By Oh Young-jin
President Moon Jae-in's "successful" summit with U.S. President Donald Trump ironically shows the tenuous state of the ROK-U.S. alliance.
The highlight of Moon's visit that captivated Trump and other Americans was his emotional speech of appreciation for Americans at the statue to memorize the fighting retreat by U.S. Marines from the Chosin Reservoir in the early stages of the 1950-53 Korean War.
American troops were hounded by the Chinese and retreated through the port of Heungnam from Dec. 15 to 24, 1950. They took enormous risks to take along thousands of Korean refugees in what is also known as "the Christmas gift."
Old American veterans were moved to see President Moon, the son of parents who fled onboard one of U.S. evacuation ships. Hosting politicians felt proud to see a head of state in Moon, who was grateful for the sacrifice of their fathers.
But what lies beneath this show of rapport is the reality of their gaping differences.
The South has grown bigger economically and stronger to the point of becoming totally different from what it was during the conflict more than 60 years ago.
As an adult nation, Korea needs its own space and has its own needs. Moon could be the last leader to go the extra mile in thanking the U.S. for its help. It can't be ruled out that he himself has to reverse his stance before his five-year term ends.
Domestic politics was one motivation for Moon's effusive expression of thankfulness. Moon had prepared for his Washington trip fearing that if anything went wrong in his meeting with Trump, he would take a drubbing from his conservative foes, who have accused the leftist leader of being soft on the North. The foes are kept at bay and his popularity is at an enviable high.
He needed Trump's endorsement for latitude to push for reconciliation with the North in his own way.
Trump is unpredictable talking one day about talking with the North's leader Kim Jong-un and the next day about using force to force him to give up his nuclear weapons and missiles. Meanwhile, the North's capability in delivering a nuclear payload on an intercontinental ballistic missile to the U.S. is growing by leaps and bounds. Trump's capability of finding a solution is questionable.
Moon is a politician of conviction. He wants to change the status quo.
He is a believer in the diplomacy of equidistance to create a role for Korea as a regional balancer of power. Moon inherited it from his friend and mentor, the late President Roh Moo-hyun. His desire of unification surely exceeds his commitment to the alliance. One way or another, his tendencies will come out.
Moon has played his two conflicting roles well.
In Washington, he gained Trump's trust. On the basis of it, he proposed discussing a peace treaty through an inter-Korean summit to replace the current armistice. Moon's proposal was made lackluster because it followed the tension-raising long-range missile test by the North.
But his peace regime proposal is significant and precedent-setting. Seoul and Washington have long opposed it, dismissing it as a ruse by China and the North to drive Americans off the Korean Peninsula. He made his German proposal with the license he won from Trump.
Also in Germany where the G20 summit took place, Moon had his first summit with China's President Xi Jinping. The two failed to resolve the dispute over Seoul's deployment of an anti-missile battery, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD). But not being properly noted is the Moon-Xi understanding to normalize their strained relations where they can. It shows they will not allow their ties to get bogged down by the THAAD issue. Moon knows where power is shifting.
China's growing influence will surely make Moon think whether there is any other way of promoting his goals of ensuring lasting peace. Encouraging him is the decline of U.S. leadership in full display.
In the G20 meeting, the U.S. was relegated to one of a group of leading nations in a demotion from the leader of the free world.
Besides the quixotic Trump, the group included the stable but dictatorial Chinese leader Xi Jinping; the militarily castrated Germany's leader Angela Merkel; the shadow of the Soviet superpower, Russia's enforcer Vladimir Putin; and the tight-handgrip French leader Emmanuel Macron.
Trump is not solely to blame. It has been a long coming. He was elected by voters who were, among other things, dissatisfied with U.S. globalism. Trump is an avatar of the isolationist fever.
So it is not one factor that would make Moon turn his back on the U.S. but a combination of factors that will rise to critical mass with the addition of one "last-straw" factor.
If that determining one factor is THAAD, the future of the ROK-U.S. alliance would not be entirely reassured. China is forcing Korea to choose it over the U.S. in a broader war of hegemony.
Korea has lost $40 billion from boycotts of its products and services by China over the THAAD row. Korea's export driver Hyundai Motor has seen its sales there drop 50 percent. There would be others to get hit. For now, Korea has held on to the U.S. but can it continue to do so, if the U.S. leadership gets shakier? If the moment of truth comes for Korea sooner than expected, it may not be ruled out that Moon has to forget about his Washington pledge of loyalty and make a new pledge of friendship to China.
Oh Young-jin is The Korea Times' chief editorial writer. Contact foolsdie5@ktimes.com and foolsdie@gmail.com.
