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| Oh Young-jin |
It's high time for a change in tactics on North Korea. Instead of trying to prevent the North ― more specifically its leader ― from getting what it wants, why not give it exactly this as a horse with a Trojan streak or a chalice lined with poison.
For this strategy, above all, it is important to see what Pyongyang wants.
First, it wants to be recognized by the world as a nuclear weapon state. What does this mean?
The North wants this recognition so badly that it has been written into its constitution.
Striking a different path from his father and grandfather, the 33-year-old leader Kim Jong-un, has worked his state propaganda machine overtime and frequently played the lead role himself in bragging about the latest developments in its missile and nuclear development.
By now, it is clear that Kim has a purpose for trying to get credit for the progress in his country's programs for weapons of mass destruction.
It is a kind of reputation-building effort by Kim, who only has his "royal" pedigree to claim to be dictator-for-life in the gulag state. His father, Kim Jong-il, allegedly stage-managed a series of terrorist attacks and provocations against the South. His grandfather, Kim Il-sung, was the one who led an invasion against the South as a proxy of the now defunct Soviet Union.
The current one doesn't have anything to claim to be his. He obviously dreams of riding on the success of WMD programs, giving himself the legitimacy he lacks.
Now, what would we, the rest of the world, get or pay in return for allowing Kim to claim that he has made the North a nuclear state?
First of all, we could simply let the North rot by not paying attention to it. The North is a country of limited resources ― a fact that can't change just because it has outlived pundits' expectations. Hopefully, it would be a slow-motion death for being dragged into its expensive weapons programs.
Or we can invite Kim, elated over the global recognition, out of his cocoon state, give him a party, hoping he inadvertently lets in the wind of change. The end result is the demise of the North as we know it.
There are two kinds of recognition ― five nuclear states that are recognized by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and those outside it such as Pakistan and India. Israel is presumed to be nuclear capable, although it remains ambiguous on its possession.
The North is too open to be treated like Israel. If it is put together with Pakistan and India, we may ask the North to return to the NPT, which will allow a peek into what it really has. Also this status wouldn't give the North much except for recognition of its ownership of nuclear weapons and missiles. Last time it was checked, Pakistan and India were having a hard time in joining the Nuclear Suppliers' Group, empowering them to trade related materials.
There are bound to be complex issues entailing whatever recognition may be given to the North. First, it could be taken as a bad example by which a rogue state is rewarded for egregious behavior, encouraging other rogues to follow the example.
This could lead to the breakdown of the current NPT order, likely triggering a nuclear arms race in Northeast Asia.
Then, the North may threaten its neighbors and extort them by brandishing its nuclear weapons.
The very assumption that time is not on the North's side on these new tactics may be fundamentally flawed. But we can't expect what U.S. President Obama called a "moral revolution" to replace the "logic of fear" in the North anytime soon.
This necessitates the adoption of a new approach because the current approach has not worked. Neither ignoring the North nor slapping sanctions on it has worked.
Giving the North a sense of recognition and bringing it out for dialogue in one big waiting game may be a kind of constructive engagement that we need.
Just recalling what has taken place recently would make it not so bad a deal.
Here is the account.
The world has been reduced to the spectator watching North Korea's missile test as if it is a holiday firework. Last week, the North claimed a success in its testing of intermediate range ballistic missile, so far known as Musudan, and now renamed Hwangsong-2.
As Pyongyang boasted of progress made in re-entry technology, pivotal to striking the U.S. base in Guam, Seoul, Tokyo and Washington as well as the United Nations went through what has now become routine in the case of déjà vu. Seoul repeated its pledge not to accept a nuclear North Korea and threatened to retaliate against any provocations. Japan monitored the trajectory before calling it off, while the U.S. and the U.N. issued condemnation. North Korea praised its young dictator and gave him a pat on its back for going mano-a-mano with the U.S.
It's time to stop shaking our fists to the sky every time the North launched Taepodong or Musudan missiles.
Oh Young-jin is The Korea Times' chief editorial writer. Contact him at foolsdie5@ktimes.com or foolsdie@gmail.com.
