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| Mason Richey |
By Mason Richey
This year has been wild ― from Donald Trump's scorched-earth politics and high-stakes Korean summits to Middle East volatility and BTS's meteoric rise. But 2018 is so passe, and just as generals should avoid fighting the last war, we shouldn't focus on the past.
The important thing now is what lies ahead in 2019. Indeed, the new year promises questions and event outcomes portending long-lasting repercussions. In that spirit, I am providing a list of key political and economic developments to monitor in the impending year of the pig.
The West's political crackup: The U.S. and Europe have, since World War II, rarely been as dysfunctional as they are now. A primary driver of this disarray has been pathological politics. Next year offers crucial political inflection points at which Western democracies will either retreat from growing populist nationalism and tribal polarization, or succumb and embark on an inchoate path of illiberalism.
In the U.S., the most critical development will be the ongoing investigation by special prosecutor Robert Mueller, as well as investigations by the new Democratic majority in the House of Representatives. Indeed, Mueller has already implicated President Trump in campaign finance violations, along with his former attorney. Trump may not care about his underlings indicted via the investigation, but evidence of further criminal wrongdoing by himself or his family members (Don Jr., Ivanka, Jared Kushner) would likely lead Trump to lash out, possibly including firing Mueller illegally and/or committing obstruction of justice. This would precipitate a constitutional crisis and perhaps lead to impeachment proceedings. The process and effects of such a crisis would tear at the sinews of the U.S. body politic.
Europe is now a rudderless ship heading for the rocks. The most obvious crisis is Brexit. The Brexit plan British PM Theresa May negotiated with the European Union has little chance of passing the House of Commons; the EU says it won't renegotiate the deal. That leaves a no-deal Brexit, with potentially awful economic consequences for the U.K. (and major downsides for the EU also,) and/or new elections likely to bring to power either Labour's Jeremy Corbyn or a Tory Brexit-huckster such as Boris Johnson. Both would be very divisive. There is only one remotely good option at this point ― an improbable Brexit exit following a second referendum massively supporting Britain remaining in the EU. Of course there would be many bitter pro-Brexit supporters deeply alienated from British and European politics, so even a Brexit exit has major downsides.
France and Germany are confronting major pushback against their political establishments. Emmanuel Macron, who came to power outside traditional party structures, is facing an intense, widespread and decentralized revolt against his arrogant presidency, indeed against the entire French political system. Meanwhile, the nominally major political parties on the center-right and center-left have fallen into irrelevance, so there is no mainstream political current to co-opt the revolutionary furor and channel it into constructive reforms.
In Germany, Angela Merkel, the steward of moderate policy in Berlin and throughout the EU, has seen her domestic power erode such that she resigned as leader of her ruling party. She will likely follow suit as Chancellor in 2019. The German far-right is gaining support quickly and there is a high possibility that Merkel's successor will not have her steady hand or tactical and strategic acumen in domestic and European politics.
The global economy: 2019 marks 10 years since the start of the recovery from the 2008 economic crisis and there are many warning lights flashing. The U.S.-China trade war represents serious downside risk to the global economy, if Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping do not find solutions to their differences over trade by next March. March is also the moment of truth for Brexit, with consequences of a chaotic no-deal Brexit causing financial market and economic ripples throughout Europe and into the global economy. Finally, 2018 was a year of market volatility and there is reason to believe that will continue. Per se, this is not a problem, but markets are forward-looking and they may be telling us that unpleasant real-economy shocks are lurking in 2019.
Geostrategic risks: Numerous flashpoints threaten peace in 2019. Korean Peninsula diplomacy in 2018 has been a relief, but inter-Korean reconciliation has progressed much faster than North Korean denuclearization. If Washington and Pyongyang can't move forward on disarmament during 2019, the peninsula is liable to fall back into crisis as in 2017. Although less acutely dangerous, the U.S. and China are still locked in geostrategic competition, which could tip over into confrontation in numerous areas, notably the South China Sea. The Middle East is still a disaster, particularly Syria and Yemen. But things can always get worse, so watch for escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and regional destabilization if Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu is felled by ongoing corruption indictments.
May you live in interesting times!
Mason Richey is professor of international politics at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.
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