Rival parties spin record early voter turnout to their advantage

A citizen watches security camera video footage showing early voting ballot boxes in front of Seoul Election Commission, Saturday, when the early voting for the April 10 general elections ended with a 31.28 percent turnout, the record high for general elections. Yonhap

Rival parties are putting their own spin on the record-high voter turnout for early voting in the April 10 general elections, suggesting that the attendance mirrors the public's discontent with the opposing political party.

Analysts say it is too early to conclude if the high turnout will deliver a significant blow to the Yoon Suk Yeol administration, as asserted by the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), or if it reflects public dissatisfaction with corrupt opposition candidates, as claimed by the ruling People Power Party (PPP).

According to the National Election Commission (NEC), the turnout for early voting from Friday to Saturday stood at 31.28 percent, as 13.85 million out of 44.28 million eligible voters cast their ballots before the voting day. This marked the highest turnout for a general election since the adoption of early voting in 2016, surpassing the 12.19 percent attendance recorded at the time.

This year's voter tunout was 4.59 percentage points higher than the previous general elections. The 2020 general elections saw a voter turnout of 26.69 percent. In contrast, voter turnout for the 2022 presidential election reached 36.93 percent.

People Power Party interim leader Han Dong-hoon, right, casts his ballot at an early voting polling station in Seodaemun District, Seoul, Friday. Joint Press Corps

PPP spokesperson Rep. Park Jeong-ha said Sunday the turnout shows that voters “cast their precious ballots for the PPP, which represents the future and hope of Korea, in a showdown against forces that have resorted to abusive language, unethical tactics, tricks and crimes.”

A day earlier, the party’s interim leader Han Dong-hoon also said while out and about campaigning that “it will be the first election in which we can gain momentum in early voting.”

“The turnout is high because voters headed to polling stations to show how angry they are because of the criminals,” Han said, referring to the main opposition DPK Chairman Lee Jae-myung who is standing trial for a number of corruption allegations.

The DPK also hailed the high early voter turnout, interpreting it in its favor.

“The record-high early voter turnout confirmed the angry sentiment against the Yoon Suk Yeol administration," DPK spokesperson Rep. Kang Sun-woo said during a press briefing, Saturday. “The voters unequivocally sent a message to the ineffective and authoritarian Yoon administration, affirming who holds the sovereign power in this nation.”

The DPK chairman also said, “It is time to hold (the Yoon administration) accountable for ruining our lives and using taxpayers’ money against the people.”

Democratic Party of Korea Chairman Lee Jae-myung casts his ballot at an early voting polling station in Daejeon, Friday. Joint Press Corps

While each party is interpreting the situation as being to their advantage, outcomes in previous elections show it remains uncertain which side will benefit from the record-high early voter turnout.

In previous general elections, higher turnouts in early voting resulted in the liberal side having a majority in the 300-seat National Assembly, as early voting encouraged relatively younger people to cast ballots and enjoy the election day as a holiday.

The turnout by region is also prompting the DPK to cast a rosy picture regarding its chances. The DPK’s conventional strongholds of South and North Jeolla provinces showed the highest turnouts with 41.19 percent and 38.46 percent, followed by Gwangju at 38 percent.

On the other hand, Daegu, a conservative stronghold, showed the lowest turnout with just 25.6 percent, and the surrounding South and North Gyeongsang provinces posted 30.71 percent and 30.75 percent respectively.

Despite the past results, however, the PPP is also interpreting the situation positively, stating that the recent electoral landscape is showing signs of change.

During the 2022 presidential election, the country recorded the highest early voter turnout of 36.9 percent, electing the conservative PPP candidate, Yoon, as president.

At that time, the early voter turnout among individuals in their 60s stood at 45.5 percent, the highest among all age groups. This trend highlights the increasing prevalence of early voting among older adults. They have long been a strong support base for the conservatives, and those aged 60 or over account for 31.89 percent of total eligible voters in the upcoming elections.

With the NEC not revealing the turnout of Friday-Saturday's early voting by age group, it remains uncertain whether the latest results are advantageous for the DPK or the PPP.

“One of the reasons why the NEC does not reveal the early voting turnout by age is because it clearly shows which side is leading before the Election Day,” political commentator Park Sang-byeong said.

“To clearly compare the two sides, you have to compare the early voter turnout for those aged over 60, which is the conservative base, and those aged between 30 and 50. If those aged over 60 showed overwhelming turnout in early voting, it would be advantageous for the PPP, but the general tendency is that the early voting is still advantageous for the DPK.”