Former PM's new third party to shake up general elections

Former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon arrives to give a lecture at a university in northeastern Seoul's Dongdaemun District, Monday. Yonhap

With only four months left ahead of the parliamentary elections, the emergence of new third parties is suggesting that the elections may not be a two-way race between Korea's two major parties — the ruling People Power Party (PPP) and the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK).

In particular, the envisaged new party by former DPK leader Lee Nak-yon is viewed as a potential game-changer for the upcoming elections, according to political observers, Thursday.

Lee, who previously served as prime minister under the Moon Jae-in administration, has been voicing criticism against the current DPK leader, Rep. Lee Jae-myung, in recent weeks, blaming him for running the party by favoring only his loyalists while sidelining others.

In an interview with local broadcaster SBS, Wednesday, Lee announced his plan to establish a new political party of his own, saying, "I want to offer hope, although it may be small, to people in despair."

He revealed that working-level preparations are underway, with the party expected to be launched early next year.

Kim Hyung-joon, a professor at Pai Chai University and former president of the Korean Association of Electoral Studies, viewed that Lee's new party would have the potential to significantly impact the results of the parliamentary elections.

The professor highlighted three key factors for the success of an alternative party: leadership by a prominent political figure, a strong regional support base and a political legacy.

"Lee's new party meets all these criteria," Kim said.

"Lee will shape his party as upholding the legacies of former presidents Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun. Also, if he manages to gather former President Moon's close aides, such as former prime ministers Chung Se-kyun and Kim Boo-kyum, his team could have a substantial effect on changing the election landscape."

However, the professor said Lee's new party will split the votes of liberals, posing challenges to the liberal bloc in forming a majority-holding party at the new National Assembly.

"But it's not the first time we've seen party fragmentation just months ahead of the general elections. We should see how it goes," he added.

Shin Yul, a professor of political science at Myongji University, said, "Recent polls show that the DPK, under Lee Jae-myung's leadership, is not enjoying as much support in its homeground Honam region (Gwangju and the Jeolla provinces), which means people are looking for an alternative party. Lee Nak-yon's new party can take advantage of this."

Rep. Kim Gi-hyeon, left, of the ruling People Power Party (PPP), poses with then-party leader Lee Jun-seok during a party meeting at the National Assembly in Seoul, May 6, 2022. Yonhap

Lee Jun-seok, the disgraced former PPP chairman, is also another high-profile figure seeking to create a new party. The outspoken politician, who was removed from his chairman post following allegations related to a sexual bribery scandal, has been a vocal critic of President Yoon Suk Yeol, butting heads with the party's mainstream.

In the lead-up to the general elections, the young politician has been building up political momentum to set up a breakaway party. In multiple interviews, he asserted that he will proceed with this plan unless there is a "change in the attitude" of the PPP and the president.

Professor Kim of Pai Chai University said Lee's new entity, if launched, is unlikely to be a decisive factor in the parliamentary elections.

"Unlike (former Prime Minister) Lee, Lee Jun-seok lacks a strong regional support base. He does not have a deep connection with the conservative stronghold Yeongnam region (the southeastern Gyeongsang provinces)," he said.

Some critics view that recent developments within the PPP, such as Chairman Rep. Kim Gi-hyeon's abrupt resignation on Wednesday and party heavyweight Rep. Chang Je-won's Tuesday announcement of giving up his bid for reelection, may weaken the momentum for Lee to create a party of his own.

However, political commentator Rhee Jong-hoon said whether Lee would eventually part ways with the PPP depends on who will head the emergency leadership committee system of the conservative party.

Following Kim's resignation, the PPP said Thursday it will transition into an emergency steering system and swiftly appoint a leader — who may not be a politician — for smooth preparations for the general elections.

"If the party picks a close aide of President Yoon for the leadership position, for instance Justice Minister Han Dong-hoon, Lee is likely to leave the party to set up his own," Rhee said.