President Park's 1st two years - and 2015

By Stephen Costello

President Park Geun-hye has asked U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to assist in North-South relations. The South has asked the North for talks this month. And Kim Jong-un has offered in his New Year address to begin work on a summit with the South Korean leader.

Is this smoke, or are we seeing the beginnings of a move toward the rapprochement that began crucially in 1998-2000? Hard to say. Unless the Park team rethinks or re-imagines its role in the whole region — and for the decades ahead — it is hard to believe that strategic and political requirements can be appreciated, much less acted upon.

During her two years in office, President Park’s record has not been insignificant. In foreign policy, she has succeeded in establishing very good relations with her two most important presidential colleagues, Xi Jinping and Barack Obama. Beyond that, she has stood up to the history manipulations of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. She has visited Europe and the U.S. to talk about common action toward North Korea. These relationships are her most important foreign policy achievements to date.

Domestically, she has made little progress in narrowing deep political, social and ideological rifts. Her term — so far — has been as politically and socially polarizing as the term of her predecessor, Lee Myung-bak. She has also had an opposition that is divided, confused about its priorities and lacking strong or wise leadership. Without greater public support, based on an understanding of where policy is going and what its goals are, the President and her team have very little room to move at all. Foreign policy is hostage to domestic politics. Therefore, politics has to change if policy does. That is why so many bet against Park rising to the challenge.

Many observers, including critics, believe President Park is sincere in her desire for peaceful, negotiated rapprochement that could lead to reunification. But this year will be the greatest test of her strategic capability and her political skill. Now that she has set the table she must be the one to start the conversation.

We can say for sure that neither the U.S. nor China can or will start that conversation. In fact, there are those in Beijing and Washington who think they — as the so-called G2 — should decide the timing and pace of any Korean Peninsula diplomacy. If we look at the diplomacy of the past 20 years, however, one thing becomes very clear: North-South relations are “Korean business,” and no other state has the interest or the commitment to lead that diplomacy. If President Park does not lead diplomacy, a future South Korean president will.

What are President Park’s options?

Three issues show seriousness and realism. Secret talks started, military exercises suspended, and balloons halted. Unless the President can address these three small but highly symbolic items first, then the rest of her initiative cannot get started. This is a matter of basic credibility.

Regarding secret talks, the President sounds naive when she insists that she will not engage in secret talks with the DPRK. Diplomats know that secrecy is absolutely necessary for any sensitive diplomacy. Secret talks would be one of the first tools in any new initiative. The public would NOT be shocked.

For three decades, military exercises with its U.S. Forces colleagues have been an easy tool to use to indicate seriousness and sincerity when approaching talks with the DPRK. Suspend them, reduce them or re-position them to the southern coast as a small but important sign that she is serious. Objections from some on the U.S. and Korean sides should be manageable by any organized ROK team.

It is well-known that propaganda, psychological warfare balloons are provocative and destabilizing, and that the ROK government can stop them at any time. They are a substitute for government action. The North knows this. Unless they are stopped, there is no reason for observers to believe President Park is committed to honest dialogue.

One issue shows intent and commitment. There is no way to ignore the need for a strategic re-think about both South-North relations and the South’s role in the region. The decade of band-wagoning with its U.S. counterpart to isolate and defeat the North has been an expensive waste of time. Now it is Korean development, regional transportation, energy and diplomacy that are at the top of the list that states must attend to. Denuclearization, an end to the Korean War, and peace-building will have to occur alongside any progress on those issues. And beginning that, particularly with a semi-open summit, will take great courage and strategic alacrity.

Does President Park have it? Perhaps. At the President Park Chung-hee museum and library in Seoul, a young woman can be seen clearly peering over the shoulder of her father as large-scale infrastructure developments are planned and implemented. These were the 1960s and 1970s. Korea has seen amazing things since then, and a clear-eyed assessment of the current environment would seem to argue for action. We will actually see in 2015. World Bank President Jim Yong Kim and Ban stand ready to assist. It would be unforgivable to let Ban and Kim retire without being used by the Korean President to finesse the next sincere South-North discussions. Other leaders have not yet met Kim Jong-un. Should Ms. Park be the first?

Stephen Costello is producer of AsiaEast, a Web and broadcast-based policy roundtable focused on security, development and politics in Northeast Asia. He previously directed the Korea program at the Atlantic Council of the U.S. He writes from Washington, D.C. He can be contacted at cosetllos@asiaeast.org.