A seesaw game and South Korea

By Sandip Kumar Mishra

The summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un on June 12 in Singapore has become a game of seesaw. Experts have been trying to make sense of happenings between North Korea and the U.S. as the whole sequence of events has been quite dramatic.

The U.S. and North Korea showed senses of positivity till the first week of May, but soon the reference of the "Libya model" and Operation Max Thunder along with disagreements about the details about the "denuclearization" got it almost derailed.

Actions and reactions from both North Korea and the U.S. in the last few weeks have led North Korea's Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui to call U.S. Vice President Mike Pence "ignorant and stupid" and the U.S. President Trump announced May 24 that the summit in Singapore could not be held in this situation.

It was an important move by the South Korean President Moon Jae-in to hurriedly have a second summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at Panmunjeom on May 26 to get the process back on track. The meeting was held at the request of Kim and after the meeting, the Trump-Kim meeting is said to be held in Singapore as scheduled.

A negative turn of events has been rescued but one cannot be sure about the summit till it actually happens. Moreover, there is still a lot of ground to be covered before any realistic move toward North Korea's denuclearization can happen.

There are two trends which are quite visible in the recent episode of setback and recovery.

One, the U.S. appears quite sure that its policy of "maximum pressure" on North Korea has led Pyongyang to change its behavior and come to negotiating table.

Two, South Korea appears determined to go ahead with its attempt to connect with North Korea regardless of the U.S. responses and actions. These two trends are basically connected and the Trump administration must mend its ways to comprehend them and revise its approach to remain constructive in the process.

In reference to the success of the U.S. policy of "maximum pressure" it is being claimed that North Korea has been facing unprecedented isolation because of sanctions put on it. These sanctions include severe restrictions on North Korea's crude oil, garment industry and foreign remittances.

Furthermore, through the threat of secondary boycotts and an embargo on private ships, North Korea has come to its knees and has no choice but to talk to the U.S. For the same reason, Trump has not conceded even an inch during the whole process and rather has hardened his position.

His letter to Kim on May 24 about not having a meeting in Singapore also emanated from the same premise that North Korea is in dire need to talk because of "maximum pressure" and he could play tough.

However, Trump must be aware that, one, isolation and sanctions in the case of North Korea would not make much difference as the North Korean regime is already quite isolated.

North Korea's formal exchange with the world excluding China is less than $2 billion and even though the U.S. is successful in stopping all of them, it's not going to make much difference.

Two, even though China appears to be implementing sanctions on North Korea, formal and informal exchanges between Pyongyang and Beijing would continue as China has its own reasons to support North Korea's survival.

Three, even though a super-tough sanction regime is put in place, it would not have much impact on the ruling elites of North Korea.

For the above reasons, so many predictions about North Korea's doom in the past four decades have proved to be wrong and the Trump administration may make a similar mistake if it does not show flexibility and statesmanship.

It's true that North Korea has taken a clever move from the very beginning of 2018 and is trying to reach out to South Korea and China without being committal to its denuclearization.

But the opportunity must be used by the Trump administration as it has been done by the Moon administration to create channels of communication and exchanges. Because, if the U.S. is unable to show enough deftness, there is a real possibility that South Korea may independently take measures to engage North Korea, a glimpse of which could be seen in the second summit between Moon and Kim.

Actually for many months after assuming power in May 2017, Moon Jae-in struggled to create a space for South Korea in contests between the U.S. and North Korea. He got hold of it when North Korea agreed to participate in the PyeongChang Winter Olympics.

South Korea till now has played a key role through its engagement with North Korea to bring things back on track and has been polite in giving credit to the U.S. policy. However, if the U.S. maintains that "maximum pressure" is a successful policy and North Korea has no choice but to give up its nuclear arsenal because of it, South Korea could not just watch the whole process getting derailed.

Moon Jae-in has shown that he is not going to give up South Korea's position as the prime mover and even appears ready to take a different approach toward North Korea. Overall, the coming days are going to be more dramatic as North Korea, the U.S. and South Korea are going to seek their space and interests amid dealing with one another.

The author is associate professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India and a distinguished visiting fellow at the Sejong Institute, South Korea. He could be reached at sandipmishra10@gmail.com.