By Oh Young-jin
In six years, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has transformed from a baby-faced 20-something heir of one of the world's most destitute nations to a dictator in his own right, going mano-a-mano with the leader of a superpower.
What has made such a quantum leap possible? Is it a leap of faith?
The North is not much economically better than when he took power after the death of his stroke-stricken father.
The young dictator's face is still youthful and he is trying less hard to resemble his grandfather and founder of the reclusive state, Kim Il-sung, in order to polish his charisma and beef up his weak CV as the third-generation leader of the Kim dynasty.
What has got him in the league of U.S. President Donald Trump or Xi Jinping of China is his defiant but seemingly successful effort to push ahead the North's programs for nuclear weapons and inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), despite all-out international efforts to derail them.
Lost amid the din over the North's standoff is that even if it completes them, it would still be a poor state with missiles and nukes. After all, North Koreans can't live on the diet of these weapons.
The North is said to be on the path of Pakistan with regards to nuclear armament. The South Asian country is as unstable as the North is dictatorial. Still we worry more about the North than Pakistan. Why?
There can be many reasons and one salient factor is our sense of exaggeration _ looking at the North's threat being much larger than what it is. Our lack of knowledge about the country and our imagination that comes with it act as a magnifying glass. Trump is holding it up for maximum magnification.
As leader of the world's only superpower, he first suggested having a hamburger with the young dictator, then canceling it, then threatening to rain fire and fury on him, then calling him wise, then calling quits on talks, then threatening total annihilation again, and so on and so forth. He has done all this with some prompting from the North. Often Trump has played the roles of both himself and Kim. All the young North Korean leader has done to play the U.S. leader of twice his age is launch some missiles and conduct one nuclear test.
Kim is now equal to Trump or looks smarter than Trump and acts as if he ignored Xi of China, the supposed only benefactor of the North. .
This is definitely out of place.
True, these provocative acts are intimidating but not enough so as to trigger panic. The North hasn't mastered the complicated technologies for re-entry and miniaturization of a nuclear payload, although it is obviously making a progress. The North's current nuclear arsenal is composed of dumb bombs that can't reach the U.S.
Its frontline artillery has posed a fatal threat to the South for a long time before the North has nukes. Besides, the U.S. nuclear arsenal easily amounts to thousands of times larger in strength and number than that of the North.
North Korea is an unpredictable rogue state but South Korea and its ally, the U.S. that provides a nuclear umbrella are much stronger and will maintain their superior strength even after the North becomes a nuclear state. So, we may be worrying in advance about a future that may or may not come and being frightened by it.
Some newspapers talked about the possibility of the U.S. being pushed to choose between San Francisco and Seoul by a nuclear-armed North Korea. Their conclusion is that the U.S. could let the North take over the South because the U.S. couldn't interfere for fear of an attack on one of its own population centers.
For that to happen, the North should complete related development, conduct enough field tests, acquire a considerable stockpile, and overcome the fear of total destruction by the U.S. It is still a tossup how long it will sustain itself with its nukes.
Our myth-making habit is at work.
Six years ago, the young dictator was dismissed as an inexperienced successor who might not keep the throne for long. Then when he had his mentor and uncle, Jang Song-taek, executed by anti-aircraft guns, he got a boost in his dictatorial reputation for being ruthless. Killing his self-exiled half-brother with a lethal chemical overseas got him a promotion to infamy, making the world believe he had staying power. By that time, some experts stated that he was not crazy but rational, besides being ruthless and having staying power.
This progression of evaluations is the result of our readings about the North often without concrete evidence _ defectors' accounts, checks with its publications and wishful thinking-based analyses.
Are we sure the Kim Jong-un we saw in a North Korean photograph watching a missile launch in Sunan Airport in Pyongyang was indeed Kim Jong-un, the real McCoy? Or how much skepticism do we apply when checking with the North's claim about its ability to miniaturize a thermonuclear warhead on a missile that can reach the U.S.?
It would be better to err on the side of caution. But it is still necessary to see whether we are suffering from an optical illusion created by the North and amplified by our own wishful thinking, and falling for smoke and mirrors. It may prove to be much smaller than real life.
