Blinken's Seoul visit to focus mainly on NK-Russia cooperation

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken waves after arriving at Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, Wednesday. Yonhap

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's trip to Seoul, which will include meetings with President Yoon Suk Yeol, Director of National Security Cho Tae-yong and Foreign Minister Park Jin, is expected to focus on the fast-changing diplomatic and security dynamics in Northeast Asia, including North Korea's deepening military ties with Russia.

After attending a Group of Seven (G7) Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Tokyo, Wednesday, Blinken arrived in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, for a two-day stay. It is his first visit to South Korea since Yoon took office in May last year.

The top item on the agenda is expected to be responses to the growing military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, as their purported arms trade and military technology transfer are posing serious threats to the national interests of South Korea and the U.S.

During the ministerial meeting in Tokyo, Blinken and other participating ministers "strongly condemned North Korea's repeated ballistic missile launches, as well as arms transfers from North Korea to Russia, which directly violate relevant U.N. Security Council (UNSC) resolutions," according to Japan's foreign ministry.

In a teleconference on Nov. 2, U.S. Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink said discussions in Korea will "focus on addressing the security implications of DPRK-Russia military cooperation, extended deterrence, and shared economic growth," referring to the North by its official name of Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

Seoul and Washington suspect that Pyongyang provided more than 1 million artillery shells to Moscow through more than 10 separate shipments. They also believe that chances are high for Russia to transfer nuclear and ballistic missile technologies to the North in return.

The South Korean military also suspects North Korea might conduct a third launch of what it calls a military spy satellite in the near future and Seoul's Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho said that the North appears to have received Russian technologies to make that spacecraft.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, front row second from left, and North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un, front row second from right, examine a rocket assembly hangar during their meeting at the Vostochny cosmodrome outside the city of Tsiolkovsky, Russia, Sept. 13. AP-Yonhap

Seoul and Washington view the Pyongyang-Moscow military cooperation as violations of UNSC resolutions and Blinken's talks with his South Korean counterparts could involve ideas on how the allies can persuade China, a permanent member of the security council, to play a role in the issue.

The South Korean leader and U.S. President Joe Biden are scheduled to participate in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in San Francisco next week. Chinese President Xi Jinping is anticipated to attend the event and both Seoul and Washington are eyeing summits with him, while there are growing expectations that the issue of Pyongyang-Moscow military cooperation could be on the table.

Against this backdrop, Blinken's talks are projected to focus on how Seoul and Washington can coordinate their policies on Beijing before the APEC Summit.

South Korea is now seeking to manage its relations with China to prevent Beijing from interpreting Seoul's strengthened ties with Washington and Tokyo as a risk.

In line with this, Yoon is making efforts to hold a trilateral summit between the leaders of South Korea, Japan and China in Seoul in the near future. In the run-up to the trilateral summit, the foreign ministers of the three countries will gather in Busan later this month.

The U.S. is also focusing on preventing its competition with China from escalating into a major conflict by pursuing a "small-yard, high-fence" strategy, which is aimed at protecting selected strategic assets without losing wider benefits coming from trade with important economic partners.

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas could also be a subject of the talks during Blinken's visit.

Since the U.S.' diplomatic capabilities are stretched to two wars at the same time, it is facing difficulties in managing many problems, thus asking its key allies, such as NATO members in Europe and South Korea and Japan in Asia, to play greater roles.

So far, Seoul has extended humanitraian aid and non-lethal military support to Ukraine. However, the South Korean government has yet to express a clear stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict, while it has done so on the Ukraine war. The South Korean foreign minister has said that South Korea's official stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict is that Seoul endorses the two-state solution.

"We’ve been incredibly gratified by the range of steps that Seoul has taken and the really unprecedented assistance that [South] Korea has provided, again, to assist our friends in Ukraine and to counter this threat that Russia’s invasion poses to the entire rules-based international order," Kritenbrink said.

"And I’m confident that such pressing global matters will feature prominently on Secretary Blinken’s agenda while he’s in Seoul."