Chung Dong-young in Washington

By Stephen Costello

Economic development remains the key to resolution of ongoing crises surrounding the Korean Peninsula. This was a central insight for Kim Dae Jung and other proponents of realistic and mutually beneficial agreements over the years. When the issues surrounding Pyongyang’s dilemma were reduced to denuclearization without that key ingredient, they have failed, and will continue to do so. When they incorporated it, as they did in the 1994 Agreed Framework and South-North engagement, they have led to progress.

The sad spectacle of the third US administration in a row ― 16 years now, and possibly 20 or more ― rejecting the primary economic interests of all the Northeast Asian countries, confirms the US’s inability to help for the foreseeable future. Confusion and amateurishness among Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and President Donald Trump, were on display again last week as Tillerson visited China and Trump publically undercut him.

Their bumbling, however, should not obscure the fact that there is no plan for denuclearization or any other practical goal on the US side. Not one US official or supporter has offered one. The fuzzy “talks” sometimes referred to are exclusively transactional, imagining what “price” the DPRK would demand in exchange for weapons controls, and ignoring US untrustworthiness.

In this situation other parties are, thankfully, not standing still. One of the most promising was the visit to Washington last week of Chung Dong-young, senior People’s Party leader, former Unification minister and former democratic presidential candidate. I’ve known Chung for over 15 years, and his convictions about the requirements for progress remain smart and compelling. He met Kim Jong Il in Pyongyang and went knee-to-knee with Dick Cheney in Washington. No other Korean leader can claim that kind of experience. We talked for three hours.

Chung carried a short hand-out with him during his US visit. The most striking page contained two simple relationship charts. In one the tensions between North Korea and China, between China and the US, and between South Korea and China formed a destructive mutually-reinforcing cycle. In the other chart the real interests of South Korea, China, North Korea and the US ― both security and economic ― formed a constructive cycle. One could fanaticize that even Trump might grasp the truth of this concept.

And Chung is not alone. Many of the most experienced and knowledgeable Assemblymen, former ministers, diplomats, journalists and officials agree on the emptiness of US ideas and the role Korea needs to play. Among those who continue to remind us of today’s rare opportunities on the Peninsula is Donald J. Johnston, former head of the OECD and Canadian politician. Madam Lee Hee Ho invited him to speak at the KDJ Peace Institute on the anniversary of the breakthrough North-South meetings of June 2000.

Johnston highlighted the contemporary importance and relevance of the Joint Declaration of 15 June. Its principles still form the bedrock for North-South and North-International engagement. He pointed out that in 1998 Kim Dae-jung led Korea’s turnaround from the Asian financial crisis, in which the economy went from a 6% contraction to 10% expansion in 18 months. Since then Korea’s GDP has more than doubled to over 1.5 trillion USD. Johnston suggested that Korean leadership, South and North, will now be required to grab possibilities that begin on the Peninsula but spread out positively to neighboring countries. How to help the North do what has been possible, and potentially transformative, for 17 years?

Johnston has proposed an intensive and honest economic survey of the DPRK, to support its own roadmap to development. The idea is both brilliant and timely. It could be done by the OECD. A similar proposal has been sketched out to North Korean representatives for 20 years by World Bank specialists. In any case, he says, “A team acceptable to North Korea and financed by independent foundations could take the lead and seek a mandate from North Korea to undertake such an exercise as soon as possible.” From the DPRK viewpoint, it would be hard to argue with this survey, as it tracks so closely to the expressed and logical hopes and plans they still harbor.

There is no reason why the United Nations could not support and facilitate such a project. UN Secretary-General Gutierres has offered his “good offices” to convene and help link interested parties to peacefully resolve the North Korea issues. And there would be many of those interested parties, beginning with South Korea, China, Russia, Japan, Sweden, Norway and Germany, just as a start. The possibility that the survey could become the rallying point for a new roadmap ― including economic, security and political aspects ― makes it irresistible.

Such a project would conflict with the current “extreme” global economic and political war being led by the Trump group. But it would also illuminate the degree to which that war is primarily a doomed gambit by amateurs and ideologues with fantastical worldviews. Assemblyman Chung’s arguments are a reminder that political and policy debates are still ongoing in Seoul, and that forces largely responsible for the success of President Moon Jae-in’s presidency are not satisfied with his performance.

Senior figures who would support new non-US activism to incorporate economic plans into new comprehensive initiatives include our best thinkers and doers. From William Perry to Robert Gallucci to Jimmy Carter. From Bill Clinton to Madeline Albright to Kofi Annan. Many are working behind the scenes today on Track II meetings. But they need a plan and a leader. It is just possible both are now being prepared.

Stephen Costello is a producer of AsiaEast, a web and broadcast-based policy roundtable focused on security, development and politics in Northeast Asia. He writes from Washington, D.C. He can be reached at scost55@gmail.com.