By Troy Stangarone
After four years of tensions over national security and trade, the United States and South Korea sought to reset relations in 2021. The election of Joe Biden as president of the United States allowed Washington and Seoul to reach a new agreement quickly on defense cost sharing and then agree to increase cooperation on issues ranging from supply chains to vaccine cooperation to climate change at the U.S.-Korea summit in May.
As 2022 begins, the United States and South Korea face three key issues: how to best cooperate in managing the pandemic and its impact on economic and security cooperation, how to address the political and economic coercion that continue to increase globally and how to deal with North Korea.
How the allies manage these three issues as South Korea begins its own presidential transition will be key to achieving progress in the year ahead. The pandemic, which has taken millions of lives globally, disrupted trade and heightened geopolitical tensions, is entering its third year. International coordination has been lacking during much of the pandemic. But with the rise of the Omicron variant and the potential for new variants in the year ahead, any effort to return life to normal in the United States and South Korea must include deeper cooperation on vaccinating the rest of the world's population.
Last May's summit meeting put forward a framework for increased U.S.-Korea cooperation to achieve that goal. It called for both countries to increase vaccine cooperation and work to scale up COVAX, the international effort to vaccinate middle- and low-income countries. It also called for expanding the production capacity for COVID-19 vaccines, specifically in South Korea, and working to secure the supply chains needed to produce vaccines. Both of these goals are also designed to help in dealing with potential future pandemics as well.
Fully implementing this agreement would help in returning life to normal domestically and in relieving some of pressure on supply chains that have begun to push up inflation in both countries. While disruptions from closures due to the pandemic have been a factor, global supply chains have largely worked well during the pandemic but have been under additional stress from significantly increased demand for durable consumer goods. The quicker that countries are able to move to "Living with COVID-19" policies and individuals can safely return to restaurants, movies and other forms of entertainment, the sooner strains on supply chains will ease.
Much of the focus on secure supply chains has been due to the pandemic, but it is also related to the political and economic coercion that has grown in recent years. China's efforts to coerce South Korea into withdrawing the THAAD missile defense system has become more common. While not alone in using this tactic, China has also recently attempted to coerce Australia into rescinding a call for an investigation into the origins of COVID-19 and Lithuania to refrain from opening a representative's office in Taiwan. It has even used similar tactics to silence voices in the NBA over its human rights record.
Addressing this issue will be critical for the alliance, as the United States is looking to South Korean firms to help in its transition to electric vehicles, specifically in regards to lithium-ion batteries. China is a key source for the materials needed to produce lithium-ion batteries.
In addition to electric vehicle batteries, key technologies such as semiconductors and 5G equipment are potentially vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. Increased cooperation to identify potential vulnerabilities and lower dependence on a single source will help to reduce the temptation of other countries to utilize trade as a tool to coerce the alliance.
The pandemic is also constraining the alliance's efforts to deal with North Korea. Despite the efforts of the Moon administration to restart negotiations with North Korea, talks remain stalled, including over an end-of-war declaration. Pyongyang's policies, while preventing the domestic spread of COVID-19, have created an economic crisis, one that it can only overcome with international assistance to deal with the pandemic. While there has been a concerted effort by the United States and South Korea to engage North Korea, the deeper reality is that as long as the pandemic continues North Korea is unlikely to negotiate from a position of weakness.
This presents a dilemma for the United States and South Korea. Failing to help North Korea through the pandemic could push nuclear talks further into the future. However, diverting significant resources to North Korea as long as Pyongyang remains opaque about COVID-19 domestically would mean taking scarce resources from countries known to be in need.
While the transition to Biden allowed the United States and South Korea to reset relations, how the allies manage the pandemic, economic coercion and North Korea will have implications beyond 2022.
Troy Stangarone (ts@keia.org) is the senior director of congressional affairs and trade at the Korea Economic Institute.
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As 2022 begins, the United States and South Korea face three key issues: how to best cooperate in managing the pandemic and its impact on economic and security cooperation, how to address the political and economic coercion that continue to increase globally and how to deal with North Korea.
How the allies manage these three issues as South Korea begins its own presidential transition will be key to achieving progress in the year ahead. The pandemic, which has taken millions of lives globally, disrupted trade and heightened geopolitical tensions, is entering its third year. International coordination has been lacking during much of the pandemic. But with the rise of the Omicron variant and the potential for new variants in the year ahead, any effort to return life to normal in the United States and South Korea must include deeper cooperation on vaccinating the rest of the world's population.
Last May's summit meeting put forward a framework for increased U.S.-Korea cooperation to achieve that goal. It called for both countries to increase vaccine cooperation and work to scale up COVAX, the international effort to vaccinate middle- and low-income countries. It also called for expanding the production capacity for COVID-19 vaccines, specifically in South Korea, and working to secure the supply chains needed to produce vaccines. Both of these goals are also designed to help in dealing with potential future pandemics as well.
Fully implementing this agreement would help in returning life to normal domestically and in relieving some of pressure on supply chains that have begun to push up inflation in both countries. While disruptions from closures due to the pandemic have been a factor, global supply chains have largely worked well during the pandemic but have been under additional stress from significantly increased demand for durable consumer goods. The quicker that countries are able to move to "Living with COVID-19" policies and individuals can safely return to restaurants, movies and other forms of entertainment, the sooner strains on supply chains will ease.
Much of the focus on secure supply chains has been due to the pandemic, but it is also related to the political and economic coercion that has grown in recent years. China's efforts to coerce South Korea into withdrawing the THAAD missile defense system has become more common. While not alone in using this tactic, China has also recently attempted to coerce Australia into rescinding a call for an investigation into the origins of COVID-19 and Lithuania to refrain from opening a representative's office in Taiwan. It has even used similar tactics to silence voices in the NBA over its human rights record.
Addressing this issue will be critical for the alliance, as the United States is looking to South Korean firms to help in its transition to electric vehicles, specifically in regards to lithium-ion batteries. China is a key source for the materials needed to produce lithium-ion batteries.
In addition to electric vehicle batteries, key technologies such as semiconductors and 5G equipment are potentially vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. Increased cooperation to identify potential vulnerabilities and lower dependence on a single source will help to reduce the temptation of other countries to utilize trade as a tool to coerce the alliance.
The pandemic is also constraining the alliance's efforts to deal with North Korea. Despite the efforts of the Moon administration to restart negotiations with North Korea, talks remain stalled, including over an end-of-war declaration. Pyongyang's policies, while preventing the domestic spread of COVID-19, have created an economic crisis, one that it can only overcome with international assistance to deal with the pandemic. While there has been a concerted effort by the United States and South Korea to engage North Korea, the deeper reality is that as long as the pandemic continues North Korea is unlikely to negotiate from a position of weakness.
This presents a dilemma for the United States and South Korea. Failing to help North Korea through the pandemic could push nuclear talks further into the future. However, diverting significant resources to North Korea as long as Pyongyang remains opaque about COVID-19 domestically would mean taking scarce resources from countries known to be in need.
While the transition to Biden allowed the United States and South Korea to reset relations, how the allies manage the pandemic, economic coercion and North Korea will have implications beyond 2022.
Troy Stangarone (ts@keia.org) is the senior director of congressional affairs and trade at the Korea Economic Institute.
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