By Paul Tyson
Is there likely to be a summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un along the lines of those former President Donald Trump held with Kim? Not likely anytime soon from Washington's perspective.
Why? For Biden and his advisors, a summit so soon after the defeat of Trump represents a potential trap and embarrassment. Trump's boast of having achieved successful relationships built on his own personality has proven to be a negative factor and overshadowed Biden's meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin for example.
How could a Biden summit with Kim match such Trumpian theatrical elements as floral arrangements and love letters? Stepping over the line in Panmunjom? A meeting in Singapore? Nice for some but not really Joe Biden's style. Many in America thought that the Kim-Trump theatrics were tacky (and they were) and that they would look even worse with Biden, who could commit his own gaffes.
To be sure, there were benefits produced by the Trump-Kim summits. The threat of war receded. There were no more nuclear or ballistic missiles tests. For what it's worth, the Trump-Kim love fest stopped a juggernaut that had been moving towards a confrontation.
The Trump summits also gave the Kim family the global attention that they have been seeking for decades. Trump provided Kim with the Manhattan and Mar A Lago glitz that he craved, while Trump in return got glad-handing photos, love notes and publicity.
Nuclear disarmament? Well, the agreed-upon definitions in the Singapore Declaration were not really agreed to, so that remains a major fudge factor. But Trump offered some concessions and there is no going back in some ways.
There is a problem, however, that resulted from the Trump-Kim summits. Kim is not likely to put himself in the position of negotiating with anyone except the U.S. president in the future. Anyone with less status is a lackey being sent, and an insult.
If any Biden-Kim summit materializes, it would have to begin with other high-level meetings between the two sides. An act of outreach by Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman or Special Representative Sung Kim would be a start, to be later followed by moves from Secretary of State Tony Blinken and North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho. Such a sequence would follow normal diplomatic protocol.
Although Blinken enjoys the confidence of Biden, with the two men having worked together for years, I would like to make another "out-of-the-box" suggestion in terms of getting negotiations going again.
Vice President Kamala Harris could meet with a delegation headed by Kim Yo-jong, the North Korean leader's sister. Both women have close ties with their countries' top leaders. The two could lay their cards on the table and see what is possible.
Kim Yo-jong already has had experience in dealing with American vice presidents. The shadow she cast on then-vice president Mike Pence at the PyeongChang Olympics generated headlines around the world. The Pyongyang Ice Queen made her mark.
Since she is a descendant of the "Mount Paektu bloodline," claiming direct lineage to the country's founder Kim Il-sung, she has an extraordinary sense of self that gives her great confidence.
She appears to play a major behind-the-scenes role in Pyongyang, although the extent of the influence she wields is keeping a whole array of worldwide intelligence agencies busy. But it is a fact that she has taken the lead in commenting on relations between Washington and Pyongyang, so her declarations are closely watched.
Kim Yo-jong's evolution into Pyongyang's top de facto diplomat offers other advantages to North Korea. In a world where there are more female heads of state and senior officials, it is useful for North Korea to have one of their own to show off.
Vice President Harris also has a strong sense of self and a very diverse background. The daughter of highly-educated immigrants from Jamaica and India, she has made a successful career in law and politics and is a quintessential example of the American success story.
Having been born and spent much of her life in California, where she represented the state in the U.S. Senate, Harris is also familiar with the Korean-American community, while her political career has given her insights into defense and diplomatic issues, including those with Korea. Assuming the role of a negotiator with Kim Yo-jong would enhance her status and could very well fit with her plans to run for president again once Biden departs from the scene.
Harris also has the chops to deal with Kim Yo-jong that Pence clearly lacked in his brief encounter with her. Indeed, the two might have a wary respect for each other. The photo op of two powerful women of color meeting and negotiating is a good one for both.
Tea at the DMZ or a Singapore redux? Stay tuned. Just maybe.
Paul Tyson is a retired U.S. diplomat teaching diplomacy and government at New England College.
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Why? For Biden and his advisors, a summit so soon after the defeat of Trump represents a potential trap and embarrassment. Trump's boast of having achieved successful relationships built on his own personality has proven to be a negative factor and overshadowed Biden's meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin for example.
How could a Biden summit with Kim match such Trumpian theatrical elements as floral arrangements and love letters? Stepping over the line in Panmunjom? A meeting in Singapore? Nice for some but not really Joe Biden's style. Many in America thought that the Kim-Trump theatrics were tacky (and they were) and that they would look even worse with Biden, who could commit his own gaffes.
To be sure, there were benefits produced by the Trump-Kim summits. The threat of war receded. There were no more nuclear or ballistic missiles tests. For what it's worth, the Trump-Kim love fest stopped a juggernaut that had been moving towards a confrontation.
The Trump summits also gave the Kim family the global attention that they have been seeking for decades. Trump provided Kim with the Manhattan and Mar A Lago glitz that he craved, while Trump in return got glad-handing photos, love notes and publicity.
Nuclear disarmament? Well, the agreed-upon definitions in the Singapore Declaration were not really agreed to, so that remains a major fudge factor. But Trump offered some concessions and there is no going back in some ways.
There is a problem, however, that resulted from the Trump-Kim summits. Kim is not likely to put himself in the position of negotiating with anyone except the U.S. president in the future. Anyone with less status is a lackey being sent, and an insult.
If any Biden-Kim summit materializes, it would have to begin with other high-level meetings between the two sides. An act of outreach by Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman or Special Representative Sung Kim would be a start, to be later followed by moves from Secretary of State Tony Blinken and North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho. Such a sequence would follow normal diplomatic protocol.
Although Blinken enjoys the confidence of Biden, with the two men having worked together for years, I would like to make another "out-of-the-box" suggestion in terms of getting negotiations going again.
Vice President Kamala Harris could meet with a delegation headed by Kim Yo-jong, the North Korean leader's sister. Both women have close ties with their countries' top leaders. The two could lay their cards on the table and see what is possible.
Kim Yo-jong already has had experience in dealing with American vice presidents. The shadow she cast on then-vice president Mike Pence at the PyeongChang Olympics generated headlines around the world. The Pyongyang Ice Queen made her mark.
Since she is a descendant of the "Mount Paektu bloodline," claiming direct lineage to the country's founder Kim Il-sung, she has an extraordinary sense of self that gives her great confidence.
She appears to play a major behind-the-scenes role in Pyongyang, although the extent of the influence she wields is keeping a whole array of worldwide intelligence agencies busy. But it is a fact that she has taken the lead in commenting on relations between Washington and Pyongyang, so her declarations are closely watched.
Kim Yo-jong's evolution into Pyongyang's top de facto diplomat offers other advantages to North Korea. In a world where there are more female heads of state and senior officials, it is useful for North Korea to have one of their own to show off.
Vice President Harris also has a strong sense of self and a very diverse background. The daughter of highly-educated immigrants from Jamaica and India, she has made a successful career in law and politics and is a quintessential example of the American success story.
Having been born and spent much of her life in California, where she represented the state in the U.S. Senate, Harris is also familiar with the Korean-American community, while her political career has given her insights into defense and diplomatic issues, including those with Korea. Assuming the role of a negotiator with Kim Yo-jong would enhance her status and could very well fit with her plans to run for president again once Biden departs from the scene.
Harris also has the chops to deal with Kim Yo-jong that Pence clearly lacked in his brief encounter with her. Indeed, the two might have a wary respect for each other. The photo op of two powerful women of color meeting and negotiating is a good one for both.
Tea at the DMZ or a Singapore redux? Stay tuned. Just maybe.
Paul Tyson is a retired U.S. diplomat teaching diplomacy and government at New England College.
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