment rate to 2.4 percent and incremental growth of the workforce to 5 percent. In the last five years, Abe has been able to make Japan a leader of global free trade ― a surprise move from the prime minister of a country that has always been notorious for its barriers to imports.
Apart from assuming the leadership of the Asian Trans-Pacific Partnership, Abe has also spearheaded the free trade agreement with the European Union, perhaps the largest such bilateral trade agreement in history that amounts to almost 30 percent of global GDP. The string of successes in domestic and international affairs has heartened Abe to ignore the mounting pressure of scandals.
He has been successful enough to not only control the power brokers within his fractionated LDP but also influence public opinion. Abe is planning to visit Europe and the Middle East this month on a weeklong tour that will include a signing ceremony for a free trade deal between Japan and the European Union.
He will also visit Saudi Arabia ― clearly showing that he is very confident about his strong political base at home and now he is venturing outside the boundaries of the Asia-Pacific region to claim a share in global leadership. But a lot still depends upon the simmering scandals that have the potential to sabotage his personal ambitions to become the longest serving prime minister of Japan.
Imran Khalid (ikhalid99@yahoo.com) is a freelance contributor based in Karachi, Pakistan. He has been contributing articles on international relations to various newspapers and journals in the region since 1995.
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