North Korea should abandon brinkmanship approaches
North Korea has said it would consider resuming "all temporarily-suspended activities," in an apparent threat to restart the testing of nuclear weapons and inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). At a politburo meeting of North Korea's ruling Workers' Party, the reclusive country's leader Kim Jong-un decided to "review all trust-building measures and consider restarting such activities," according to the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), Thursday.
This can be interpreted as the North's intention to forego Kim's declaration in April 2018 for a moratorium on the testing of nuclear weapons and ICBMs. The North's announcement came on the same day as U.S. President Joe Biden's press conference marking the first anniversary of his inauguration and the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) held a behind-the-scenes meeting to discuss North Korea's repeated firing of ballistic missiles. Yet the UNSC failed to take additional retaliatory measures against the North due to opposition from China and Russia.
The motives behind the North's reliance on such military provocations are clear. First, Pyongyang has been grappling with the worst ever economic crunch due to the U.S.-led international sanctions, and the unrelenting COVID-19 pandemic, which led the reclusive nation to adopt further lockdowns, coupled with its strenuous bids to build up nuclear capabilities.
According to the Bank of Korea, the North's external trade in 2020 dwindled by more than 20 percent from the previous year while its economic size backtracked to the level in 2003. As the North has failed to find a breakthrough solution to such diverse problems, it has been desperate to extract further concessions from the United States and other countries by threatening to test nuclear weapons and ICBMs, according to experts.
Despite the North's bids to pressure the U.S. to make further concessions, the situation is not favorable for Pyongyang as the U.S. is now engrossed in efforts to find solutions in other major diplomatic affairs involving growing disputes with China, Russia's possible invasion into Ukraine and nuclear deal with Iran.
Against this backdrop, it is not appropriate for the Moon Jae-in administration to stick to its pursuit of the declaration of a formal end to the Korea War. This does not necessarily mean it should abandon efforts to find a solution through dialogue. On the other hand, the government needs to take resolute and prompt measures to cope with the lingering threats from North Korea to mitigate a sense of insecurity among the people.
Last but not least, we would like to stress the significant roles of major presidential candidates. This is because the North will likely conduct missile and nuclear weapons tests to impress the new president of the South, whoever it will be, as it did when Moon took office. The candidates should come up with their own ideas on how to deal with the North Korean nuclear threat and how to place it in the delicate relations between the U.S. and China.
North Korea has said it would consider resuming "all temporarily-suspended activities," in an apparent threat to restart the testing of nuclear weapons and inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). At a politburo meeting of North Korea's ruling Workers' Party, the reclusive country's leader Kim Jong-un decided to "review all trust-building measures and consider restarting such activities," according to the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), Thursday.
This can be interpreted as the North's intention to forego Kim's declaration in April 2018 for a moratorium on the testing of nuclear weapons and ICBMs. The North's announcement came on the same day as U.S. President Joe Biden's press conference marking the first anniversary of his inauguration and the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) held a behind-the-scenes meeting to discuss North Korea's repeated firing of ballistic missiles. Yet the UNSC failed to take additional retaliatory measures against the North due to opposition from China and Russia.
The motives behind the North's reliance on such military provocations are clear. First, Pyongyang has been grappling with the worst ever economic crunch due to the U.S.-led international sanctions, and the unrelenting COVID-19 pandemic, which led the reclusive nation to adopt further lockdowns, coupled with its strenuous bids to build up nuclear capabilities.
According to the Bank of Korea, the North's external trade in 2020 dwindled by more than 20 percent from the previous year while its economic size backtracked to the level in 2003. As the North has failed to find a breakthrough solution to such diverse problems, it has been desperate to extract further concessions from the United States and other countries by threatening to test nuclear weapons and ICBMs, according to experts.
Despite the North's bids to pressure the U.S. to make further concessions, the situation is not favorable for Pyongyang as the U.S. is now engrossed in efforts to find solutions in other major diplomatic affairs involving growing disputes with China, Russia's possible invasion into Ukraine and nuclear deal with Iran.
Against this backdrop, it is not appropriate for the Moon Jae-in administration to stick to its pursuit of the declaration of a formal end to the Korea War. This does not necessarily mean it should abandon efforts to find a solution through dialogue. On the other hand, the government needs to take resolute and prompt measures to cope with the lingering threats from North Korea to mitigate a sense of insecurity among the people.
Last but not least, we would like to stress the significant roles of major presidential candidates. This is because the North will likely conduct missile and nuclear weapons tests to impress the new president of the South, whoever it will be, as it did when Moon took office. The candidates should come up with their own ideas on how to deal with the North Korean nuclear threat and how to place it in the delicate relations between the U.S. and China.
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