By Oh Young-jin
What are the odds of the next president getting impeached?
If we put the weathermen's probability to the extreme, it would be safe to say that the odds are greater than before. If you insist on knowing "before what," what here is the traumatic experience we are now undergoing in connection with the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye.
Here is one very subjective call involved.
Would people want to relive this excoriating period?
They don't but it is unavoidable. After all, humans are creatures of habit.
There is proof of sorts already. Hwang Kyo-an, prime minister who acts as president, decided not to grant an extension on the special prosecutor's probe into the so-called Choi Soon-sil-gate, named after Park's alter ego, the central figure of the scandal that has shaken the nation to its foundation. The opposition parties threatened to impeach Hwang as well.
Numbers can play a role in that political apocalyptical scenario.
Polls show that any candidate who wins the ticket of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) will likely win the presidential election, whether it is frontrunner Moon Jae-in, a losing candidate in the previous election, dark horse An Hee-jung, governor of South Cheongchung Province, or maverick Seongnam Mayor Lee Jae-myung. The impeachment saga has put the conservatives in total disarray.
Not factored in is the likelihood that the winning candidate gains a "true majority."
The total eligible voters for the election likely in May is about 42 million, calculated for the general elections last year. If 70 percent cast ballots, it would be about 29 million. One can win the election on anything over the majority or about 15 million. But one can dispute the victory by arguing that the true majority requires more than 20 million votes, half of the eligible voters or close to 70 percent of votes cast. .
Sounds surreal? You may be right in a perfect world that democracy works perfectly but we don't.
Take the example of candlelit protestors vs. "Taegukgi units."
The candlelight started to condemn Park's governing idiosyncrasies that, among other things, dealt with presidential mandate like personal property. It was and still is the case of people power prevailing over the unworthy leader.
But it is now often portrayed as a liberal movement, in contrast to a growing turnout of people who wrap them with national flags and demand the Constitutional Court dismiss the Park case. They are led by renegade pro-Park lawmakers, belong to the older generations, draw in conservative support and gets bigger.
Throw in the do-or-die ideological confrontation that is finding its outlet in the Park case and it is likely that these conservatives may dismiss the progressive election winner unless he wins the true majority. Even if he wins the true majority, it is quite possible that the naysayers call him "not my president" or "half president."
Then, spoiling the DPK's chance of shoo-in president is that any conservative standard bearer turns into a lightning rod and tighten the election. Optimists point out that there is less than three months left before the election, considering that it should be held within two months after Park is disqualified as president. The ruling is expected around the second week of March so the election should be held in May. (The Constitutional Court is widely expected to back the impeachment against Park. Even if it doesn't, it is widely believed that Park couldn't come back to office.) Prime Minister Hwang came in second with 16.9 percent against Moon's 45.8 percent in a simulated duel, according to the recent survey by Hankook Ilbo, the sister paper of The Korea Times. Hwang has not even declared his candidacy.
The real challenge for the nation may come after the election.
The illiberals of Korean variety would get organized and try to throw the wrench in every governing action by the liberal president.
Perhaps, they may feel revanchist, doing what was done against Park on him.
In that sense, the Park case is worth a second look.
True, she has been a terrible president for her imperial modus operandi. But just imagine what if Choi's tablet PC containing evidence of illegal power sharing was not found? The nation could have been under Park's rule, complaining about her tactless governance.
There was another case of candlelit protests that almost toppled the government of Lee Myung-bak, Park's predecessor. Then, for months, the protesters occupied Gwangwhamun Boulevard to demand the resumption of U.S. beef imports halted amid mad cow fears. It turned out to be a case of much ado about nothing : a misguided report that triggered a nationwide civil disobedience movement.
As shown in the latest candlelit protests and counter-protests, now the mass is more highly mobilized thanks to the ever-present SNS. But what boils the pot is the zeitgeist of the post-truth era that we are living in ― where the borderline between truth and falsity gets blurred and the borderline itself shifts as well and where we want to believe what we want to believe and it magically turns into truth.
In other words, the next president should be made aware that even before election he is running the risk of being impeached, considering he takes office at a time when the nation is highly divided and ideological conflict of the proportion of candlelit protests can be the striking of a match away, so to speak. Some now say that the biggest achievement for the next president would be complete his term, pointing out that through Park's impeachment, the people has tasted the most addictive aphrodisiac, named power, and may want to have it again and again.
Then, how would he avoid the repeat of Park's fate?
The answer is as simple as politics involving impeachment is complicated.
He can survive by giving half of his power to the other side: appointing a prime minister with conservative credentials and giving him a big power to him. It is easier said than done. Power is like a question that is in search for answer ― he who has it wants to have it all to himself.
Oh Young-jin is The Korea Times' chief editorial writer. Contact foolsdie5@ktimes.com and foolsdie@gmail.com.
