N. Korea’s undue reliance on China has problems
A massive North Korean delegation visiting China reaffirms Pyongyang’s push for economic growth with the help of its Communist ally. This and most other signs admit little doubt about Kim Jong-un’s shift from ``seon-gun” (military-first) to ``seon-gyeong” (economy-first) policy. This is a welcome change, although the road ahead won’t be smooth.
Reform and openness were two words characterizing North Korea over the past eight months or so. Kim ousted former military chief and concentrated economic administration, which had been shared by the military and party, in the Cabinet. The twenty-something leader also showed he is an open-minded ruler unlike his father, disclosing his wife and enjoying U.S. popular culture in public.
One of the masterminds behind this turnaround is Jang Song-thaek, the No. 2 man in North Korea as Kim’s uncle and mentor. So his ongoing visit to China should not be seen as aimed at only building joint industrial complexes but has multiple purposes of a higher dimension. North Korea watchers say Jang might have requested a loan ranging from $1 billion to $10 billion, while negotiating procedures for the young leader’s diplomatic debut in Beijing.
We hope the North’s struggle for economic revival would succeed if for no other reason than it is better than seeking survival in other ways, such as military adventure. It is worrisome in this regard Pyongyang has yet to shake off its adherence to nuclear and missile programs.
Such military ambition would not matter much if the communist regime’s ultimate goal is to just avoid mass starvation and sustain its meager economy. But if the new leadership wants anything more than that, the first thing they should do is to break away from belligerent schemes.
There is another caveat Kim and his advisors should bear in mind: the reform should not remain as just a gesture but as bold as possible within the extent of threatening the regime from their own standpoint. And it would require an exquisite combination of governance ― persuading conservative opponents, including the military, and controlling the disruption of the long-oppressed popular demands ― as well as open itself wider to the outside world and respect international standards to attract foreign investment.
All this is far easier said than done. So it is natural Pyongyang is going all out diplomatically to mend estranged relations with Tokyo and Washington, while stressing traditional ties with Moscow.
The only exception is Seoul.
North Korea reportedly is loath to rely unduly on China for economic survival. The near subordination is also economically disadvantageous, as seen by reports that China has already preempted nearly half of North Korea’s mineral resources worth $6 trillion, which should have gone to South Korea, had the inter-Korean relationship not become so dismal to reach the state it is in now.
South Korea, not China or Vietnam, is the North’s best partner that has both the money and development know-how. Pyongyang should knock on Seoul’s door while throwing away its atomic bombs and missiles.
There are few reasons President Lee Myung-bak, who destroyed ties between the two Koreas because of his ideological and moralistic approach, should not make a turnaround in inter-Korean policy, as he did in diplomacy with Japan. Not much time is left for him, either.
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