Allies eye talks to form trilateral security forum at G7 meeting

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida waves before leaving South Korea at Seoul Air Base in Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province, Monday. Yonhap

Including Japan in S. Korea-US NCG elusive: expert

By Nam Hyun-woo

The leaders of South Korea and Japan have opened up the possibility of forming a stronger trilateral security apparatus between Seoul, Tokyo and Washington during their next three-way meeting, prompting speculation that the three countries will likely engage in relevant talks later this month in Hiroshima, where a Group of Seven summit is scheduled to take place from May 19 to 21.

During a joint press conference after the South Korea-Japan summit in Seoul, Sunday, President Yoon Suk Yeol said, "The Washington Declaration is an agreement reached between [South] Korea and the United States, but it does not rule out Japan from participating in the forum."

The Washington Declaration is a document that was agreed upon by Yoon and U.S. President Joe Biden last month, in which the two countries would set up a new Seoul-Washington Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) to give South Korea more insight into U.S. nuclear planning and execution to deter North Korea's nuclear and missile threats.

"The Washington Declaration is not completed yet and its content should be filled in through continued discussions in the process of joint planning and execution. Once this gets on the right track and Japan is ready for this in terms of its relations with the U.S., I'm sure that we can cooperate at any time," Yoon added.

President Yoon Suk Yeol speaks during a joint press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the presidential office in Yongsan District, Seoul, Sunday. Yonhap

His remarks are interpreted as Korea's approval of Japan joining the Seoul-Washington NCG, meaning the respective extended deterrence consultative body of Seoul-Washington and Tokyo-Washington could be merged, or a new body involving all three countries could be established.

While Seoul and Washington decided to have the NCG serve as the top consultative body to discuss extended U.S. deterrence against Pyongyang's nuclear threats, Japan and the U.S. have been operating the Extended Deterrence Dialogue (EDD) since 2010. However, Japan's presence in the EDD is known to be weaker than the level of joint planning.

If Japan joins the Seoul-Washington NCG, the competitive dynamics in Northeast Asia will intensify, as South Korea, Japan and the U.S. strengthen their security cooperation based on nuclear planning and extended deterrence against three nuclear states ― North Korea, Russia and China.

However, experts said such prospects remain elusive, although the three allies could begin talks to form a new consultative body at the trilateral summit in Hiroshima.

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"It was basically a question to the president, so it must have been difficult for Yoon to rule out Japan's participation in the NCG in the presence of the prime minister," said Kim Yeoul-soo, chief security strategy officer at the Korea Institute of Military Affairs.

"The president set up two conditions for Japan to join the Seoul-Washington NCG. The first is that South Korea and the U.S. should finish detailing what kind of roles that they will serve in the NCG and the second is that Japan and the U.S. should finish their own talks."

Kim said Japan also has to consider its own public sentiment on whether the country should be involved in nuclear planning, while the U.S. also has to calculate the benefits of providing nuclear-based extended deterrence to Tokyo.

"There is one big difference between South Korea and Japan in setting their target of extended deterrence," the analyst said. "The Seoul-Washington NCG sees North Korea's nuclear threats as its main challenge, while the EDD between Tokyo and Washington does not set a primary target. From Japan's perspective, China's assertion could be a bigger risk than North Korea's threats."

President Yoon Suk Yeol, U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida hold a three-way summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia in this Nov. 13, 2022 photo. Yonhap

Kim said chances are rather high for the three countries to come up with "a proper name for the consultative apparatus" as their efforts continue to share real-time data on North Korea's missiles.

Currently, the three countries' data or information sharing relies on the Trilateral Information Sharing Arrangement (TISA) between them and the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) between Seoul and Tokyo.

The TISA was signed in 2014 as a framework where the three countries voluntarily share classified information only through the U.S. Under the GSOMIA, South Korea and Japan share data only when there is a request.

To overcome this, Yoon, Kishida and Biden agreed last November to share North Korean missile warning data in real time to improve each country's ability to detect and assess the threat posed by incoming missiles.

Against this backdrop, multiple government officials said the focus of the trilateral meeting in Hiroshima will be on "strengthening the function of detecting North Korean missile and nuclear threats."

During Sunday's summit, Yoon confirmed that "there is progress in discussions between related authorities of each country" and promised "continued security cooperation between the three countries in the future."

Kishida also noted that he and Yoon had the same opinion on "the importance of improving deterrence and response capabilities" against North Korea's provocations "through Japan-U.S. alliance, South Korea-U.S. alliance and Japan-South Korea-U.S. security cooperation," and welcomed the progress in the real-time sharing of data on North Korea's threat.