Why 'Choi gate' doesn't matter

By Andrew Salmon

They came by the thousands, then by the millions. They occupied central Seoul to give voice to righteous indignation. They did it with a remarkable display of peaceful and orderly civic disobedience that has few precedents anywhere, ever. Their thunderous demand was simple: "Down with Park Geun-hye!"

Never since Korea achieved democracy has a local politician faced such a tsunami of venom. Not even Chun Do-hwan, who stole power via coup and oversaw the Gwangju Massacre of the 1980s, generated such colossal and emotive calls for justice.

The President is toast. When she exchanges the Blue House for a gray cell, legal wheels will turn and Korea will discover which of the countless accusations, rumors and conspiracy theories are actually true. If the allegations are proven, there will, no doubt, be tremendous satisfaction and nationwide schadenfreude. (If the allegations prove inaccurate or untrue… well, let's not even go there.)

But while protesters claim to be writing a new chapter in Korean democracy, we should ask: After the heads of Park and a handful of cronies have rolled, what ― if anything ― will have changed substantively? Will the downfall of "the queen and the witch" lead us to a land of milk and honey?

I doubt it. Significantly and worryingly, public calls for institutional reform, for corporate accountability and for an end to the endless power abuse of elites in both politics and business have been drowned out by the anti-Park roar. The dubious pleasure of viewing Park's humiliation may soon sour, for Korea's external challenges are untouched by one president's downfall. They are worldwide, long-term, big-picture ― and distinctly menacing for this nation.

The vote for Brexit in the U.K. and the election of Donald Trump in the U.S. are emblematic of a startling and worrisome global trend: A backlash against free trade and multiculturalism. Research this year indicates that global trade has peaked. The progress of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the body tasked with liberalizing international trade, has been stalled since 2001. If trade in goods and services turns downward, the free movement of peoples across borders ― a force once empowered by conquest and colonialism, but more latterly by commerce ― will also be impacted.

It looks possible, even likely, that Brexit negotiations will be contentious. They could damage both the EU and the U.K. Trumpian America is poised to take a defensive/aggressive stance towards global competition and free trade pacts. These trends forewarn of a possible erosion of WTO practices, a return to protectionism and trade wars.

These trends directly threaten Korea for stark reasons. The prime mover behind the rise of modern Korea and the enrichment of modern Koreans was global trade. Since 2002's credit crisis, domestic spending has been decimated. Today, Korea's economy is reliant upon trade; Korea's value-add is founded upon exports and Korea's stock and currency markets are at the mercy of global economic fluctuations.

Declining global trade is already degrading two critical local sectors which rely upon it: shipbuilding and shipping. The damage to shipbuilding ― which threatens a domino effect in the steel, engineering and paint sectors, not to mention the overall economy of Korea's southeast ― is compounded by the rise of Chinese ship yards, which have aggressively undercut Korean players, and low oil prices which (despite OPECs' desperate output cut) look like a long-term trend.

Amid Choi gate, there is minimal focus on these storm warnings. With the scandal monopolizing pages, screens and coffee-shop chatter, important stories ― such as Samsung's exploding phones and washing machines, and Beijing's assault on China's consumption of hallyu ― are ignored.

Once the excitement of Park's ruination and the subsequent presidential election evaporate, "Hell Joseon" will return with a vengeance. The unfairness of a society where law is disempowered, disrespected and distrusted, leaving protest the only venue for justice. Chaebol offshoring, which erodes investment, job growth and trickle down. The cruel irony of over-education, which leads to the import of millions of foreign workers while local youths face under- and unemployment. The demographic plunge, which places increasing tax and productivity burdens upon working Koreans.

More? The relentless rise of automation which threatens to consume jobs worldwide. The ongoing penetration by price-competitive Chinese brands on the global econoscape. And the fact that international trade is increasingly seen as a zero-sum game (so may, indeed, become one).

If these trends play out, Korea will face the demons Western economies have grappled with for decades: The decimation of the working classes and the erosion of middle classes.

Choi gate is a delicious participation sport, an addictive spectacle and an unstoppable bandwagon that everyone, from schoolchildren to prosecutors, has jumped on. The sooner it ends, the better. The national eye must refocus, with steady gaze, upon the host of menacing challenges gathering steam ahead of Korea's ship of state.

Andrew Salmon is a Seoul-based reporter and author. Reach him at andrewcsalmon@yahoo.co.uk.