Main opposition bags landslide win in Gangseo District by-election

Jin Gyo-hoon, center, main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) candidate for Gangseo District mayor, speaks after his victory was declared at his campaign office in western Seoul, Wednesday. At right is DPK floor leader Rep. Hong Ihk-pyo. Joint press corps

Main opposition Democratic Party of Korea candidate (DPK) Jin Gyo-hoon clinched a landslide victory in a by-election to elect the mayor of Gangseo District in western Seoul, Thursday, which was widely seen as a bellwether of the 2024 general elections.

The election drew considerable attention, as it was the last chance to gauge public sentiment before the general elections slated for April 10. The rival parties sent seasoned politicians to support the candidates, considering the election’s impact in the six-month race for seats in the National Assembly, and Wednesday’s result will likely boost the DPK’s crusade against the Yoon Suk Yeol administration and the ruling People Power Party (PPP).

According to the National Election Commission, Jin gained 56.52 percent of the votes, outpacing PPP candidate Kim Tae-woo with 39.37 percent.

Jin will immediately begin the remaining term of approximately three years as the district mayor.

“I believe this election was the victory of common sense, the victory of principles and the victory of the residents of Gangseo District,” Jin said. “Thank you for choosing me for the future and progress of Gangseo.”

DPK Chairman Rep. Lee Jae-myung wrote on Facebook that the by-election result is "a great victory of the people and a grave judgement against (the Yoon administration's) failures in state affairs."

"I don't think this is a victory of the DPK," he said. "It is an order given by the public telling politicians to get their act together and restore the public's livelihood."

The turnout for the election was tallied at 48.7 percent, meaning 243,658 out of 500,603 eligible voters cast their ballots. Also, the by-election drew an early voter turnout of 22.64 percent, which was the highest for any local and by-election in Korea.

National Election Commission officials count ballots for the Gangseo District mayor by-election at a sports center in the western district of Seoul, Wednesday. Yonhap

Although it was a relatively small election, the rival parties went all out to support their candidates, because the race was viewed as a proxy war between President Yoon Suk Yeol and DPK Chairman Lee Jae-myung.

Kim, the ruling party candidate, was the district mayor until May 18, when the Supreme Court confirmed a suspended prison term on charges of leaking official secrets. He was pardoned and reinstated by the president on Aug. 15, and the PPP set him up as the party’s candidate even breaking its own charter.

The DPK selected Jin, a former police officer, as part of its strategy to counter the PPP, with Lee, the main opposition party chairman, personally granting him the document of candidacy. By doing so, the party sought to appeal to growing public concerns over violent crimes, while comparing Jin with the PPP candidate, who caused the by-election to take place through his conviction.

Gangseo District has been a DPK stronghold. Although the PPP candidate claimed the district mayor position in the previous local election by a narrow margin, all three lawmakers from the district are DPK members. When the lawmakers were elected in 2020, the average margin of their victory was 18 percent.

Given this history, the main opposition party has sought a win by a double-digit gap. As the result showed that the DPK is in a comfortable lead in the district, the chairman’s grip over the party is expected to grow stronger amid infighting between the pro-Lee and anti-Lee factions within its ranks.

The election result will also help the DPK dismiss criticism that the party is losing support due to the prosecution’s investigation into alleged illegalities involving the chairman, and assert that risks related to Lee have little to do with the main opposition party’s campaign for the general elections.

“The scenario is pretty simple for the DPK -- the anti-Lee faction of the party will likely see its presence diminish,” said Eom Gyeong-yeong, director of the private political think tank Zeitgeist Institute. “In doing so, many of the anti-Lee faction members may not be recommended as the party’s candidates in the general elections, and the pro-Lee faction’s voice will grow stronger.”

But DPK Rep. Lee Won-wook, who is categorized as an anti-Lee faction member, said during a radio interview with broadcaster BBS, Wednesday, that the party’s victory in the by-election “would be nothing more than a penicillin shot, making the DPK remain within the current system without seeking fundamental changes.”

Ruling People Power Party candidate for Gangseo District mayor Kim Tae-woo bows after accepting his election defeat at his campaign camp in the district, Seoul, Wednesday. Yonhap

On the other hand, the PPP will likely engage in a blame game over the election result, as the wide margin makes it hard for the party to claim “a well-fought battle in a difficult constituency.” This can stir up doubts over the ability of the current leadership to guide the party to victory in the general election next year.

Recently, some PPP members have claimed that the party is losing its clout in Seoul and surrounding Gyeonggi Province, with Rep. Yoon Sang-hyun saying at a seminar in August that it should “be aware that there is a crisis.”

Since the president pardoned and reinstated the mayoral candidate, Yoon could be blamed for the defeat.

However, most of the criticism is expected to point to PPP Chairman Rep. Kim Gi-hyeon and its Supreme Council members, because the leadership broke the party’s own charter that the central committee “may not recommend a candidate” in the event of a by-election occurring due to illegalities involving an elected public official from its own ranks.

“Anxiety will grow within PPP members outside the Assembly and they will likely voice their opinions for the party’s transition into an emergency interim leadership,” said Shin Yul, a political science professor at Myongji University. “And this will result in President Yoon to make a decision on how to shape the party’s leadership.”

Eom also noted that the margin will be “a red light” for the PPP’s general election campaigns. He said debates will flare up over the party’s leadership, but it may rather choose to organize its election committee way before the general election and have gender equality minister nominee Kim Haeng, who has generated controversies during her confirmation hearing, to resign to overcome criticism targeting the party.