Fate of N. Korea sanctions

By Na Jeong-ju

The United States has been seemingly adamant about keeping sanctions on North Korea until it gives up nuclear weapons. However, there is widespread speculation that the U.S. will have to loosen sanctions at a certain point if it gets tangible results from the ongoing denuclearization dialogue with North Korea.

And this could come sooner than expected.

A key North Korean economic policymaker recently visited Beijing to meet trade officials and businesspeople there.

The visit by Ku Bon-tae, vice minister of external economic affairs, prompted speculation that he was there to ask China to ease sanctions as an envoy of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Before Ku's arrival, North Korean diplomats in Beijing reportedly had contact with the Far Eastern Group, a Chinese conglomerate, to discuss joint business projects.

In fact, China has suggested that it can relieve sanctions on the North as a bargaining chip if it makes sincere efforts toward denuclearization.

Following the historic summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Kim, Beijing immediately responded by mentioning the possibility of easing sanctions on the North.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told reporters if North Korea respects the U.N. resolutions and acts in accordance with them, then the sanctions could be adjusted.

This suggests that China and North Korea share a common understanding that the U.S. can lift the sanctions depending on how the North behaves.

North Korea's state media earlier said Trump had agreed to lift sanctions against the North in addition to providing security guarantees in the summit with Kim. The White House denied the report, but there have been signs that Washington is softening its stance on maintaining the sanctions.

Trump's national security adviser, John Bolton, a hardliner on North Korea, said that if Pyongyang decides to give up its nuclear weapons program and is co-operative, then “we can move very quickly” and they can gain sanctions relief and receive aid from South Korea and Japan.

Then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the U.S. wanted North Korea to take “major” nuclear disarmament steps within the next two years ― before the end of Trump's first term in January 2021.

To date, Kim has halted nuclear and missile tests and has destroyed tunnels at the North's nuclear test site, but it has yet to take concrete steps toward abandoning its weapons programs.

An additional complication is that, citing intelligence sources, the U.S. media recently reported that Pyongyang has increased its production of fuel used for nuclear weapons and maintains secret undeclared production facilities.

The continued output at hidden facilities is likely part of the Kim Jong-un regime's attempt to extract concessions from the Trump administration while holding onto its nuclear capabilities.

The Washington Post reported that U.S. intelligence officials had concluded that North Korea did not intend to fully give up its nuclear arsenal and is considering ways to hide the number of weapons it has.

Looking at these confusing signals from the U.S., Pompeo's upcoming visit to Pyongyang could provide a measurement of how firm the U.S. is about maintaining sanctions against the North ― and more broadly moving the peace process forward.

“I'm not prepared to talk about the details of the discussions that are taking place,” Pompeo told U.S. lawmakers during a hearing. “I think it would be inappropriate and, frankly, counterproductive to achieving the end state that we're hoping to achieve.”