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If we put the weathermen's probability to the extreme, it would be safe to say that the odds are greater than before. If you insist on knowing "before what," what here is the traumatic experience we are now undergoing in connection with the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye.
Here is one very subjective call involved.
Would people want to relive this excoriating period?
They don't but it is unavoidable. After all, humans are creatures of habit.
There is proof of sorts already. Hwang Kyo-an, prime minister who acts as president, decided not to grant an extension on the special prosecutor's probe into the so-called Choi Soon-sil-gate, named after Park's alter ego, the central figure of the scandal that has shaken the nation to its foundation. The opposition parties threatened to impeach Hwang as well.
Numbers can play a role in that political apocalyptical scenario.
Polls show that any candidate who wins the ticket of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) will likely win the presidential election, whether it is frontrunner Moon Jae-in, a losing candidate in the previous election, dark horse An Hee-jung, governor of South Cheongchung Province, or maverick Seongnam Mayor Lee Jae-myung. The impeachment saga has put the conservatives in total disarray.
Not factored in is the likelihood that the winning candidate gains a "true majority."
The total eligible voters for the election likely in May is about 42 million, calculated for the general elections last year. If 70 percent cast ballots, it would be about 29 million. One can win the election on anything over the majority or about 15 million. But one can dispute the victory by arguing that the true majority requires more than 20 million votes, half of the eligible voters or close to 70 percent of votes cast. .
Sounds surreal? You may be right in a perfect world that democracy works perfectly but we don't.
Take the example of candlelit protestors vs. "Taegukgi units."
The candlelight started to condemn Park's governing idiosyncrasies that, among other things, dealt with presidential mandate like personal property. It was and still is the case of people power prevailing over the unworthy leader.
But it is now often portrayed as a liberal movement, in contrast to a growing turnout of people who wrap them with national flags and demand the Constitutional Court dismiss the Park case. They are led by renegade pro-Park lawmakers, belong to the older generations, draw in conservative support and gets bigger.
Throw in the do-or-die ideological confrontation that is finding its outlet in the Park case and it is likely that these conservatives may dismiss the progressive election winner unless he wins the true majority. Even if he wins the true majority, it is quite possible that the naysayers call him "not my president" or "half president."
Then, spoiling the DPK's chance of shoo-in president is that any conservative standard bearer turns into a lightning rod and tighten the election. Optimists point out that there is less than three months left before the election, considering that it should be held within two months after Park is disqualified as president. The ruling is expected around the second week of March so the election should be held in May. (The Constitutional Court is widely expected to back the impeachment against Park. Even if it doesn't, it is widely believed that Park couldn't come back to office.) Prime Minister Hwang came in second with 16.9 percent against Moon's 45.8 percent in a simulated duel, according to the recent survey by Hankook Ilbo, the sister paper of The Korea Times. Hwang has not even declared his candidacy.
The real challenge for the nation may come after the election.
The illiberals of Korean variety would get organized and try to throw the wrench in every governing action by the liberal president.
Perhaps, they may feel revanchist, doing what was done against Park on him.
In that sense, the Park case is worth a second look.
True, she has been a terrible president for her imperial modus operandi. But just imagine what if Choi's tablet PC containing evidence of illegal power sharing was not found? The nation could have been under Park's rule, complaining about her tactless governance.
There was another case of candlelit protests that almost toppled the government of Lee Myung-bak, Park's predecessor. Then, for months, the protesters occupied Gwangwhamun Boulevard to demand the resumption of U.S. beef imports halted amid mad cow fears. It turned out to be a case of much ado about nothing : a misguided report that triggered a nationwide civil disobedience movement.
As shown in the latest candlelit protests and counter-protests, now the mass is more highly mobilized thanks to the ever-present SNS. But what boils the pot is the zeitgeist of the post-truth era that we are living in ― where the borderline between truth and falsity gets blurred and the borderline itself shifts as well and where we want to believe what we want to believe and it magically turns into truth.
In other words, the next president should be made aware that even before election he is running the risk of being impeached, considering he takes office at a time when the nation is highly divided and ideological conflict of the proportion of candlelit protests can be the striking of a match away, so to speak. Some now say that the biggest achievement for the next president would be complete his term, pointing out that through Park's impeachment, the people has tasted the most addictive aphrodisiac, named power, and may want to have it again and again.
Then, how would he avoid the repeat of Park's fate?
The answer is as simple as politics involving impeachment is complicated.
He can survive by giving half of his power to the other side: appointing a prime minister with conservative credentials and giving him a big power to him. It is easier said than done. Power is like a question that is in search for answer ― he who has it wants to have it all to himself.
Oh Young-jin is The Korea Times' chief editorial writer. Contact foolsdie5@ktimes.com and foolsdie@gmail.com.
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