By Heo Mane
There are high expectations about the upcoming inter-Korean summit and another summit between Pyongyang and Washington. However, the summits may take a new turn and become more complicated after Kim Jong-un made a surprise visit to China to meet President Xi Jinping in a blitzkrieg manner late last month.
Beijing might have felt sidelined in the summitry toward denuclearization by Seoul, Pyongyang and Washington. Beijing seems to have closely watched the developments surrounding the Korean Peninsula since the South and the U.S. each agreed to hold a bilateral summit with North Korea, this month and next month respectively.
The government welcomed the Xi-Kim meeting as it is expected to improve strained Beijing-Pyongyang ties, which will subsequently have a positive effect on the North's denuclearization.
However, Kim may try to use the to-be-restored blood ties with China as leverage to boost his bargaining power at the summits with Moon and U.S. President Donald Trump. The Xi-Kim summit could also allow Beijing to play a bigger role in the denuclearization talks.
In this regard, there are some concerns that Kim may make efforts to weaken President Moon's role of taking the driver's seat in navigating toward the denuclearization of the North.
What effects will Kim's sudden visit to Beijing have on international efforts to make the North give up its nuclear program? How will it affect the upcoming summits?
Kim's diplomatic offensive might face serious challenges because the roadmap for denuclearization Seoul and Washington advocate is different from Pyongyang's.
Seoul's strategy appears to strike a comprehensive package deal with Pyongyang, while favoring step-by-step implementation of the deal. It is somewhat different from Washington's immediate and complete denuclearization of the North, which is similar to the Libyan-style denuclearization formula.
On the other hand, Kim Jong-un proposed a phased and simultaneous formula during his meeting with Xi. He apparently wants to take a step-by-step approach. It seems that Kim would like to demand rewards for each and every step it may take to scrap his nuclear arsenal. His formula could resemble salami tactics aimed at eliciting as many concessions from the U.S. and South Korea.
Trump, however, has called for a "complete, verifiable and irreversible" denuclearization. He has made it clear that no reward is available until the North completes its denuclearization process. He has also repeatedly said that he will not repeat mistakes committed by the previous U.S. administrations over the past 25 years.
The Beijing-Pyongyang summit is likely to help Kim be better positioned for denuclearization talks with Seoul and Washington. Kim and Xi reaffirmed that China and North Korea have maintained the blood alliance which goes well beyond a mere military alliance. They implied that the two countries want to restore the old-time friendship under which China and North Korea were as close as lips and teeth.
Seoul and Washington are now faced with another player, China. Seoul and Washington has sought to tackle Pyongyang's nuclear and missile development programs via the trilateral diplomacy involving the two Koreas and the U.S. South Korea has also floated the idea of holding a trilateral summit between Moon, Kim and Trump if the bilateral summits make a breakthrough.
Pyongyang is likely to make every effort to secure as many concessions as possible by engaging Beijing in the nuclear talks. By doing so, Kim can let the North obtain the status of a normal state. At the same time, he may try to weaken the Seoul-Washington alliance and demand the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the South, possibly later negotiations with America.
I hope President Moon's roadmap for comprehensive and synchronized denuclearization will be accepted as it aims to offer a dynamic and equitable solution to the issue. The roadmap will pursue the denuclearization of North Korea with reasonable compensations.
Traditionally, the U.S. contributed to containing the communist expansion and its challenges, including North Korea, ever since the end of World War II. Essentially, this is a series of status quo policy, not imperialistic ones. Nobody has viewed the U.S. status quo policy as imperialism.
Nevertheless, the Trump administration vividly remembers that a set of provocations from the Kim family have posed serious threats to peace on the Korean Peninsula, the U.S., and further the European Union.
The latest replacement of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and National Security Adviser Herbert McMaster by more conservative and hawkish Mike Pompeo and John Bolton, respectively, signals that the Trump administration will not make mistakes anymore in seeking a solution to the North Korean issue. The reshuffle is raising concerns that Trump might shift to military options if his summit with Kim ends up in failure.
It remains to be seen how the upcoming summits will play out in finding a solution to the nuclear showdown.
