Kim Jong-un's daughter on track to assume power as aunt fades from spotlight: analysts

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspects a poultry farm with his daughter, Ju-ae, at Hwangju County, some 45 kilometers south of Pyongyang, Sunday, in this photo released Monday by North Korea's state media. Yonhap

When North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s daughter, known as Ju-ae, made her first public appearance in late 2022, few analysts saw her as his successor, with some suggesting that his sister, Kim Yo-jong, was more likely to take the throne if something happens to his ability to rule.

But about a year later, many experts, including top-level agents at South Korea's national spy agency, think that Ju-ae is on track to assume the top spot. Meanwhile, the North Korean leader's ambitious sister appears to have been sidelined from the media spotlight, according to analysts, Monday.

A further basis for such claims was provided by Rodong Sinmun, North Korea’s official newspaper, which used honorifics exclusively for Ju-ae and her father in the coverage of their inspection of a poultry farm in Hwangju County, some 45 kilometers south of the North's capital Pyongyang. Monday’s issue of the newspaper, on the other hand, plainly described other high-ranking officials who followed them, including Yo-jong and Premier Kim Tok-hun, without using the same honorifics.

It was the third time that the daily provided coverage of the leader accompanied by his daughter this year, highlighting her special role in North Korean politics.

Speaking to The Korea Times, experts said the way North Korean media has covered the two women over the past year clearly indicates that Ju-ae will likely become the next leader and that Kim Yo-jong’s role is shrinking.

This photo released on Feb. 18 by North Korea's state media shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and his daughter, Ju-ae, watching sports events at a venue in Pyongyang, North Korea. Kim Yo-jong, his sister, is seen sitting in the back row. Yonhap

“Based on the media coverage over the past year, it now seems certain to me that Kim Ju-ae is on track to assume power. I would say the chances are 70 percent or higher,” Ko Young-hwan, a former North Korean diplomat, said. “Meanwhile, for some reason, Kim Yo-jong appears to have distanced herself from the political spotlight and the helm of power. It may be her own will … As a person who knows how Jang Song-thaek (the current leader’s uncle) was killed, she perhaps thinks that it would be safer to keep some distance from the spotlight.”

Unlike Yo-jong, the role of Ju-ae is expected to expand this year to the economy and other areas, according to Cheong Seong-chang, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute, a think tank.

“She was reported by North Korea’s state media on 24 occasions since November 2022. Among them, 21 were military-related activities. Two of her three public appearances so far this year were made during non-military events, as the media constantly highlights her superior position over other officials,” he said. “All this suggests that her role will continue to expand in 2024.”

Cheong said it is possible that she may have already been appointed as first secretary ― the No. 2 post created at a key Workers' Party meeting in 2021. The creation of the post had been kept a secret for more than five months. It is still unclear who holds that position.

After Kim Jong-un rose to power following the death of his father Kim Jong-il, his sister played a key role in his government. Amid speculation about Kim's declining health, various experts, think tanks, and government research centers, including the National Assembly Research Service, seriously considered the possibility of Yo-jong's succession. This occurred before her niece's political ascent.

In both scenarios, some analysts find it unrealistic to consider the possibility of a woman becoming the next leader of North Korea, which is dominated by a patriarchal system. But given the expanded roles of women in the Kim regime during his reign, represented by his daughter, his sister, and Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui among others, such a scenario is no longer improbable, Cheong noted.