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Tue, January 31, 2023 | 06:09
Economy
IMF estimates restructuring cost at W31 tril.
IMF "韓 조선·해운 기업부채구조조정비용 31조원…만회에 10년"
Posted : 2016-10-23 16:41
Updated : 2016-10-23 17:30
Yoon Ja-young
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By Yoon Ja-young

The cost to restructure debt laden shipping and shipbuilding industries here will be as much as 31 trillion won ($27 billion), according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In a report, "Benefits and Costs of Corporate Debt Restructuring: An Estimation for Korea," the IMF said it will take about 10 years to recoup the costs, with the restructured industries contributing to economic growth by restarting investment and hiring new employees.

"After years of rapid growth, many Korean export-oriented industries face headwinds from a global economic slowdown. Shipping and shipbuilding are especially affected," the IMF said. "Steel and petrochemicals may become distressed if the global slowdown deepens. The technology intensive industries, such as automobiles and electronics, are exposed to intensifying international competition."

It said corporate debt vulnerabilities were high, and the government was taking steps to "agree, and then swiftly implement, plans for the operational and financial restructuring of vulnerable firms."

Korea is an instructive case to study benefits and costs of corporate debt restructuring, it noted.

It assessed the benefits and costs of debt restructuring of firms that had an interest coverage ratio (ICR) below 1 for three consecutive years.

"With the slowdown of global trade, the growth rate of Korean corporate earnings, particularly in export-oriented manufacturing and shipping, has been declining and has recently turned the estimated cost of corporate restructuring in the shipping and shipbuilding industries negative. Our method gives that cost at about 31 trillion won in the adjusted baseline," the IMF said.

This compares with the 12 trillion won support package for the state-owned Korea Development Bank (KDB) and Export-Import Bank of Korea (KEXIM) and about 10 trillion won in internal loss-absorption capacity available in those banks.

The report points out that moving a firm from an ICR below 1 to above it through restructuring will increase its investment and its hiring of employees annually.

It said the cost will be compensated for by an increase in future GDP growth thanks to higher corporate investment and rises in employment in the subsequent years.

"The key qualitative result is that corporate debt restructurings pay off in the medium term: their economic cost is recouped over about 10 years," the report said.

However, the South Korean government has already injected nearly 40 trillion won into the shipbuilding and shipping companies in the past.

According to Financial Supervisory Service data submitted to Rep. Chae Yi-bai of the minor opposition People's Party, their main creditor banks have injected 20.8 trillion won into 26 troubled shipbuilding and shipping companies since 2008 for restructuring.

When combined with 17.9 trillion won they had provided previously, they have injected a total 38.7 trillion won so far. However, they have recovered only 11 trillion won of this.

The lawmaker warned that restructuring without a vision for the industry will only worsen the problem.

"Most financial support came from state-run banks during the restructuring of shipbuilding and shipping companies, and misjudgments by policymakers only aggravated the problem," Rep. Chae said.

He said that the government is simply applying patches to the problem.


IMF "韓 조선·해운 기업부채구조조정비용 31조원…만회에 10년"

한국 조선·해운업의 기업부채 구조조정 비용이 31조원에 이를 것이라고 국제통화기금(IMF)이 추산했다.

한국의 기업부채 구조조정 시 채권자 손실이 국내총생산(GDP)의 5.5∼7.5%에 달하고, 고용은 0.4∼0.9% 영향을 받을 것이라는 가정에 따른 추산이다.

기업부채 구조조정을 거치면 기업의 투자가 늘어나 경제성장률을 끌어올리고, 고용도 늘어나기 때문에 이에 따른 비용은 10년가량이 지나면 만회될 수 있다고 IMF는 내다봤다.

23일 IMF가 최근 내놓은 '기업부채 구조조정의 혜택과 비용: 한국을 위한 추정' 조사보고서에 따르면 2014년 기준 3년 연속으로 이자보상배율이 1 이하인 한국 기업을 대상으로 기업부채 구조조정의 혜택과 비용을 추산한 결과, 이같이 집계됐다.

IMF는 이들 기업의 이익이 2014년 기준 전년보다 10% 떨어진다고 가정했을 때 조선업을 포함한 제조업과 해운업, 건설업 등에서 위험에 처하는 부채가 GDP의 12∼14%, 위험에 처하는 일자리는 1.9∼2.1%에 이를 것으로 추산했다.

여기에 대부분의 산업에 부도시 손실률을 40%, 취약산업은 50%로 가정했을 때 기업부채 구조조정 시 채권자 손실은 GDP의 5.5∼7.5%, 고용영향은 0.4∼0.9%에 이를 것으로 전망했다.

과다한 기업부채는 글로벌 금융위기와 이에 따른 재정위기 이후 지속한 글로벌 저성장에 따른 결과로, 기업의 투자와 고용을 저하해 경제활력을 떨어뜨린다.

유효성 검증을 위해 이런 추산을 바탕으로 조선·해운 구조조정의 비용을 계산한 결과, 31조원에 달하는 것으로 나타났다고 IMF는 밝혔다.

이는 한국산업은행과 수출입은행에 지원패키지 12조원과 이들 은행의 내부 손실 흡수 가능액 10조원, 일부 시중은행이나 다른 채권자 부담액까지 고려하면 크게 봐서 실제와 일치한다는 설명이다.

한편, 조선업 구조조정에서 고용에 영향을 받는 인력의 규모는 1만 명으로 추산된다고 IMF는 덧붙였다. 일부에서 2만 명에 달할 것으로 추산한 것과는 대조적이다.

기업 부채구조조정은 이후 한국의 GDP 성장률을 연 0.4∼0.9%포인트 끌어올리고, 고용을 0.05∼0.1% 늘리는 효과를 낼 것으로 추산됐다.

이에 따라 앞서 들어간 기업부채 구조조정에 따른 일회성 비용은 10년이면 만회가 가능하다는 설명이다.

3년 연속 이자보상배율이 1% 이하였던 기업이 1% 이상으로 전환될 경우 투자가 3.1%포인트, 연간 고용은 2.3%포인트 늘어나는 효과가 있다는 게 보고서의 설명이다.

IMF는 보고서에서 '핵심 결론은 기업부채 구조조정은 중기적으로는 성과가 난다는 것'이라며 '경제적 비용은 10년간에 걸쳐 만회될 수 있다'고 설명했다.

한편, 국제결제은행(BIS)에 따르면 한국의 지난 1분기 기준 GDP 대비 비금융 기업부채 규모는 105.9%로 19개 신흥국 중 홍콩(211.1%), 중국(169.1%)에 이어 3위 수준이었다.

고속성장 끝에 글로벌 경제 성장 둔화에 직면한 수출 중심의 한국 경제는 부채 구조조정에 따른 혜택과 비용을 추산하기에 유익한 국가라고 IMF는 설명했다.

한국의 산업 중 조선·해운업이 특히 영향을 받고 있고, 글로벌 경제 둔화가 심화한다면 철강과 화학업도 타격을 받을 것이라는 전망이다. 자동차나 전자 등 기술집약적 산업은 글로벌 경쟁 격화에 직면해 있고, 한국 기업부채의 취약성은 높은 것으로 분석됐다. (연합뉴스)
Emailyjy@ktimes.com Article ListMore articles by this reporter
 
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