Heo Mane (mane398@naver.com) is a professor emeritus and adviser of the Korea-EU Forum.
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Beijing might have felt sidelined in the summitry toward denuclearization by Seoul, Pyongyang and Washington. Beijing seems to have closely watched the developments surrounding the Korean Peninsula since the South and the U.S. each agreed to hold a bilateral summit with North Korea, this month and next month respectively.
The government welcomed the Xi-Kim meeting as it is expected to improve strained Beijing-Pyongyang ties, which will subsequently have a positive effect on the North's denuclearization.
However, Kim may try to use the to-be-restored blood ties with China as leverage to boost his bargaining power at the summits with Moon and U.S. President Donald Trump. The Xi-Kim summit could also allow Beijing to play a bigger role in the denuclearization talks.
In this regard, there are some concerns that Kim may make efforts to weaken President Moon's role of taking the driver's seat in navigating toward the denuclearization of the North.
What effects will Kim's sudden visit to Beijing have on international efforts to make the North give up its nuclear program? How will it affect the upcoming summits?
Kim's diplomatic offensive might face serious challenges because the roadmap for denuclearization Seoul and Washington advocate is different from Pyongyang's.
Seoul's strategy appears to strike a comprehensive package deal with Pyongyang, while favoring step-by-step implementation of the deal. It is somewhat different from Washington's immediate and complete denuclearization of the North, which is similar to the Libyan-style denuclearization formula.
On the other hand, Kim Jong-un proposed a phased and simultaneous formula during his meeting with Xi. He apparently wants to take a step-by-step approach. It seems that Kim would like to demand rewards for each and every step it may take to scrap his nuclear arsenal. His formula could resemble salami tactics aimed at eliciting as many concessions from the U.S. and South Korea.
Trump, however, has called for a "complete, verifiable and irreversible" denuclearization. He has made it clear that no reward is available until the North completes its denuclearization process. He has also repeatedly said that he will not repeat mistakes committed by the previous U.S. administrations over the past 25 years.
The Beijing-Pyongyang summit is likely to help Kim be better positioned for denuclearization talks with Seoul and Washington. Kim and Xi reaffirmed that China and North Korea have maintained the blood alliance which goes well beyond a mere military alliance. They implied that the two countries want to restore the old-time friendship under which China and North Korea were as close as lips and teeth.
Seoul and Washington are now faced with another player, China. Seoul and Washington has sought to tackle Pyongyang's nuclear and missile development programs via the trilateral diplomacy involving the two Koreas and the U.S. South Korea has also floated the idea of holding a trilateral summit between Moon, Kim and Trump if the bilateral summits make a breakthrough.
Pyongyang is likely to make every effort to secure as many concessions as possible by engaging Beijing in the nuclear talks. By doing so, Kim can let the North obtain the status of a normal state. At the same time, he may try to weaken the Seoul-Washington alliance and demand the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the South, possibly later negotiations with America.
I hope President Moon's roadmap for comprehensive and synchronized denuclearization will be accepted as it aims to offer a dynamic and equitable solution to the issue. The roadmap will pursue the denuclearization of North Korea with reasonable compensations.
Traditionally, the U.S. contributed to containing the communist expansion and its challenges, including North Korea, ever since the end of World War II. Essentially, this is a series of status quo policy, not imperialistic ones. Nobody has viewed the U.S. status quo policy as imperialism.
Nevertheless, the Trump administration vividly remembers that a set of provocations from the Kim family have posed serious threats to peace on the Korean Peninsula, the U.S., and further the European Union.
The latest replacement of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and National Security Adviser Herbert McMaster by more conservative and hawkish Mike Pompeo and John Bolton, respectively, signals that the Trump administration will not make mistakes anymore in seeking a solution to the North Korean issue. The reshuffle is raising concerns that Trump might shift to military options if his summit with Kim ends up in failure.
It remains to be seen how the upcoming summits will play out in finding a solution to the nuclear showdown.
Heo Mane (mane398@naver.com) is a professor emeritus and adviser of the Korea-EU Forum.
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