President Moon Jae-in's "successful" summit with U.S. President Donald Trump ironically shows the tenuous state of the ROK-U.S. alliance.
The highlight of Moon's visit that captivated Trump and other Americans was his emotional speech of appreciation for Americans at the statue to memorize the fighting retreat by U.S. Marines from the Chosin Reservoir in the early stages of the 1950-53 Korean War.
American troops were hounded by the Chinese and retreated through the port of Heungnam from Dec. 15 to 24, 1950. They took enormous risks to take along thousands of Korean refugees in what is also known as "the Christmas gift."
Old American veterans were moved to see President Moon, the son of parents who fled onboard one of U.S. evacuation ships. Hosting politicians felt proud to see a head of state in Moon, who was grateful for the sacrifice of their fathers.
But what lies beneath this show of rapport is the reality of their gaping differences.
The South has grown bigger economically and stronger to the point of becoming totally different from what it was during the conflict more than 60 years ago.
As an adult nation, Korea needs its own space and has its own needs. Moon could be the last leader to go the extra mile in thanking the U.S. for its help. It can't be ruled out that he himself has to reverse his stance before his five-year term ends.
Domestic politics was one motivation for Moon's effusive expression of thankfulness. Moon had prepared for his Washington trip fearing that if anything went wrong in his meeting with Trump, he would take a drubbing from his conservative foes, who have accused the leftist leader of being soft on the North. The foes are kept at bay and his popularity is at an enviable high.
He needed Trump's endorsement for latitude to push for reconciliation with the North in his own way.
Trump is unpredictable talking one day about talking with the North's leader Kim Jong-un and the next day about using force to force him to give up his nuclear weapons and missiles. Meanwhile, the North's capability in delivering a nuclear payload on an intercontinental ballistic missile to the U.S. is growing by leaps and bounds. Trump's capability of finding a solution is questionable.
Moon is a politician of conviction. He wants to change the status quo.
He is a believer in the diplomacy of equidistance to create a role for Korea as a regional balancer of power. Moon inherited it from his friend and mentor, the late President Roh Moo-hyun. His desire of unification surely exceeds his commitment to the alliance. One way or another, his tendencies will come out.
Moon has played his two conflicting roles well.
In Washington, he gained Trump's trust. On the basis of it, he proposed discussing a peace treaty through an inter-Korean summit to replace the current armistice. Moon's proposal was made lackluster because it followed the tension-raising long-range missile test by the North.
But his peace regime proposal is significant and precedent-setting. Seoul and Washington have long opposed it, dismissing it as a ruse by China and the North to drive Americans off the Korean Peninsula. He made his German proposal with the license he won from Trump.
Also in Germany where the G20 summit took place, Moon had his first summit with China's President Xi Jinping. The two failed to resolve the dispute over Seoul's deployment of an anti-missile battery, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD). But not being properly noted is the Moon-Xi understanding to normalize their strained relations where they can. It shows they will not allow their ties to get bogged down by the THAAD issue. Moon knows where power is shifting.
China's growing influence will surely make Moon think whether there is any other way of promoting his goals of ensuring lasting peace. Encouraging him is the decline of U.S. leadership in full display.
In the G20 meeting, the U.S. was relegated to one of a group of leading nations in a demotion from the leader of the free world.
Besides the quixotic Trump, the group included the stable but dictatorial Chinese leader Xi Jinping; the militarily castrated Germany's leader Angela Merkel; the shadow of the Soviet superpower, Russia's enforcer Vladimir Putin; and the tight-handgrip French leader Emmanuel Macron.
Trump is not solely to blame. It has been a long coming. He was elected by voters who were, among other things, dissatisfied with U.S. globalism. Trump is an avatar of the isolationist fever.
So it is not one factor that would make Moon turn his back on the U.S. but a combination of factors that will rise to critical mass with the addition of one "last-straw" factor.
If that determining one factor is THAAD, the future of the ROK-U.S. alliance would not be entirely reassured. China is forcing Korea to choose it over the U.S. in a broader war of hegemony.
Korea has lost $40 billion from boycotts of its products and services by China over the THAAD row. Korea's export driver Hyundai Motor has seen its sales there drop 50 percent. There would be others to get hit. For now, Korea has held on to the U.S. but can it continue to do so, if the U.S. leadership gets shakier? If the moment of truth comes for Korea sooner than expected, it may not be ruled out that Moon has to forget about his Washington pledge of loyalty and make a new pledge of friendship to China.
Oh Young-jin is The Korea Times' chief editorial writer. Contact foolsdie5@ktimes.com and foolsdie@gmail.com.
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