Putin may regret forging closer ties with Kim: experts

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un examine a launch pad during their meeting at the Vostochny cosmodrome outside the city of Tsiolkovsky in Russia's Amur region, Sept. 13. AP-Yonhap

China concerned about losing influence on N. Korea

By Lee Hyo-jin

Closer relations between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin is not a win-win partnership, but "Kim's win," according to analysts, who viewed that the Russian leader may later regret his decision to forge closer ties with Pyongyang.

While North Korea has a lot to gain from Russia such as technological support in advancing its weapons and food supply, the same cannot be said for Moscow as the summit has only highlighted Putin's deepening international isolation.

According to the North's state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), Tuesday, Kim returned home on Monday after completing his "official goodwill" visit to Russia which has "opened a new chapter" in bilateral ties. After entering Russia on Sept. 12, Kim met with Putin and visited key military sites, sparking concerns from the outside world that the two sides may strike a major weapons agreement.

"It was a successful trip for Kim," Patrick Cronin, the chair for Asia-Pacific Security at the Hudson Institute, told The Korea Times.

"Although we don't know the details of what Putin has promised, it's clear that Russia is willing to provide the space program modernization that Kim wants. And undoubtedly, there are other benefits that we'll learn about in the future weeks and months," he said.

Victor Cha, the Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), gave a similar assessment. "Kim gained what he wanted. Probably more than what he wanted actually, because he stayed longer," he said.

The North Korean leader's latest visit to the Russian Far East was his longest overseas trip since taking power in 2011. Including the travel time on the railways, Kim spent a total of eight days on his trip to Russia.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un waves as he boards his private train bound for Pyongyang from Primorsky-1 railway station in Artyom, 40 kilometers northeast of Vladivostok, Sunday. Reuters-Yonhap

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Russia, on the other hand, has little to gain from closer relations with North Korea, Cha said. He viewed that Putin will face consequences if it receives ammunition from Pyongyang for its war in Ukraine.

"Russia may regret it, because it could affect South Korea's decision about Ukraine," he said. "If North Korea is selling ammunition to Russia, then Russia can't say anything if South Korea sells ammunition to Ukraine. South Korean ammunition is much better than North Korean ones."

Seoul has maintained its stance of not providing lethal arms to Kyiv, but recent speculation that Pyongyang may provide ― or has already been providing ― weapons to Moscow may prompt the South Korean government to reconsider its current policy.

Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor of international relations at King's College London, described the Kim-Putin summit as the latest indication of the Russian leader's narrowing international horizons.

In August, Putin did not attend an annual summit of BRICS nations in South Africa, a move widely speculated to be due to an indictment issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) against him over the mass abduction of Ukrainian children. Similar reasons seemed to have led Putin to skip the recent G20 summit held in India earlier this month.

"The perception about Putin has become worse after the summit. Instead of being at meetings with other global leaders, he has reached out to someone like Kim Jong-un, one of the most isolated people in the world," Pacheco Pardo said.

Also notable is the fact that North Korea may have had the upper hand in negotiations with Russia, he added.

"Putin now has to pay much for what North Korea has to offer. He wouldn't have had to pay a lot to North Korea in the past. But the situation has changed now. Russia is isolated, desperate, with many countries refusing to give weapons."

Chinese President Xi Jinping attends the plenary session of the 2023 BRICS Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, Aug. 23. Reuters-Yonhap

How China will respond to the burgeoning North Korea-Russia military cooperation is also being closely watched by officials in South Korea and the United States.

"China very much wants to not lose control over these critical developments on its periphery. It ostensibly will acknowledge broad support for the so called 'anti-imperialist' movement by North Korea and Russia," Cronin said.

"But under the surface, China is quite concerned about Russia and North Korea for destabilizing the situation in Ukraine or in the Chinese periphery, especially on the Korean Peninsula."

Pacheco Pardo said the North Korean leader may soon reach out to China to explain about the summit with Putin. But he commented it remains to be seen whether a meeting between Kim and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will take place soon.

"Xi has been reluctant to meet many leaders. He didn't show up at the G20 summit nor the U.N. General Assembly currently taking place in New York," the professor said.