Oh Young-jin is The Korea Times' chief editorial writer. Contact foolsdie5@ktimes.com and foolsdie@gmail.com.
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What has made such a quantum leap possible? Is it a leap of faith?
The North is not much economically better than when he took power after the death of his stroke-stricken father.
The young dictator's face is still youthful and he is trying less hard to resemble his grandfather and founder of the reclusive state, Kim Il-sung, in order to polish his charisma and beef up his weak CV as the third-generation leader of the Kim dynasty.
What has got him in the league of U.S. President Donald Trump or Xi Jinping of China is his defiant but seemingly successful effort to push ahead the North's programs for nuclear weapons and inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), despite all-out international efforts to derail them.
Lost amid the din over the North's standoff is that even if it completes them, it would still be a poor state with missiles and nukes. After all, North Koreans can't live on the diet of these weapons.
The North is said to be on the path of Pakistan with regards to nuclear armament. The South Asian country is as unstable as the North is dictatorial. Still we worry more about the North than Pakistan. Why?
There can be many reasons and one salient factor is our sense of exaggeration _ looking at the North's threat being much larger than what it is. Our lack of knowledge about the country and our imagination that comes with it act as a magnifying glass. Trump is holding it up for maximum magnification.
As leader of the world's only superpower, he first suggested having a hamburger with the young dictator, then canceling it, then threatening to rain fire and fury on him, then calling him wise, then calling quits on talks, then threatening total annihilation again, and so on and so forth. He has done all this with some prompting from the North. Often Trump has played the roles of both himself and Kim. All the young North Korean leader has done to play the U.S. leader of twice his age is launch some missiles and conduct one nuclear test.
Kim is now equal to Trump or looks smarter than Trump and acts as if he ignored Xi of China, the supposed only benefactor of the North. .
This is definitely out of place.
True, these provocative acts are intimidating but not enough so as to trigger panic. The North hasn't mastered the complicated technologies for re-entry and miniaturization of a nuclear payload, although it is obviously making a progress. The North's current nuclear arsenal is composed of dumb bombs that can't reach the U.S.
Its frontline artillery has posed a fatal threat to the South for a long time before the North has nukes. Besides, the U.S. nuclear arsenal easily amounts to thousands of times larger in strength and number than that of the North.
North Korea is an unpredictable rogue state but South Korea and its ally, the U.S. that provides a nuclear umbrella are much stronger and will maintain their superior strength even after the North becomes a nuclear state. So, we may be worrying in advance about a future that may or may not come and being frightened by it.
Some newspapers talked about the possibility of the U.S. being pushed to choose between San Francisco and Seoul by a nuclear-armed North Korea. Their conclusion is that the U.S. could let the North take over the South because the U.S. couldn't interfere for fear of an attack on one of its own population centers.
For that to happen, the North should complete related development, conduct enough field tests, acquire a considerable stockpile, and overcome the fear of total destruction by the U.S. It is still a tossup how long it will sustain itself with its nukes.
Our myth-making habit is at work.
Six years ago, the young dictator was dismissed as an inexperienced successor who might not keep the throne for long. Then when he had his mentor and uncle, Jang Song-taek, executed by anti-aircraft guns, he got a boost in his dictatorial reputation for being ruthless. Killing his self-exiled half-brother with a lethal chemical overseas got him a promotion to infamy, making the world believe he had staying power. By that time, some experts stated that he was not crazy but rational, besides being ruthless and having staying power.
This progression of evaluations is the result of our readings about the North often without concrete evidence _ defectors' accounts, checks with its publications and wishful thinking-based analyses.
Are we sure the Kim Jong-un we saw in a North Korean photograph watching a missile launch in Sunan Airport in Pyongyang was indeed Kim Jong-un, the real McCoy? Or how much skepticism do we apply when checking with the North's claim about its ability to miniaturize a thermonuclear warhead on a missile that can reach the U.S.?
It would be better to err on the side of caution. But it is still necessary to see whether we are suffering from an optical illusion created by the North and amplified by our own wishful thinking, and falling for smoke and mirrors. It may prove to be much smaller than real life.
Oh Young-jin is The Korea Times' chief editorial writer. Contact foolsdie5@ktimes.com and foolsdie@gmail.com.
